PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability0 (0 85%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$181K
Liquidity
$2.5M
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.5% / 0.7%
Spread
40.0%
Wide spread7d Change
+0.3%
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 29, 25, 10:24 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
0 (085%
Compare venues· 0 (0
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
5mo
+1.8%80.4%
-1.3%10.2%
-0.2%3%
+6 more outcomes
Community forecast15 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Kalshi
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
5mo
+1.7%82%
-2.9%13%
-1.0%3%
+18 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$6.3M
24h Vol$34.1K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026?
5mo
54.4%
35.3%
6.8%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast24 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
- Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026.
- This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
- For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
- This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
- Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.8k99.3%POLYMARKETWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Noaaronhill46m ago
POLYMARKETWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Noaaronhill46m ago$1.7k20.0%KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — Noyesterday
KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — Noyesterday$3.4k15.0%POLYMARKETWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — NoyameteV92d ago
POLYMARKETWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — NoyameteV92d ago$2.8k79.0%KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — Yes4d ago
KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — Yes4d ago$1.4k99.6%POLYMARKETWill 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — NoArtistic-Raid7d ago
POLYMARKETWill 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — NoArtistic-Raid7d ago$1.9k24.2%KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — No11d ago
KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — No11d ago$1.1k24.2%KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — No11d ago
KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — No11d ago$11.2k77.8%POLYMARKETWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yespada11d ago
POLYMARKETWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Yespada11d agoVolume trend
$181.0kJul 220d of dataJul 21
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This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
- Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026.
- This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
- For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
- This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
- Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.