Geopolitics
2434 related markets tracked across sources for Geopolitics.
Open Markets
881
Total Volume
$2,476,627,332
24h Volume
$5,868,485
Total Liquidity
$127,316,988
Related Crypto Assets
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1d
100%
0%
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$22.3M
24h Vol$718.3K
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2.0 pts5mo
-0.0pt76.2%
+0.0pt23.8%
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$49M
24h Vol$265.8K
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
18.4 pts1mo
-8.5pt62%
-12.5pt52%
-13.5pt41%
+2 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.9M
24h Vol$1.1M
POLYMARKET
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
5.5 pts1mo
+0.3pt100%
+0.1pt100%
+0.5pt100%
+13 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$10.6M
24h Vol$604.6K
POLYMARKET
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by which date?
1mo
100%
100%
100%
+3 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$5.3M
24h Vol$891.4K
POLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1.0 pts5mo
-0.0pt90.1%
+0.0pt9.9%
90 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$23.3M
24h Vol$140.4K
POLYMARKET
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
0.1 pts5mo
-1.0pt12%
-1.0pt6%
-0.2pt0%
+4 more outcomes
55 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidity
Total Vol$28.9M
24h Vol$66.2K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
3.0 pts1mo
-1.0pt32%
-3.0pt13%
7%
+4 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$11.5M
24h Vol$163.6K
POLYMARKET
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
5mo
96%
4%
CoinRithm reference4%· 0 pt range
90 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$39.2M
24h Vol$37.6K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
0.2 pts3d
+1.0pt58%
46%
-3.0pt24%
+9 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$15M
24h Vol$96.8K
KALSHI
Iran full airspace closure by which date?
2.3 pts1mo
-10.5pt51%
+4.0pt45%
+3.0pt33%
+7 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$6.8M
24h Vol$153K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
5mo
55.5%
44.5%
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$6.3M
24h Vol$128.7K
POLYMARKET
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
1.7 pts2d
-10.5pt43%
-14.0pt24%
-18.0pt9%
+5 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.5M
24h Vol$89.5K
POLYMARKET
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by which date?
0.4 pts2d
+1.0pt7%
+0.4pt2%
-1.4pt0%
+5 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$8.5M
24h Vol$66.8K
POLYMARKET
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by which date?
0.1 pts5mo
13%
-1.0pt6%
-0.3pt3%
+4 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$17.6M
24h Vol$28.6K
POLYMARKET
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
1mo
57%
-0.2pt35%
-0.4pt5%
+31 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$16.3M
24h Vol$26.4K
POLYMARKET
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
1.5 pts5mo
+0.0pt95%
-0.0pt5%
CoinRithm reference5%· 9 pt range
83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$10.5M
24h Vol$36.9K
POLYMARKET
US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
7.0 pts1mo
+3.5pt88%
+5.0pt84%
+1.0pt69%
+6 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$231.5K
POLYMARKET
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
0.3 pts2mo
11%
7%
-1.4pt5%
+68 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceSudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)29%· 2 pt range
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$23M
24h Vol$12.2K
POLYMARKET
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
3.3 pts5mo
-2.0pt19.3%
-0.3pt9.7%
-0.3pt9.7%
+9 more outcomes
81 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.5M
24h Vol$169.8K
POLYMARKET
Iran military action against a gulf state on?
0.5 pts2d
100%
+24.4pt100%
+5.0pt100%
+20 more outcomes
55 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.5M
24h Vol$72.3K
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
13.0 pts2mo
+13.0pt32.3%
+0.5pt27.1%
-1.0pt17.7%
+16 more outcomes
88 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$3.3M
24h Vol$40.9K
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
1y
87%
13%
83 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.2M
24h Vol$25.3K
POLYMARKET
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by which date?
0.3 pts2d
+0.5pt13%
+0.3pt1%
-0.4pt0%
+4 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.3M
24h Vol$42.9K
POLYMARKET
US military action against Cuba by which date?
