KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: Fed maintains rate (99%)
Resolved: Jun 17, 2026, 6:07 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Fed maintains rate
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
99%
ConsensusCurrent implied probabilityCut 25bps 1%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
77 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5M
Liquidity
$290.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 24 days ago
StaleSep 29, 25, 2:00 PMJun 17, 26, 5:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Hike >25bps1%
Fed maintains rate98%
Cut >25bps1%
Hike 25bps1%
1%
99%
1%
1%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· Fed maintains rate
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Limitless
Fed Decision in June?
Closed
2.5%
5.6%
74.5%
+2 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$42.7K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESS
Also available on Polymarket
Fed Decision in June?
0.4%Closed
Resolved
No change (100%)
+0.4%100%
-0.2%0%
-0.1%0%
+2 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityTight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$164.6M
24h Vol$13.8M
POLYMARKETRules
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No.
- Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
$215.5KHike >25bps: 1%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
$4.2KCut 25bps: 9%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
$1.2KCut >25bps: 1%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Apr 2027?
$121Fed maintains rate: 54%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2027?
$47.6Hike 25bps: 56%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Dec 2027?
$27Fed maintains rate: 21%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds for 0 Fed cuts in 2026 slip to 78% after Warsh task forcesBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 85.5% after minutes spark repricingBlockchain.News
Fed flags AI inflation risk as rate hike odds climb above 59%Crypto NewsSupreme Court Cook ruling lifts Polymarket July Fed hold odds to 80.5%Blockchain.News
Analysts turn bullish on Applied A & D as Polymarket sees 78% odds of no Fed cutsBlockchain.News
Trump targets Fed Gov Cook as Polymarket puts Starmer exit odds at 91.5%Blockchain.NewsRules
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No.
- Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on June 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.