Geopolitics
3,426 markets tracked all-time for Geopolitics, settled ones included. A market can appear under several topics.
Open Markets
1,944
Total Volume
$2,646,937,094
24h Volume
$2,517,434
Total Liquidity
$106,097,151
Related Crypto Assets
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
3mo
84.2%
15.8%
CoinRithm referenceNo84%· 1 pt venue spread
High quality (92)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$65.8M
24h Vol$339.1K
POLYMARKET
US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
3mo
+2.6pt66%
+4.5pt41%
+5.0pt24%
+17 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$27.8M
24h Vol$305.5K
POLYMARKET
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
7d
79%
-0.1pt17%
3%
+5 more outcomes
High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$27.1M
24h Vol$255.5K
POLYMARKET
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
2.9 pt (24h)3mo
-8.0pt24%
-5.5pt17%
-4.5pt8%
+9 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$13.2M
24h Vol$412.3K
POLYMARKET
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
3mo
8%
1%
0%
+7 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$73.2M
24h Vol$59.5K
POLYMARKET
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
+0.3pt100%
+0.1pt100%
+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$29.7M
24h Vol$70K
POLYMARKET
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt92.1%
+1.0pt7.9%
High quality (89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$25.8M
24h Vol$58.9K
POLYMARKET
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
0.1 pt (24h)3mo
+0.1pt96%
-0.1pt4%
CoinRithm referenceNo96%· 0 pt venue spread
High quality (89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$41.2M
24h Vol$34.3K
POLYMARKET
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
2.5 pt (24h)3mo
-2.5pt79%
+2.5pt21%
CoinRithm referenceNo79%· 0 pt venue spread
High quality (88)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$11.5M
24h Vol$117.3K
POLYMARKET
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
24.5 pt (24h)1mo
+15.0pt63%
+19.0pt49%
+21.5pt42%
+6 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2M
24h Vol$205.9K
POLYMARKET
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
0.1 pt (24h)27d
8%
+0.3pt8%
-0.5pt6%
+28 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$23.8M
24h Vol$11K
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
11.0 pt (24h)18d
+7.0pt92%
+10.5pt91%
+11.0pt87%
+2 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.2M
24h Vol$145.6K
POLYMARKET
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)6mo
+2.0pt45.6%
+0.5pt30.4%
-3.0pt16.8%
+9 more outcomes
Medium quality (71)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$11.1M
24h Vol$20.7K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
1.0 pt (24h)19d
29%
-1.0pt23%
-1.0pt12%
+7 more outcomes
Medium quality (60)Spread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$8.1M
24h Vol$22.4K
KALSHIWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
1y
88.1%
11.9%
High quality (86)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.2M
24h Vol$58.4K
POLYMARKET
Iran full airspace closure by which date?
2.0 pt (24h)3mo
-10.5pt22%
-2.0pt7%
+0.3pt0%
+7 more outcomes
Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$9.5M
24h Vol$15.8K
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
0.1 pt (24h)18d
-0.1pt91.1%
+0.1pt3%
-0.1pt3%
+16 more outcomes
High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$5.7M
24h Vol$22.4K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
3mo
11%
5%
2%
+6 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$17.5M
24h Vol$6K
POLYMARKET
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
9mo
70%
+0.5pt67%
66%
+15 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.5M
24h Vol$11.1K
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
+1.0pt94.1%
-1.0pt5.9%
High quality (81)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.3M
24h Vol$15.4K
POLYMARKETWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
0.1 pt (24h)18d
+0.1pt99%
-0.1pt1%
CoinRithm referenceNo99%· 0 pt venue spread
High quality (87)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.1M
24h Vol$23.5K
POLYMARKET
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
+1.0pt94.1%
-1.0pt5.9%
High quality (82)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.4M
24h Vol$33.1K
POLYMARKET
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
1.5 pt (24h)3mo
100%
-2.0pt48%
45%
+32 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.5M
24h Vol$8.1K
KALSHI
Will Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
1.5 pt (24h)3mo
+1.5pt24%
-0.2pt0%
-0.3pt0%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (68)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.7M
24h Vol$5.3K
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
0.5 pt (24h)3mo
