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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Crypto
  3. Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
Will crypto market structure legislation become law?

Will crypto market structure legislation become law?

1.0% (24h)One-OffCryptoRegulationCommoditiesStablecoinPolitics6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before 2027
Before 2027 47%+1.0%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$96.1

Liquidity

$8.8K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

43.0% / 47.0%

Spread

9.3%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Dec 4, 25, 1:00 AMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Before May
Before May
0%
Before June
Before June
0%

Selected outcome

Before 202747%

Rules

If a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following:
  • Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.
  • The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
  • Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts); Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress; Bills that are vetoed and not overridden; State legislation of any kind
  • Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion:

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,643.79+1.88%EthereumETH$1,653.31+1.52%SolanaSOL$65.18+1.10%XRPXRP$1.12-0.05%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.26%BNBBNB$596.07+1.49%

Related News

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Rules

If a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following:
  • Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.
  • The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
  • Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts); Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress; Bills that are vetoed and not overridden; State legislation of any kind
  • Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion: