PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
0 (0 bps) 93%+0.2ptLeader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
≤89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$52K
Liquidity
$4.2M
High liquiditySpread
0.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
119
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 29, 25, 10:24 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNumber of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
FutuurNumber of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
KalshiNumber of emergency rate cuts in 2026?
KalshiNumber of Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026?
KalshiWill there be exactly 3 rate cuts in 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
- Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026.
- This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
- For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
- This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
- Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? · 0 (0 bps) 93%
- Also available on Kalshi — Number of rate cuts in 2026? · Exactly 0 cuts 91%
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.1%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.1M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt50%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt44.6%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt85%
- Before July 2027+5.0pt84%
- Before 2027+2.0pt75%
- Total Vol
- $3.9M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No87%
- Yes+3.8pt13%
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $47.9K
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt30.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many Fed rate cuts in 2026??
- Polymarket prices 0 (0 bps) at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? resolve?
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
- Where else is How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Kalshi.