+0.5pt14%
6%
0%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.9M
24h Vol$9.1K
POLYMARKET
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
2.7 pt (24h)18d
+2.7pt6%
+1.6pt2%
-0.5pt0%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (71)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.2M
24h Vol$13.4K
POLYMARKET
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
7.5 pt (24h)3mo
+7.5pt19%
11%
+0.5pt11%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (69)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$867.3K
24h Vol$14.6K
POLYMARKET
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
3.0 pt (24h)3mo
-3.0pt69%
64%
-3.0pt45%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$677.6K
24h Vol$16.1K
POLYMARKET
US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
2.7 pt (24h)3mo
+2.7pt6%
-0.1pt0%
0%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (69)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$982.3K
24h Vol$9.3K
POLYMARKET
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
0.5 pt (24h)3mo
+1.5pt31%
27%
-2.0pt27%
+17 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$545.8K
24h Vol$9K
POLYMARKET
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
3.6 pt (24h)3mo
-3.6pt91%
+3.6pt9%
High quality (82)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$291K
24h Vol$17.4K
POLYMARKET
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt25%
-1.5pt13%
+0.9pt4%
Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$232K
24h Vol$15.1K
POLYMARKET
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
0.1 pt (24h)3mo
6%
-0.1pt1%
-0.2pt0%
+4 more outcomes
Medium quality (72)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$29.3M
24h Vol$1.6K
POLYMARKET
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
1.4 pt (24h)3mo
+1.4pt97%
-1.4pt3%
High quality (81)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$359K
24h Vol$7K
POLYMARKET
NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
0.5 pt (24h)3mo
+0.5pt22%
-1.0pt8%
-0.1pt0%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (69)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$6.7M
24h Vol$4.2K
POLYMARKET
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
7.5 pt (24h)3mo
-6.0pt66%
+4.0pt39%
+7.5pt25%
+1 more outcomes
Low quality (47)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$152.9K
24h Vol$9.6K
POLYMARKET
Israel military action against Yemen by which date?
3.0 pt (24h)18d
-3.0pt6%
0%
-0.5pt0%
+2 more outcomes
Medium quality (68)Tight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$198.4K
24h Vol$5.2K
POLYMARKET
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
0.3 pt (24h)3mo
+0.5pt21%
+1.0pt10%
+0.3pt3%
+11 more outcomes
Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$7.1M
24h Vol$2.1K
POLYMARKET
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
+1.0pt90.1%
-1.0pt9.9%
High quality (79)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.7M
24h Vol$4.1K
POLYMARKET
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by which date?
0.1 pt (24h)3mo
6%
+0.1pt1%
-0.3pt0%
+4 more outcomes
Medium quality (71)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$8.4M
24h Vol$1.1K
POLYMARKET
Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
22.0 pt (24h)1mo
+44.0pt66.1%
+22.0pt29.6%
4.3%
Low quality (47)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$41.2K
24h Vol$11.2K
KALSHI
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
5.0 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt36%
-2.0pt28%
+5.0pt20%
+38 more outcomes
Medium quality (72)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.6M
24h Vol$4K
KALSHIWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
18d
100%
0%
High quality (80)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.1M
24h Vol$2.2K
POLYMARKET
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
2.0 pt (24h)2y
-2.0pt23%
-2.8pt3%
Medium quality (72)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.3M
24h Vol$1K
KALSHI
Foreign intervention in Gaza by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt19%
-0.3pt2%
-0.3pt0%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (71)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.1M
24h Vol$2.5K
POLYMARKET
Houthis enter Aden by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt28%
-5.5pt19%
-0.5pt12%
Medium quality (72)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$22.5K
24h Vol$9.2K
POLYMARKET
Israel military action against Lebanon on?
13.2 pt (24h)18d
+12.9pt100%
+2.6pt100%
+25.1pt100%
+25 more outcomes
Medium quality (56)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$481.2K
24h Vol$4.3K
POLYMARKET
Houthis seize an oil tanker by which date?
0.5 pt (24h)18d
+0.5pt13%
-1.5pt4%
Medium quality (69)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$15.9K
24h Vol$9.3K
POLYMARKET