US-Iran nuclear deal?

4.0% (24h)25d

KalshiUS residents onlyKYC required2% fee

Market quality 29 • Low qualityThin market96pt disagreement

Alerts

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Decision support

Current implied probability

Before May 7%

Market quality

29 / 100

Low quality

Bid / Ask

6.0% / 7.0%

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Last updated: Apr 5, 10:38 PM

Resolves

May 1, 2026, 2:00 PM

24h Volume

$923.4

Liquidity

$15.5K

Spread

16.7%

Wide spread

7d Change

Low liquidityThin marketHigh ambiguity

Started Mar 12, 2026, 5:00 PMEnds May 1, 2026, 2:00 PM

Trends

No chart data available.

Outcome24hChance

Before May

+4.0%7%

Before June

+8.0%17%

Before August

+3.0%28%

Before 2027

+6.0%39%

Before April

0.0%1%

Also available on Polymarket

96pt disagreement

Kalshi

Last updated: 4 minutes ago

0pt-

Before 2027

0pt39%

Before August

0pt28%

Before June

0pt17%

Vol

$33.2K

24h Vol

$923.4

Liq

$15.5K

Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: Low liquidity

US residents onlyKYC required2% feeSettles in USD

Polymarket

Last updated: 4 days agoStale

▲ +100pt100%

Before 2027

▼ 39pt-

Before August

▼ 28pt-

Before June

▼ 17pt-

Vol

$1.6M

24h Vol

$14.3K

Liq

$150.8K

Spread: Spread unknownLiquidity: High liquidity

Not available in USNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC

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Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Also available on Polymarket

96pt disagreement

Kalshi

Last updated: 4 minutes ago

0pt-

Before 2027

0pt39%

Before August

0pt28%

Before June

0pt17%

Vol

$33.2K

24h Vol

$923.4

Liq

$15.5K

Spread: Wide spreadLiquidity: Low liquidity

US residents onlyKYC required2% feeSettles in USD

Polymarket

Last updated: 11 minutes ago

▲ +97pt97%

Before 2027

▼ 39pt-

Before August

▼ 28pt-

Before June

▼ 17pt-

Vol

$344.8K

24h Vol

$38.9K

Liq

$64K

Spread: Moderate spreadLiquidity: Medium liquidity

Not available in USNo KYC2% feeSettles in USDC

View on Polymarket Open on Polymarket

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Rules

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If the United States agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Open on Kalshi

Topics

Geopolitics

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