KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore September 9%-3.0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$90.8K
Liquidity
$4.5M
High liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 10.0%
Spread
11.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 9, 26, 2:00 PMSep 1, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before September9%
Compare venues· Before Jan 20, 2029
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · auto | Medium | 36% | — | $245.4K | $1.3M | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Medium | 72% | — | $90.8K | $4.5M | 11 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
3.0%1mo
-2.0%36%
-3.0%16%
-2.0%11%
+4 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$9.5M
24h Vol$245.4K
POLYMARKETRules
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.
- Clarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments.
- It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution.
- Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has "agreed to, signed, or accepted" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.
- Clarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose "verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program." A restriction is "verifiable" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$90.8kJul 211d of dataJul 12
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If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.
- Clarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments.
- It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution.
- Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has "agreed to, signed, or accepted" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.
- Clarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose "verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program." A restriction is "verifiable" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event.