Geopolitics

December 31

-3.0%71%

April 30

63%

March 31

-0.5%7%

+6 more outcomes

Before April

-1.0%1%

Before May

-1.0%13%

Before June

+1.0%26%

+2 more outcomes

December 31

76%

June 30

61%

May 31

52%

+7 more outcomes

Ilhan Omar

+2.0%26%

Jack Smith

27%

Bill Clinton

+2.0%12%

+22 more outcomes

5

28%

6

-0.7%25%

4

-3.5%22%

+13 more outcomes

Before May 2026

4%

Before 2027

+1.0%27%

Before Jan 20, 2029

-3.0%60%

+3 more outcomes

March 24

100%

March 27

100%

March 21

100%

+8 more outcomes

$0 / No Acquisition

76%

$600 billion to $899 billion

-2.0%5%

$10 billion to $99 billion

+1.0%6%

+5 more outcomes

March 18

100%

March 20

100%

March 21

100%

+11 more outcomes

June 30

42%

May 31

39%

April 30

33%

+1 more outcomes

March 19

100%

March 20

100%

March 22

100%

+11 more outcomes

War Machine

+3.0%94%

Anaconda

+6.0%12%

Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man

-1.0%2%

+15 more outcomes

Boston

+4.0%99%

Portland

36%

Chicago

-4.0%32%

+7 more outcomes

Donald Trump

5%

Keir Starmer

63%

Emmanuel Macron

26%

+4 more outcomes

April 15

61%

March 31

27%

March 6

0%

+1 more outcomes

Before Jan 2027

16%

Before Jan 21, 2029

+4.0%40%

Before Jan 2028

27%

+2 more outcomes

December 31

83%

June 30

63%

May 15

44%

+6 more outcomes

Israel

100%

Turkiye

-0.1%100%

Hungary

-0.1%100%

+18 more outcomes

Saudi Arabia

7%

UAE

5%

Bahrain

2%

+10 more outcomes

June 30

-15.0%92%

May 31

89%

April 30

83%

+1 more outcomes

Military action through March 31

97%

March 31

1%

March 30

1%

+19 more outcomes

June 30

75%

April 30

48%

April 15

30%

+6 more outcomes

Valar Atomics

+2.0%67%

Aalo Atomics

83%

Antares Nuclear

68%

+7 more outcomes

March 18

100%

March 19

100%

March 22

100%

+11 more outcomes

March 31

41%

March 1

0%

March 2

0%

+4 more outcomes

Israel

100%

Jordan

100%

Saudi Arabia

100%

+35 more outcomes

Aaron Judge

0%

Cristopher Sanchez

4%

Shohei Ohtani

0%

+22 more outcomes

United States

43%

United Kingdom

17%

France

7%

+8 more outcomes

Israel

100%

Jordan

100%

Saudi Arabia

100%

+25 more outcomes

3

51%

≥4

49%

≤1

0%

+1 more outcomes

June 30

92%

May 31

77%

April 30

56%

+22 more outcomes

December 31

-1.5%22%

June 30

-1.9%10%

March 31

-0.4%1%

+1 more outcomes

Saudi Arabia

26%

UAE

23%

Bahrain

8%

+10 more outcomes

March 18

100%

March 21

100%

March 23

100%

+11 more outcomes

April 30

48%

April 20

42%

April 27

42%

+27 more outcomes

7

-0.1%33%

9

18%

8

-0.2%17%

+13 more outcomes

Military action through April 30

49%

April 3

3%

Before April

2%

+29 more outcomes

≤5

53%

6-9

46%

22+

0%

+3 more outcomes

December 31

14%

December 31, 2025

-0.3%0%

March 31

+0.1%0%

+1 more outcomes

<5

96%

5–7

2%

8–10

1%

+4 more outcomes

March 30

7%

March 31

5%

March 29

4%

+11 more outcomes

April 10

65%

April 1

63%

April 8

63%

+27 more outcomes

Ruwais Refinery

100%

Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery

100%

Ras Laffan Industrial City

19%

+11 more outcomes

April 30

14%

March 7

0%

March 14

0%

+1 more outcomes