KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 33%-1.0ptLeader of 11 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$24.2K
Liquidity
$4.2M
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
May 21, 26, 3:00 PMOct 1, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
0%
Rules
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBC
- An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.
- Clarification (04/19/26): The Agreement Long rulebook variable defines the nature of the qualifying instrument: it must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments.
- It does not impose a precondition that the signing itself must occur before resolution.
- Because the Payout Criterion is satisfied if the United States has "agreed to, signed, or accepted" such an instrument, both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms of what will be a qualifying written agreement is sufficient to resolve the market to Yes, even if the formal signing has not yet taken place.
- Clarification (06/02/26): A qualifying instrument must impose "verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program." A restriction is "verifiable" only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard (a defined limit, prohibition, quantity, or monitoring provision) against which compliance could in principle be confirmed; a general expression of intent that fixes no such standard is not considered “verifiable” for the purposes of this event.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference December 31 13% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Polymarket — US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? · December 31 13%
- Also available on Limitless — US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? · August 31 50%
Open markets
Commodities
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
- ↓ $80+27.4pt100%
- ↓ $85+9.3pt100%
- ↓ $75+27.9pt100%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10M
- 24h Vol
- $430.3K
KALSHIGas prices in the US in Aug 2026
- Above 2.7099%
- Above 3.5099%
- Above 3.6099%
+32 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $804.3K
- 24h Vol
- $74.4K
KALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.090099%
- Above 4.085099%
- Above 4.080099%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $72K
- 24h Vol
- $71.9K
KALSHIFlorida gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.915099%
- Above 3.885099%
- Above 3.905099%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $62.9K
- 24h Vol
- $62.9K
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.02099%
- Above 3.90099%
- Above 3.92099%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $158.4K
- 24h Vol
- $60.5K
KALSHIHow high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- $115.01 or above-1.4pt25%
- $120.01 or above-1.9pt21%
- $125.01 or above-0.2pt18%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- EV commodity prices on Aug 26, 2026
- Will the federal gas tax be suspended?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- California gas prices tomorrow
- Texas gas prices tomorrow
- Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 27, 2026?
- New York gas prices tomorrow
- Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 28, 2026?
- Illinois gas prices tomorrow
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US-Iran nuclear deal??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 20, 2029 at 33% as of August 27, 2026.
- When does US-Iran nuclear deal? resolve?
- US-Iran nuclear deal? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is US-Iran nuclear deal? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is US-Iran nuclear deal? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Limitless.