Current implied probability
Before October 2026 4%-1.0%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4K
Liquidity
$3.2M
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.0% / 5.0%
Spread
25.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 28 minutes ago
Feb 17, 26, 9:00 PMOct 1, 26, 4:00 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before October 20264%
Compare venues· Before January 2027
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiThis pageBest overall | Medium | 14% | — | $4K | $3.2M | 28 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets90% match · verified | — | 52% | — | — | — | 23 hours ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
When Will Bitcoin cross $100,000 again?
5mo
51.7%
15%
4.8%
+6 more outcomes
Community forecast18 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 01/05/2026 03:00 PM and before June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation.
- The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values.
- If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves.
- If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No.
- The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$4.0kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 01/05/2026 03:00 PM and before June 1, 2026 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation.
- The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values.
- If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves.
- If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No.
- The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.