Current implied probability
No 96%
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$53.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.4% / 4.5%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
82
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jan 9, 26, 6:05 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
- If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.