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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Fed
  3. Fed rate cut by...?
Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

0.1% (24h)FedOne-Off5d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December Meeting
December Meeting 24%+0.5%
Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality

73 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$10.7K

Liquidity

$210.6K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

0.5% / 0.9%

Spread

80.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

-0.7%

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Dec 16, 25, 7:36 PMJun 17, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
January Meeting
January Meeting
0%

Selected outcome

December Meeting24%

LimitlessAlso available on Limitless

Fed rate cut by __?

Fed rate cut by __?

5d
June Meeting
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
July Meeting
4.6%
September Meeting
September Meeting
11.3%

+2 more outcomes

28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$706
24h Vol$0
LimitlessLIMITLESS

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,088.95+1.39%EthereumETH$1,636.01+0.87%SolanaSOL$64.49+0.38%

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Active in these topics

DogecoinDOGE$0.0839+0.22%BNBBNB$591.58+0.85%XRPXRP$1.11-0.83%CardanoADA$0.1625+0.38%HyperliquidHYPE$54.11-3.09%LitecoinLTC$42.19-0.56%

Related News

Bitcoin traders brace for Federal Reserve decision as hold odds hit 98%Crypto NewsWall Street abandons rate-cut hopes ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMCCrypto NewsStrategy's bitcoin purchase fails to stir BTC priceCoindeskBitcoin braces for inflation shock as CPI puts bulls on edgeCrypto NewsThe Fed, Iran, and Saylor: anatomy of the June crypto crashCrypto NewsMay 2026 US Jobs Report: Upward Revisions Reshape Crypto Fed Rate Cut OutlookBlockchain Reporter

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
  • Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
  • The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.