Will the Clarity Act become law?
2.0 pts (24h)One-OffCryptoRegulationCommoditiesStablecoinPolitics3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2028 42%+1.0ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$53.7K
Liquidity
$3.3M
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Dec 4, 25, 1:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) become law by December 31 2026?
ForecastExClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
KalshiWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
PolymarketHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
PolymarketCLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Library of Congress
- For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following:
- Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.
- The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
- Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts); Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress; Bills that are vetoed and not overridden; State legislation of any kind
- Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion:
Open markets
CryptoPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+2.1pt100%
- $25M+3.3pt99%
- $50M+6.8pt99%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.8M
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- 72,000+0.2pt100%
- 74,000+1.1pt100%
- 76,000+4.2pt98%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
- $73,000 or above-1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $72,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $381.6K
- 24h Vol
- $369.4K
POLYMARKETEthereum above ___ on September 10?
- 2,000+0.8pt100%
- 2,100+0.6pt100%
- 2,200+0.8pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin all time high by which date?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- BTC 15 min · $78,505.20 target
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- LAPTOP listed on ___ within 30 days of TGE?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- How high will BTC get in September?
- ETH price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Clarity Act become law??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2028 at 42% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will the Clarity Act become law? resolve?
- Will the Clarity Act become law? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the Clarity Act become law? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.