Central Banks

Bank of Japan Decision in July?

0.8%4d

No change

+0.8%98%

25 bps increase

-0.8%2%

50+ bps decrease

+2 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$315.3K

24h Vol$15.4K

POLYMARKET

Bank of Japan rate decision in July

1.0%4d

Maintain current rate

+2.0%97%

Hike 25bps

-1.0%3%

Hike more than 25bps

+2 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$115.9K

24h Vol$10.9K

KALSHI

Bank of Brazil decision in August?

4.3%8d

25 bps decrease

-1.0%79%

No Change

-4.3%17%

50+ bps decrease

+2.1%3%

+2 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$162.4K

24h Vol$3.1K

POLYMARKET

Bank of England rate decision in July

Maintain current rate

+2.0%99%

Hike 1-25bps

+1.0%7%

Cut 1-25bps

+2 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$68.5K

24h Vol$4.2K

KALSHI

Bank of Canada Decision in September?

8.4%1mo

No Change

+8.4%91%

25 bps increase

-4.4%9%

50+ bps increase

+0.7%1%

+2 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$13.4K

24h Vol$4K

POLYMARKET

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?

1.0%2y

94%

Yes

+1.0%6%

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$126K

24h Vol$443.7

KALSHI

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

0.5%1mo

25 bps increase

-0.5%79%

No change

11%

50+ bps increase

+0.3%3%

+2 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$141K

24h Vol$358

POLYMARKET

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

19.5%3mo

3.0–3.4%

+19.5%43%

2.5–2.9%

-2.0%22%

2.0–2.4%

-13.0%14%

+5 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$2K

24h Vol$2K

POLYMARKET

Bank of England decision in September?

1.9%1mo

No change

-2.5%63%

25 bps increase

+1.9%37%

50+ bps decrease

+2 more outcomes

79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$64.5K

24h Vol$1K

POLYMARKET

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in August

8.0%10d

Cut 25bps

-8.0%79%

Maintain current rate

-2.0%17%

Cut more than 50bp

+4 more outcomes

79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$27K

24h Vol$1.2K

KALSHI

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August

2.5%15d

No change

+2.5%65%

25 bps increase

+1.9%35%

25 bps decrease

+2 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$33.8K

24h Vol$458.5

POLYMARKET

Reserve Bank of India decision in August

5.5%9d

No Change

-5.5%63%

Increase

24%

Decrease

+4.0%11%

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$6.7K

24h Vol$1.1K

POLYMARKET

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

4.0%1mo

No change

+4.0%76%

25 bps increase

-5.0%22%

50+ bps increase

-0.1%1%

+2 more outcomes

79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$84.1K

24h Vol$700

POLYMARKET

Ecusfed 26 OCT

3mo

H 0

58%

H 25

29%

C 25

+2 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.7K

24h Vol$1.7K

ROTHERA

US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?

9.0%4d

5%+

95%

6%+

+1.0%95%

7%+

+9.0%71%

+3 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$9.5K

24h Vol$937

POLYMARKET

Reserve Bank of India rate decision in August

6.0%9d

Maintain current rate

-6.0%63%

Hike 1-25bps

-2.0%17%

Cut 1-25bps

-1.0%6%

+2 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$7.4K

24h Vol$829

KALSHI

Ecusfed 27 JUL

H 0

73%

H 25

C 25

+2 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$673

24h Vol$673

ROTHERA

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

1.0%5mo

-0.0%64%

Yes

+0.0%36%

36 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$46.2K

24h Vol$577.7

POLYMARKET

Bank of England decision in July?

0.4%3d

No change

+0.4%99%

25 bps increase

-0.3%1%

50+ bps decrease

+2 more outcomes

71 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$79.9K

24h Vol$105

POLYMARKET

Will the Bank of Japan have a negative interest rate again before the end of 2026?

5mo

93.7%

Yes

6.3%

Community forecast18 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Interest rates above 10% before 2030?

82.1%

Yes

17.9%

Community forecast9 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which design proposal will the ECB select for the next series of euro banknotes?

H — Atelier Goppel-Toperngpong

+10.0%19.4%

I — Isabelle Daëron

+5.8%15.2%

E — Myrsini Vardopoulou

+1.5%11%

+8 more outcomes

Community forecast5 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

2.0%3mo

No change

+2.0%59%

25 bps increase

-11.0%12%

50+ bps decrease

-1.0%9%

+2 more outcomes

71 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$348.9

24h Vol$136.7

POLYMARKET

Bank of Canada decision in Sep 2026?

1.0%1mo

Maintains rate

+1.0%86%

Hike 25bps

10%

Cut 25bps

+2 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$2.5K

24h Vol$216

KALSHI

Will the European Union introduce a digital euro as a central bank digital currency (CBDC) before the end of 2026?

