Regulation
841 related markets tracked across sources for Regulation.
Open Markets
221
Total Volume
$121,664,582
24h Volume
$225,515
Total Liquidity
$1,567,325,999
Related Crypto Assets
Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
1mo
+1.0%66%
-1.0%61%
+1.0%53%
+9 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$3M
24h Vol$35.3K
KALSHI
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
5.0%5mo
-0.1%63%
+0.1%38%
CoinRithm reference38%· ±3 pts
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.7M
24h Vol$93.4K
POLYMARKET
Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
3.0%11mo
+3.0%69%
-4.0%25%
-1.0%4%
CoinRithm referenceParamount67%· ±2 pts
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$4M
24h Vol$7.9K
KALSHI
Will marijuana be rescheduled?
1y
75%
66%
-1.0%22%
+1 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.4M
24h Vol$9.6K
KALSHI
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
2.0%1mo
83%
81%
+7.0%72%
+8 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1M
24h Vol$8.5K
KALSHI
Anthropic IPO by __?
11mo
69%
+19.5%64%
7%
+3 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$788.9K
24h Vol$18.7K
POLYMARKET
When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
3.0%9mo
+8.0%68%
+3.0%42%
+16.0%35%
+10 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$413.1K
24h Vol$7.1K
KALSHI
Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
10.0%5mo
+2.0%99%
99%
86%
+26 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.1M
24h Vol$2.3K
KALSHI
CXMT IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?
4.0%5mo
+0.1%99%
+0.5%95%
+4.0%89%
+3 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$86.4K
24h Vol$20.3K
POLYMARKET
Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?
17.0%13d
+17.0%58%
42%
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$82.1K
24h Vol$10.5K
KALSHI
When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
1.0%11mo
+1.0%7%
7%
5%
+10 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$461.9K
24h Vol$419.7
KALSHI
When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
5d
67%
56%
48%
+10 more outcomes
60 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.1M
24h Vol$149.5
KALSHI
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
0.7%5mo
-0.9%5%
-0.1%4%
-0.1%4%
+16 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$68.7K
24h Vol$685.7
POLYMARKET
Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?
5mo
97.9%
2.1%
Community forecast26 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
1y
86.8%
13.2%
Community forecast68 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
1y
34%
-0.5%17%
68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$12.1K
24h Vol$2.9K
POLYMARKET
How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
4.0%5mo
-2.0%33%
+6.0%20%
-4.0%18%
+1 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$15.1K
24h Vol$4.3K
KALSHI
Conference to Win the National Championship
1.0%7mo
+1.0%39%
39%
12%
+2 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$39.1K
24h Vol$447.8
KALSHI
Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027?
6.0%5mo
23%
18%
16%
+2 more outcomes
56 • Medium qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidity
Total Vol$123.2K
24h Vol$293
KALSHICLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?
5mo
61%
39%
Community forecast70 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
1.0%5mo
-0.0%91%
+0.0%10%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$52K
24h Vol$293.7
POLYMARKETCarried Interest Repeal by End of 2026
5mo
91%
9%
Community forecast19 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
4.0%5mo
45%
-4.0%44%
-13.0%31%
+5 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$13.9K
24h Vol$435.6
KALSHIWill messaging apps with end-to-end encryption (like Signal) be banned in a majority of G7 nations by the end of 2030?
4y
87%
13%
Community forecast55 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
When will the TSA update their security regulations to permit carrying liquid bottles over 300ml on commercial flights ?
2y
+0.4%12%
+0.4%8.4%
+0.4%7.9%
+15 more outcomes
Community forecast36 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?
5mo
69.6%
21.8%
6.9%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast23 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?
3y
78.6%
63.9%
55.8%
+9 more outcomes
Community forecast12 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill SBF receive a presidential pardon by end 2026?
5mo
97%
3%
Community forecast23 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?
5mo
96%
5%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$155.4K
24h Vol$104.2
POLYMARKET
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
11mo
+7.0%32%
-0.4%29%
27%
+5 more outcomes
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$4.9K
24h Vol$100
POLYMARKETIf Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?
3mo
72.4%
27.6%
Community forecast209 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
When will Skims officially announce an IPO?
2.0%2mo
36%
33%
30%
+16 more outcomes
56 • Medium qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$23.6K
24h Vol$278
KALSHI
When will Waymo officially announce an IPO?
4.0%4mo
23%
20%
19%
+16 more outcomes
48 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidity
Total Vol$31.2K
24h Vol$170
KALSHIWill Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?
5mo
94.1%
5.9%
Community forecast25 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?
1mo
97.2%
2.8%
Community forecast27 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSFTX US Recovery %
3y
97.9%
2.1%
Community forecast47 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
5mo
84.9%
15.1%
Community forecast24 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
5mo
92.2%
7.8%
Community forecast38 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS[ACX 2026] Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?
5mo
69.4%
30.6%
Community forecast26 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSTwitter / x.com blocked in the EU or Europe? Multimarket for dates
14y
55.7%
55.7%
50%
+23 more outcomes
Community forecast15 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSIf Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?
2y
95.8%
4.2%
Community forecast20 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
FISA Section 702 reauthorized by which date?
0.1%5d
-2.0%0%
-0.1%0%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$5.5K
24h Vol$265.4
POLYMARKETWill it become public that Monero has been compromised currently before 2030?
3y
94.2%
5.8%
Community forecast12 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill SBF be pardoned?
73y
90.1%
9.9%
Community forecast46 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSPharmaceutical TV ads banned in US by end of 2026?
5mo
94.4%
5.6%
Community forecast11 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the FAA Lift the Sonic Boom Ban by June 30, 2028?
1y
81.7%
18.3%
Community forecast16 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Washington state decriminalize ALL psychedelics by 2026?
5mo
92.4%
7.6%
Community forecast19 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSTestosterone unscheduled/rescheduled more permissively in US by end of 2028?
2y
82.2%
17.8%
Community forecast13 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS