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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Commodities
  3. US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

CommoditiesOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East2mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
August 31
August 31 26%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

89 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$291.1K

Liquidity

$742.9K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

20.0% / 21.0%

Spread

5.0%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Jun 21, 26, 9:41 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

August 3126%

Rules

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics.

Polymarket
  • This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
  • Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran.
  • Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions.
  • Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$65,003.27+1.15%EthereumETH$1,752.94+1.22%SolanaSOL$73.58-0.81%DogecoinDOGE$0.0839+0.48%XRPXRP$1.14-0.61%BNBBNB$597.93+1.39%

Related News

Iran re-closes Hormuz as Polymarket Yes odds tick up to 2.55%Blockchain.NewsIran closes Hormuz again as talks restart, Polymarket Yes dips to 39.5%Blockchain.NewsTrump floats Hormuz tolls as Polymarket Petro-out odds slip to 51.5%Blockchain.NewsIran, US clash on Hormuz status as Polymarket prices 58.5% No by July 31Blockchain.NewsIran Threatens Strait of Hormuz Closure Again: Crypto Markets Face an Energy Shock TestBlockchain ReporterLebanon ceasefire tested as Polymarket puts Hormuz normalization at 6.5%Blockchain.News

Rules

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics.

Polymarket
  • This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
  • Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran.
  • Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions.
  • Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.