5mo

86.2%

Yes

13.8%

Community forecast26 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which central banks will hike before 2027?

5mo

European Central Bank

99%

Bank of Japan

99%

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

99%

+7 more outcomes

71 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$42.3K

24h Vol$67

KALSHI

Will rates hit zero in 2026?

5mo

98%

Yes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$53K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Lisa Cook departure announced?

1mo

Before Jan 2027

Before Sep 1, 2026

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$43.4K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Bank of Brazil decision in September?

0.1%1mo

No Change

-1.0%49%

25 bps decrease

-0.2%48%

25 bps increase

+0.1%5%

+2 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$27.3K

24h Vol$23.2

POLYMARKET

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

1.5%5mo

-0.0%79%

Yes

+0.0%22%

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$17.3K

24h Vol$39.5

POLYMARKET

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

5mo

3.1%+

-1.4%32%

2.8-3.0%

-0.5%31%

2.5–2.7%

-1.9%22%

+6 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$28.9K

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?

5mo

Exactly 4 cuts

50%

Exactly 5 cuts

36%

Exactly 3 cuts

+3 more outcomes

44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$25.6K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in August

15d

Maintain current rate

62%

Hike 1-25bps

33%

Cut 1-25bps

+2 more outcomes

44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$22.2K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Bank of Korea decision in August?

30d

No Change

+0.5%75%

25 bps hike

+0.5%26%

25 bps cut

+0.4%2%

+2 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$11.4K

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision in September

2.0%1mo

Hike 1-25bps

+2.0%94%

Hike more than 25bps

Maintain current rate

+2 more outcomes

60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$12.5K

24h Vol$1.1

KALSHI

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in September?

1mo

Increase

89%

No Change

-1.0%5%

Decrease

+0.1%3%

49 • Low qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$5.6K

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

0.9%3mo

No Change

82%

25 bps increase

+1.5%9%

50+ bps increase

-0.9%8%

+2 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$2.3K

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

ECB rate cut in 2026?

2.5%5mo

-0.0%88%

Yes

+0.0%13%

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$30.4K

24h Vol$25

POLYMARKET

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

0.5%5mo

74%

Yes

+0.0%27%

44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$17.3K

24h Vol$36

POLYMARKET

Who will be the next England Test Captain

10mo

Other

53.6%

Bethell

25.7%

Brook

12.5%

+1 more outcomes

Community forecast3 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026

17.0%4d

Above 1.0%

97%

Above 0.5%

93%

Above 2.0%

47%

+4 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$5.3K

24h Vol$9.1

KALSHI

When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States)

5mo

>2026

78.2%

2026

15.7%

2025

4.6%

+2 more outcomes

Community forecast21 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026?

5mo

Exactly 0ㅤ

93%

Exactly 1ㅤ

15%

Exactly 2ㅤ

+3 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$5.2K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?

3mo

Maintains rate

78%

Cut 25bps

Hike 25bps

+2 more outcomes

28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$6.4K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

76.5%

Yes

23.5%

Community forecast17 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Next target for the Bank of Japan’s interest rate (July)

Maintain the same rate

97%

Rise by 0.5% or more

Rise by 0.25%

+1 more outcomes

44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$585.9

24h Vol$0

FUTUUR

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

5mo

Exactly 2.25%

47%

Exactly 2.50%

35%

Exactly 3.25%

+5 more outcomes

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$1.6K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Number of Central Bank Digital Coins (CBDC) in the world at the end of 2026

5mo

3 or less

45%

4 or 5

33%

6 or 7

18%

+1 more outcomes

28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$11.7

24h Vol$0

FUTUUR

Related Crypto Assets

Bank of Japan Decision in July?

Bank of Japan rate decision in July

Bank of Brazil decision in August?

Bank of England rate decision in July

Bank of Canada Decision in September?

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

Bank of England decision in September?

Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in August

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August

Reserve Bank of India decision in August

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

Ecusfed 26 OCT

US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?

Reserve Bank of India rate decision in August

Ecusfed 27 JUL

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

Bank of England decision in July?

Will the Bank of Japan have a negative interest rate again before the end of 2026?

Interest rates above 10% before 2030?

Which design proposal will the ECB select for the next series of euro banknotes?

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

Bank of Canada decision in Sep 2026?

Will the European Union introduce a digital euro as a central bank digital currency (CBDC) before the end of 2026?

Which central banks will hike before 2027?

Will rates hit zero in 2026?

Lisa Cook departure announced?

Bank of Brazil decision in September?

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?

Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in August

Bank of Korea decision in August?

Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision in September

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in September?

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

ECB rate cut in 2026?

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Who will be the next England Test Captain

US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026

When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States)

Number of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026?

Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Next target for the Bank of Japan’s interest rate (July)

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

Number of Central Bank Digital Coins (CBDC) in the world at the end of 2026