Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
One-OffCryptoRegulationCommoditiesStablecoinPolitics1mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore Sep 1, 2026 4%Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$34.2K
Liquidity
$1.5M
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 4.0%
Spread
33.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jul 13, 26, 4:00 PMSep 1, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Sep 1, 20264%
Large trades
$3.0k99.6%KALSHIBefore Aug 1, 2026 — No2d ago
KALSHIBefore Aug 1, 2026 — No2d ago$1.2k79.0%KALSHIBefore Oct 1, 2026 — No2d ago
KALSHIBefore Oct 1, 2026 — No2d ago$1.6k78.0%KALSHIBefore Oct 1, 2026 — No2d ago
KALSHIBefore Oct 1, 2026 — No2d ago$5.2k98.0%KALSHIBefore Aug 1, 2026 — No3d ago
KALSHIBefore Aug 1, 2026 — No3d ago$1.0k50.0%KALSHIBefore Nov 1, 2026 — Yes4d ago
KALSHIBefore Nov 1, 2026 — Yes4d ago$2.3k92.0%KALSHIBefore Sep 1, 2026 — No5d ago
KALSHIBefore Sep 1, 2026 — No5d ago$1.2k65.0%KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — No12d ago
KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — No12d ago$3.1k63.0%KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — No16d ago
KALSHIBefore Jan 1, 2027 — No16d agoVolume trend
$34.2kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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If a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following:
- Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.
- The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
- Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts); Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress; Bills that are vetoed and not overridden; State legislation of any kind
- Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion: