Geopolitics
3,449 markets tracked all-time for Geopolitics, settled ones included. A market can appear under several topics.
Open Markets
1,950
Total Volume
$2,660,518,711
24h Volume
$3,406,523
Total Liquidity
$108,536,984
Related Crypto Assets
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
2.0 pt (24h)2d
-2.0pt74%
+3.0pt22%
+0.4pt3%
+5 more outcomes
High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$30.7M
24h Vol$1.6M
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
3mo
83.2%
16.8%
CoinRithm referenceNo83%· 8 pt venue spread
High quality (92)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$66.5M
24h Vol$138.7K
POLYMARKET
US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
3mo
-1.8pt55%
29.7%
12.6%
+17 more outcomes
High quality (85)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$28.8M
24h Vol$182K
POLYMARKET
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
6.0 pt (24h)3mo
+0.3pt100%
+0.1pt100%
+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$30.3M
24h Vol$150.2K
POLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
+1.0pt93.1%
-1.0pt6.9%
High quality (90)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$26M
24h Vol$113.1K
POLYMARKET
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
0.1 pt (24h)3mo
-0.1pt96%
+0.1pt4%
CoinRithm referenceNo96%· 1 pt venue spread
High quality (91)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$41.6M
24h Vol$59.5K
POLYMARKET
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
0.3 pt (24h)3mo
8%
-0.3pt1%
0%
+7 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$73.3M
24h Vol$21K
POLYMARKET
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
0.6 pt (24h)3mo
-0.5pt22%
-1.5pt14%
-0.6pt5%
+9 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$14M
24h Vol$101K
POLYMARKET
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
1.0 pt (24h)22d
+0.3pt9%
8%
-0.3pt7%
+28 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$24.1M
24h Vol$54.8K
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
0.6 pt (24h)13d
+0.6pt100%
+4.5pt100%
+3.3pt100%
+2 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$4.1M
24h Vol$311.8K
POLYMARKET
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
0.9 pt (24h)3mo
-0.9pt76.8%
+3.6pt9.1%
-0.3pt4%
+13 more outcomes
High quality (84)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$7.5M
24h Vol$74.6K
POLYMARKET
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
0.5 pt (24h)6mo
48.8%
+1.0pt30.9%
-0.5pt15.4%
+9 more outcomes
Medium quality (70)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$11.4M
24h Vol$30.1K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt10%
+0.5pt6%
-0.1pt3%
+6 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$17.6M
24h Vol$18.1K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
1mo
+6.0pt32%
-3.0pt21%
10%
+7 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$8.2M
24h Vol$39.7K
KALSHI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
3mo
82.2%
17.8%
CoinRithm referenceNo82%· 1 pt venue spread
High quality (86)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$11.8M
24h Vol$15.7K
POLYMARKET
Iran full airspace closure by which date?
