PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 13%Leader of 9 outcomes
December 31 13%Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$55.3K
Liquidity
$346.4K
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
159
7d Change
-2.1 pts
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jun 21, 26, 9:41 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
August 13Lost
Before close: 0% ·
August 18Lost
Before close: 0% ·
August 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
July 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
June 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
September 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US-Iran nuclear deal [Kalshi] resolves the same as US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by which date?
PolymarketUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
PolymarketWhat will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
PolymarketUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsRules
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics.
- This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
- Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran.
- Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions.
- Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — US-Iran nuclear deal? · Before Jan 20, 2029 36%
- Also available on Limitless — US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? · August 31 50%
