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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics

Geopolitics

1637 related markets tracked across sources for Geopolitics.

Open Markets

274

Total Volume

$1,700,294,255

24h Volume

$340,050,668

Total Liquidity

$84,013,624

Open Markets

274

Total Volume

$1,700,294,255

24h Volume

$340,050,668

Total Liquidity

$84,013,624

Related Topics

AIETF

Topics

Crypto

Bitcoin576

Politics

Middle East379Geopolitics274Politics4170US Politics2359Election3221

Macro

Corporate Actions202Fed113Commodities145Equities139Business & Corporate294

Sports

Sports5799Soccer3192Esports345FIFA World Cup1275Golf79Baseball695Basketball416American Football305

Tech

Tech654

Science

Space133

Theme

Exchange554Stablecoin424

Entity

Binance411

Related Crypto Assets

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Related News

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsBitcoin falls below $66K as US and Iran launch new strikesCointelegraphPeace talks eyed as 2027 deadline looms, markets edge NoBlockchain.NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsRussia Sanctions British Teen Over Crypto Sanctions ReportBlockchain.NewsRussia targets British 17-year-old for alleging digital assets were skirting sanctionsCointelegraph

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US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

6.3%6mo
December 31
December 31
+3.0%78%
October 31
October 31
+9.0%75%
August 31
August 31
+7.0%63%

+14 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$298.1M
24h Vol$9.6M
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

1.3%
July 31
July 31
+12.5%82%
June 30
June 30
+17.0%75%
June 19
June 19
56%

+20 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$42.1M
24h Vol$4.4M
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

0.6%17d
Yes
Yes
-0.0%1%
No
No
+0.0%99%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$53.3M
24h Vol$856.8K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

15.5%17d
July 31
July 31
+9.5%81%
June 30
June 30
+15.5%63%
June 15
June 15
+10.0%26%

+15 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$31.9M
24h Vol$867.6K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

0.7%6mo
December 31
December 31
19%
July 31
July 31
-2.5%7%
June 30
June 30
+0.7%3%

+3 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$26.3M
24h Vol$186.9K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6mo
Yes
Yes
13%
No
No
88%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$19.9M
24h Vol$78.2K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

3.8%17d
June 30
June 30
-6.5%13%
June 15
June 15
-3.8%3%
June 12
June 12
-0.8%1%

+1 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.5M
24h Vol$444.9K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

3.9%17d
September 30
September 30
+0.5%21%
June 30
June 30
-3.9%5%
June 22
June 22
-2.6%3%

+4 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$4.6M
24h Vol$175.1K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

4.0%6mo
December 31
December 31
+1.5%46%
October 31
October 31
+4.0%33%
June 30
June 30
-1.3%3%

+1 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$3.6M
24h Vol$32.6K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

0.3%17d
Yes
Yes
99%
No
No
1%
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.1M
24h Vol$27.4K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Iran closes its airspace by...?

Iran closes its airspace by...?

14.2%
December 31
December 31
-9.0%38%
August 31
August 31
-7.0%33%
July 31
July 31
-14.0%28%

+9 more outcomes

77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.6M
24h Vol$404.8K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

2.0%6mo
December 31
December 31
+2.0%34%
October 31
October 31
+0.5%20%
June 30
June 30
3%

+1 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$380.5K
24h Vol$11.2K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US x Russia military clash by...?

US x Russia military clash by...?

1.0%6mo
December 31,
December 31,
+1.0%6%
June 30,
June 30,
-0.1%1%
December 31
December 31
-0.1%0%

+1 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$884.8K
24h Vol$132.5K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US military action against Cuba by...?

US military action against Cuba by...?

2.0%6mo
December 31
December 31
-2.0%38%
March 31
March 31
-1.8%0%
January 31
January 31
0%
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$6M
24h Vol$9.3K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

0.3%17d
Yes
Yes
3%
No
No
97%
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$19.9K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
NATO x Russia military clash by...?

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

1.2%6mo
December 31
December 31
+0.5%16%
June 30
June 30
+1.2%3%
December 31, 2025
December 31, 2025
-0.1%0%

+1 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.5M
24h Vol$7.6K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

0.1%17d
Yes
Yes
1%
No
No
99%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.8M
24h Vol$14.3K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

0.5%6mo
Yes
Yes
10%
No
No
+0.0%91%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.9M
24h Vol$14.6K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Israel military action against Yemen by...?

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

2.5%17d
June 30
June 30
-2.5%13%
March 31
March 31
+4.0%0%
May 31
May 31
0%

+2 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.1M
24h Vol$12K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
China x Japan military clash before 2027?

