Geopolitics
2430 related markets tracked across sources for Geopolitics.
Open Markets
877
Total Volume
$2,476,439,630
24h Volume
$5,735,256
Total Liquidity
$127,164,885
Related Crypto Assets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1d
100%
0%
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$22.3M
24h Vol$718.2K
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2.0 pts5mo
-0.0pt76.2%
+0.0pt23.8%
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$49M
24h Vol$266.6K
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
16.9 pts1mo
-8.5pt62%
-11.0pt53%
-14.0pt41%
+2 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.9M
24h Vol$1.1M
POLYMARKET
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
5.0 pts1mo
+0.3pt100%
+0.1pt100%
+0.5pt100%
+13 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$10.5M
24h Vol$602.7K
POLYMARKET
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by which date?
1mo
100%
100%
100%
+3 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$5.3M
24h Vol$893.4K
POLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1.0 pts5mo
-0.0pt90.1%
+0.0pt9.9%
90 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$23.3M
24h Vol$140.8K
POLYMARKET
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
0.1 pts5mo
-1.0pt12%
-1.0pt6%
-0.2pt0%
+4 more outcomes
55 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidity
Total Vol$28.9M
24h Vol$66.2K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
3.0 pts1mo
-1.0pt32%
-3.0pt13%
7%
+4 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$11.5M
24h Vol$150.3K
POLYMARKET
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
0.1 pts5mo
96%
4%
CoinRithm reference4%· 1 pt range
90 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$39.2M
24h Vol$35.3K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
0.2 pts3d
+1.0pt58%
46%
-3.0pt24%
+9 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$15M
24h Vol$97.2K
KALSHI
Iran full airspace closure by which date?
2.1 pts1mo
-10.0pt51%
+3.5pt44%
+3.0pt33%
+7 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$6.8M
24h Vol$151.7K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
5mo
55.5%
44.5%
88 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$6.3M
24h Vol$128.3K
POLYMARKET
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
1.9 pts2d
-11.0pt43%
-14.0pt24%
-18.5pt8%
+5 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.5M
24h Vol$86.7K
POLYMARKET
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by which date?
0.1 pts5mo
13%
-1.0pt6%
3%
+4 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$17.6M
24h Vol$31.5K
POLYMARKET
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by which date?
0.3 pts2d
+1.0pt7%
+0.3pt2%
-1.4pt0%
+5 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$8.5M
24h Vol$66.2K
POLYMARKET
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
1mo
57%
-0.2pt35%
-0.3pt5%
+31 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$16.3M
24h Vol$26.2K
POLYMARKET
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
2.0 pts5mo
+0.0pt95%
-0.0pt5%
CoinRithm reference5%· 9 pt range
82 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$10.5M
24h Vol$36K
POLYMARKET
US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
7.5 pts1mo
+4.5pt89%
+5.0pt84%
+1.5pt69%
+6 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$232.1K
POLYMARKET
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
0.3 pts2mo
11%
7%
-1.6pt5%
+68 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceSudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)29%· 2 pt range
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$23M
24h Vol$12.2K
POLYMARKET
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
1.8 pts5mo
21.2%
-0.3pt9.7%
-0.8pt9.7%
+9 more outcomes
81 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.5M
24h Vol$159K
POLYMARKET
Iran military action against a gulf state on?
0.8 pts2d
100%
+24.4pt100%
+5.0pt100%
+20 more outcomes
55 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.5M
24h Vol$71K
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
12.9 pts2mo
+12.9pt32%
+0.5pt26.8%
-1.0pt17.5%
+16 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$3.3M
24h Vol$39.7K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
0.5 pts1y
87%
+0.0pt13%
83 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.2M
24h Vol$28.5K
POLYMARKET
US military action against Cuba by which date?
1.0 pts5mo
-1.0pt31%
0%
-1.8pt0%
72 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.1M
24h Vol$5.9K
POLYMARKET
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by which date?
