PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 8%-2.0ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$46.9K
Liquidity
$1.2M
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
160
7d Change
-11.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jun 21, 26, 9:41 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
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Rules
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics.
- This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
- Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran.
- Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions.
- Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — US-Iran nuclear deal? · Before Jan 20, 2029 35%