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

1.0%6mo
Yes
Yes
+0.0%11%
No
No
-0.0%90%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$738.6K
24h Vol$8.2K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

0.5%6mo
Petro - Colombia President
Petro - Colombia President
-0.5%59%
Starmer - UK PM
Starmer - UK PM
-0.5%22%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
-0.6%9%

+21 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$812.2K
24h Vol$3.3K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

1.0%6mo
Yes
Yes
-0.0%13%
No
No
+0.0%88%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$10.2M
24h Vol$4.6K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?

1.5%6mo
December 31
December 31
+1.5%16%
June 30
June 30
+0.1%2%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$432.6K
24h Vol$5.5K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

1.7%6mo
Yes
Yes
-0.0%3%
No
No
+0.0%97%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$257.3K
24h Vol$6.6K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

1.5%6mo
Yes
Yes
+0.0%20%
No
No
-0.0%80%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.8M
24h Vol$4.7K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?

US-Iran nuclear deal?

3.0%18d
Before July
Before July
+3.0%17%
Before August
Before August
+6.0%33%
Before September
Before September
+6.0%39%

+8 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$104.4K
24h Vol$5.5K
KalshiKALSHI
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

1.8%17d
June 30
June 30
-1.8%3%
October 31
October 31
-0.6%0%
December 31
December 31
-0.1%0%

+4 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$4M
24h Vol$2.6K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

6mo
Yes
Yes
28%
No
No
73%
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.2M
24h Vol$2.1K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

6mo
December 31
December 31
5%
April 30
April 30
-0.1%0%
June 30
June 30
+0.1%0%
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$5.9M
24h Vol$947.3
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

0.1%6mo
December 31
December 31
-2.5%27%
June 30
June 30
+0.1%4%
March 31
March 31
+1.0%0%

+1 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$772.4K
24h Vol$4.8K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

2.0%6mo
Somaliland
Somaliland
+1.5%35%
Egypt
Egypt
-7.5%29%
Qatar
Qatar
19%

+9 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$708K
24h Vol$3.5K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

0.6%6mo
8
8
+1.6%31%
9
9
+0.6%27%
10
10
+0.1%15%

+13 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.5M
24h Vol$915.4
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

0.6%17d
Yes
Yes
-0.0%3%
No
No
+0.0%97%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$685.3K
24h Vol$1.1K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

6mo
Yes
Yes
21%
No
No
80%
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$489.8K
24h Vol$1.1K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?

2.3%17d
Yes
Yes
-0.0%2%
No
No
+0.0%98%
61 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$57.2K
24h Vol$35.7K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

6mo
Manifold Markets
Yes
1.2%
Manifold Markets
No
98.8%
Community forecast27 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$167.1K
24h Vol$5.3K
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Who will attend the NATO Summit?

Who will attend the NATO Summit?

0.1%25d
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio
-1.0%90%
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
-0.1%89%
JD Vance
JD Vance
+1.0%8%
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$103.8K
24h Vol$1.1K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US strike on Mexico by...?

US strike on Mexico by...?

1.5%6mo
December 31
December 31
+1.5%13%
January 31
January 31
0%
March 31
March 31
+0.5%0%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$3.4M
24h Vol$1.3K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

0.1%17d
June 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
-0.1%0%
December 31
December 31
0%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$4.2M
24h Vol$466.9
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will any country leave NATO by...?

Will any country leave NATO by...?

0.1%6mo
2026
2026
5%
June 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
-0.1%1%
2025
2025
-0.1%0%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.1M
24h Vol$259.5
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

2y
Trump bans abortion nationwide
Trump bans abortion nationwide
4.4%
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide
11%
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
Trump bans all vaccines nationwide
1.6%

+248 more outcomes

Community forecast1,631 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$1M
24h Vol$479.2
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

0.5%6mo
New Zealand
New Zealand
-0.5%23%
Italy
Italy
19%
Belgium
Belgium
+0.5%19%

+7 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$717.3K
24h Vol$299.7
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

2.5%6mo
Yes
Yes
-0.0%54%
No
No
+0.0%46%
79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$172.5K
24h Vol$1.5K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? [Polymarket]

18d
Manifold Markets
Yes
42%
Manifold Markets
No
58%
Community forecast186 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$138.2K
24h Vol$68.8K
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

19d
Manifold Markets
The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic
100%
Manifold Markets
The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"
100%
Manifold Markets
The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act
6.7%

+23 more outcomes

Community forecast592 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$364.2K
24h Vol$350
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
China coup attempt before 2027?

China coup attempt before 2027?

0.4%6mo
Yes
Yes
3%
No
No
97%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$138.7K
24h Vol$827.9
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

2.5%6mo
Yes
Yes
+0.0%40%
No
No
-0.0%60%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$142.5K
24h Vol$735.2
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

6mo
Yes
Yes
6%
No
No
95%
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.4M
24h Vol$138.8
PolymarketPOLYMARKET