2d
+0.5pt13%
2%
-0.4pt0%
+4 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.3M
24h Vol$36.5K
POLYMARKETWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
0.3 pts2mo
97%
3%
CoinRithm reference3%· 3 pt range
87 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.2M
24h Vol$29K
POLYMARKET
NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
5.0 pts5mo
-5.0pt24%
+7.0pt13%
10%
+3 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.2M
24h Vol$9.3K
POLYMARKET
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
0.5 pts5mo
93%
+0.0pt7%
82 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.1M
24h Vol$9.1K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
6.0 pts22d
-0.1pt54.5%
+0.1pt45.5%
81 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$819.4K
24h Vol$32.3K
POLYMARKET
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
0.4 pts2d
+73.0pt100%
+38.1pt100%
+83.5pt100%
+17 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2M
24h Vol$11.6K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
1.0 pts5mo
+0.0pt88.1%
-0.0pt11.9%
79 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.2M
24h Vol$5K
POLYMARKET
Will Iran target Ukraine by which date?
0.3 pts2mo
-4.0pt8%
-0.3pt5%
75 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$112.4K
24h Vol$110.1K
POLYMARKET
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by which date?
27.1 pts2d
-27.1pt33%
-2.0pt0%
75 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$129.3K
24h Vol$91.7K
POLYMARKET
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
7.0 pts5mo
-6.0pt44%
+3.0pt35%
31%
+37 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceJohn Brennan44%· 5 pt range
70 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.1M
24h Vol$9.2K
KALSHI
US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
0.4 pts5mo
-0.5pt10%
-0.4pt2%
-0.1pt0%
+1 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$871.2K
24h Vol$9.5K
POLYMARKET
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
0.8 pts2d
+0.8pt4%
-0.5pt1%
1%
+5 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$487.1K
24h Vol$12.6K
POLYMARKET
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by which date?
4.5 pts
+4.5pt36%
+0.5pt8%
-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
71 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$947.4K
24h Vol$5.2K
POLYMARKET
Iran invades Kuwait by which date?
0.1 pts1mo
+0.1pt3%
+0.1pt0%
75 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$599.5K
24h Vol$7K
POLYMARKET
European military action against Iran by which date?
0.1 pts1mo
+0.5pt5%
+0.1pt1%
75 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$204.3K
24h Vol$18.1K
POLYMARKET
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
0.3 pts5mo
92%
8%
CoinRithm reference8%· 0 pt range
81 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$211.3K
24h Vol$15.4K
POLYMARKET
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
1.0 pts5mo
-2.5pt31%
-6.5pt30%
-2.0pt28%
+3 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$400.4K
24h Vol$6.6K
POLYMARKET
Who will be arrested before 2027?
7.2 pts
-0.5pt39%
-2.5pt23%
+0.5pt20%
+21 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceJohn Brennan34%· 5 pt range
60 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$238K
24h Vol$9.5K
POLYMARKET
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
0.6 pts1mo
+0.0pt96%
-0.0pt4%
78 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$210.4K
24h Vol$7.3K
POLYMARKET
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
5mo
36%
17%
+1.0pt7%
+2 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.7M
24h Vol$4.6K
POLYMARKET
Israel military action against Yemen by which date?
2.3 pts2d
-2.3pt2%
0%
-0.5pt0%
70 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$128.2K
24h Vol$8.4K
POLYMARKET
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
0.5 pts5mo
+0.5pt5%
+0.1pt0%
-0.1pt0%
68 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$7.7M
24h Vol$1.8K
POLYMARKET
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
5mo
100%
-0.1pt99%
94%
+34 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceKeir Starmer100%· 1 pt range
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.8M
24h Vol$2.6K
KALSHI
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
3.0 pts5mo
-3.0pt49.5%
+1.2pt34.7%
-0.6pt9.5%
+13 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.4M
24h Vol$1.2K
POLYMARKET