KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 96%
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$141
Liquidity
$34K
High liquidityBid / Ask
4.2% / 6.9%
Spread
2.7 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Nov 21, 24, 3:00 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027?
KalshiWill the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?
KalshiWill the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Trump nominate a Federal Reserve governor?
KalshiRules
If a bill has become law which has abolished or dissolved the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and its constituent reserve banks before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The bill need not take effect before January 20, 2029 to be included in the Payout Criterion.
Open markets
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+12.0pt65.3%
- No change-13.0pt33.7%
- 50+ bps increase-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $113.7M
- 24h Vol
- $5.6M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+9.0pt63.1%
- Fed maintains rate-9.0pt34%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $44.5M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt59.1%
- Fed maintains rate35.4%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $446.4K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.1pt92.1%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5.9%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.2pt1%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt88%
- Before July 2027+3.0pt86%
- Before 2027-2.0pt72%
- Total Vol
- $4.1M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-2.0pt64.1%
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt33%
- 25 bps decrease-0.9pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Fed decision in September?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump end the Federal Reserve??
- Kalshi prices No at 96% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? resolve?
- Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? is scheduled to resolve on January 20, 2029.
- How is Will Trump end the Federal Reserve? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a bill has become law which has abolished or dissolved the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and its constituent reserve banks before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.