PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December Meeting 13%-2.0ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$16.6K
Liquidity
$269.2K
High liquiditySpread
0.5 pt
Tight spreadComments
28
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Dec 16, 25, 7:36 PMJan 8, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If no the named outcome takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
- Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change-3.0pt67.3%
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt31.7%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.3M
- 24h Vol
- $4.2M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt65.3%
- Hike 25bps+4.0pt31.7%
- Cut 25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.1M
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.4pt83.5%
- Exactly 1 cut-0.7pt9.7%
- Exactly 2 cuts+0.4pt2.9%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+7.0pt56%
- No-7.0pt44%
- Total Vol
- $7.9M
- 24h Vol
- $171.6K
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Fed maintains rate+1.0pt65.6%
- Hike 25bps28.8%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2.4%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $162K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0-0.7pt85.9%
- 1 (2510.1%
- 2 (50-0.6pt3%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed Decision in October?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Will credit card rates be capped in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed rate cut by which date??
- Polymarket prices December Meeting at 13% as of August 22, 2026.
- When does Fed rate cut by which date? resolve?
- Fed rate cut by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2027.
- How is Fed rate cut by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28.