Will the Clarity Act become law?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffCryptoRegulationCommoditiesStablecoinPolitics2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2028 17%+1.0ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Before Jan 1, 2028 17%+1.0ptMarket quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.2K
Open interest
$4M
High open interestSpread
1.4 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Dec 4, 25, 1:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Before close: 1% ·
Before Aug 1, 2026Lost
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) become law by December 31 2026?
ForecastExClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
PolymarketWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
KalshiWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
PolymarketCLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Library of Congress
- For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following: Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications. The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts); Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress; Bills that are vetoed and not overridden; State legislation of any kind Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion: The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, if passed by both chambers and signed into law; The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), if passed by both chambers and signed into law; Any omnibus bill that includes comprehensive crypto market structure provisions as described above. Examples that would NOT meet the Payout Criterion: The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation); The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific); A bill that passes the House but not the Senate; An executive order directing agencies to study crypto regulation.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2027
- If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Sep 1, 2026
- If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Aug 1, 2026
- If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.