KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%
Market quality
92 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$27.2K
Liquidity
$3.4M
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 3.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Oct 10, 25, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $200000 starting 2025-10-10 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:CF Benchmarks
- The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation.
- The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values.
- If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves.
- If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.