2.0 pt (24h)3mo
+0.5pt25%
14%
-2.0pt6%
+8 more outcomes
Medium quality (74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$9.6M
24h Vol$14.5K
POLYMARKET
NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
0.5 pt (24h)3mo
-0.5pt26%
+0.5pt12%
-0.1pt0%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (71)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$6.9M
24h Vol$14.2K
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt92.1%
+1.0pt7.9%
High quality (82)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.3M
24h Vol$28K
POLYMARKETWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
0.1 pt (24h)14d
+0.1pt99%
-0.1pt1%
CoinRithm referenceNo99%· 49 pt venue spread
High quality (88)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.3M
24h Vol$38.4K
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
14d
+0.7pt92.1%
-0.4pt3%
2%
+16 more outcomes
Medium quality (64)Spread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$5.7M
24h Vol$13.9K
POLYMARKET
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
2.8 pt (24h)3mo
100%
-1.0pt48%
+1.0pt46%
+32 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.6M
24h Vol$20.2K
KALSHI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
0.5 pt (24h)9mo
70%
+0.5pt67%
65%
+15 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.7M
24h Vol$7.3K
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
+1.0pt14%
6%
0%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.9M
24h Vol$23.9K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
0.1 pt (24h)14d
-0.8pt4%
-0.5pt0%
-0.3pt0%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (50)Spread unknownHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.3M
24h Vol$36K
POLYMARKET
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
4.0 pt (24h)1mo
-4.0pt40%
-2.0pt17%
-2.0pt6%
+6 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.5M
24h Vol$12.5K
POLYMARKET
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
+0.5pt33%
28%
28%
+17 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$664K
24h Vol$47.9K
POLYMARKET
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
3mo
87.1%
12.9%
High quality (81)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$12.7K
POLYMARKET
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
3mo
-2.0pt42%
30%
-3.0pt17%
+38 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.6M
24h Vol$8.7K
KALSHI
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
+1.0pt70%
+0.5pt62%
+2.0pt48%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$754.2K
24h Vol$18.7K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
0.1 pt (24h)14d
+0.1pt100%
-0.1pt0%
High quality (82)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.1M
24h Vol$5.2K
POLYMARKET
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
3.0 pt (24h)2y
-3.0pt78.3%
4.7%
4.7%
+5 more outcomes
High quality (80)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$5.8K
KALSHI
2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
-2.0pt11%
10%
10%
+21 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1M
24h Vol$6.4K
KALSHI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
0.1 pt (24h)3mo
7%
-0.1pt1%
-0.2pt0%
+4 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$29.4M
24h Vol$2.3K
POLYMARKET
Israel military action against Lebanon on?
3.5 pt (24h)14d
+12.9pt100%
+2.6pt100%
+25.1pt100%
+25 more outcomes
Medium quality (63)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$503.6K
24h Vol$5.6K
POLYMARKETIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt7%
-0.1pt2%
-1.1pt0%
+4 more outcomes
Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$17.9M
24h Vol$2.1K
POLYMARKET
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
3mo
20%
9%
-0.2pt3%
+11 more outcomes
Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$7.2M
24h Vol$4.6K
POLYMARKET
Houthis enter Aden by which date?
1.5 pt (24h)3mo
+0.5pt33%
25%
-1.5pt14%
Medium quality (72)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$174.4K
24h Vol$9.7K
POLYMARKET
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
0.1 pt (24h)3mo
-0.5pt26%
+2.0pt17%
-0.1pt4%
Medium quality (68)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$248.4K
24h Vol$6.4K
POLYMARKET
Israel military action against Yemen by which date?
2.5 pt (24h)13d
49%
47.1%
-2.5pt3.9%
+4 more outcomes
High quality (78)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$231.7K
24h Vol$5.7K
POLYMARKET
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
0.1 pt (24h)3mo
+0.1pt94%
-0.1pt6%
High quality (81)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.4M
24h Vol$4.3K
POLYMARKET
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
3mo
96%
4%
High quality (77)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$10.7M
24h Vol$1.2K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
1y
88.1%
11.9%
High quality (81)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.2M
24h Vol$4.1K
POLYMARKET
Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
18.4 pt (24h)3mo
+11.0pt99%
+18.4pt96%
5%
Medium quality (65)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$56.9K
24h Vol$13.6K
KALSHI
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
0.1 pt (24h)3mo
-0.1pt3%
+0.1pt0%
-0.1pt0%
Medium quality (70)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$7.8M
24h Vol$1.1K
POLYMARKET
Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt20%
-0.2pt0%
-0.3pt0%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (67)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.8M
24h Vol$1.3K
POLYMARKET
NATO downs another Russian drone by which date?
32.5 pt (24h)13d
+27.3pt97%
+32.5pt96%
Medium quality (69)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$52.9K
24h Vol$5.9K
POLYMARKET
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
3mo
88.1%
11.9%
High quality (76)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.8M
24h Vol$1.5K
POLYMARKET
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
5.0 pt (24h)2y
+5.0pt26%
+0.9pt4%
Medium quality (67)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$3.4M
24h Vol$1K
KALSHI