1.0 pts5mo
-1.0pt31%
0%
-1.8pt0%
72 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.1M
24h Vol$5.9K
POLYMARKETWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
0.6 pts2mo
-0.0pt97%
+0.0pt3%
CoinRithm reference3%· 3 pt range
87 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.2M
24h Vol$29.9K
POLYMARKET
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
0.4 pts2d
+73.0pt100%
+38.1pt100%
+83.5pt100%
+17 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2M
24h Vol$16.1K
POLYMARKET
NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
5.0 pts5mo
-5.0pt24%
+0.5pt11%
+6.5pt11%
+3 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.2M
24h Vol$8.8K
POLYMARKET
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
0.3 pts5mo
93%
7%
83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.1M
24h Vol$9.1K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
5.0 pts22d
-0.1pt54.5%
+0.1pt45.5%
82 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$820.9K
24h Vol$33.9K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
1.0 pts5mo
+0.0pt88.1%
-0.0pt11.9%
79 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.2M
24h Vol$5.1K
POLYMARKET
Will Iran target Ukraine by which date?
0.6 pts2mo
8%
-0.6pt4%
76 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$140.9K
24h Vol$137.9K
POLYMARKET
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by which date?
0.6 pts2d
+0.6pt34%
-2.0pt0%
77 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$131.3K
24h Vol$93.7K
POLYMARKET
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
0.6 pts2d
+0.6pt4%
-0.5pt1%
1%
+5 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$499.9K
24h Vol$22.1K
POLYMARKET
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
7.0 pts5mo
-6.0pt44%
31%
-2.0pt30%
+37 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceJohn Brennan44%· 5 pt range
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.1M
24h Vol$9.8K
KALSHI
US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
0.1 pts5mo
10%
-0.1pt2%
-0.1pt0%
+1 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$871.4K
24h Vol$9.5K
POLYMARKET
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by which date?
4.5 pts
+4.5pt36%
+0.5pt8%
-0.3pt1%
+2 more outcomes
71 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$947.6K
24h Vol$5.4K
POLYMARKET
Iran invades Kuwait by which date?
1mo
3%
+0.1pt0%
75 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$599.9K
24h Vol$7.4K
POLYMARKET
European military action against Iran by which date?
0.1 pts1mo
+0.5pt5%
+0.1pt1%
75 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$204.4K
24h Vol$18.1K
POLYMARKET
Who will be arrested before 2027?
4.8 pts
39%
-0.5pt26%
+0.5pt20%
+21 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceJohn Brennan34%· 5 pt range
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$242.2K
24h Vol$13.7K
POLYMARKET
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
0.1 pts5mo
92%
8%
CoinRithm reference8%· 0 pt range
82 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$211.3K
24h Vol$15.5K
POLYMARKET
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
1.0 pts5mo
-2.5pt31%
-7.0pt30%
-2.0pt28%
+3 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$400.4K
24h Vol$6.6K
POLYMARKET
Israel military action against Beirut by which date?
0.9 pts1mo
32%
-0.9pt4%
-0.1pt0%
+1 more outcomes
71 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$167.1K
24h Vol$11.8K
POLYMARKET
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
0.5 pts1mo
+0.0pt96%
4%
78 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$210.4K
24h Vol$7.3K
POLYMARKET
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
5mo
36%
17%
+1.0pt7%
+2 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.7M
24h Vol$4.6K
POLYMARKET
Israel military action against Yemen by which date?
2.1 pts2d
-2.1pt2%
0%
-0.5pt0%
69 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$128.2K
24h Vol$8.4K
POLYMARKET
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
0.5 pts5mo
+0.5pt5%
+0.1pt0%
-0.1pt0%
68 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$7.7M
24h Vol$1.8K
POLYMARKET
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
5mo
100%
-0.1pt99%
94%
+34 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceKeir Starmer100%· 1 pt range
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.8M
24h Vol$2.5K
KALSHI