KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityHike 25bps 6%-1.0%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$595.4K
Liquidity
$19.2M
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
20.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Sep 29, 25, 2:00 PMJul 29, 26, 5:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Hike 25bps6%
Compare venues· No change
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
Fed Decision in July?
7d
93%
+0.5%7%
0%
+2 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$76.9M
24h Vol$3M
POLYMARKET
Also available on Limitless
Fed Decision in July?
8d
92.7%
7%
1.3%
+2 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$6K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSRules
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No.
- Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.3k6.9%POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — NoRRRRRRRRL7m ago
POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — NoRRRRRRRRL7m ago$1.5k7.0%KALSHIFed maintains rate — No9m ago
KALSHIFed maintains rate — No9m ago$5.0k99.6%POLYMARKETWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — NoQMG-VOL2h ago
POLYMARKETWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — NoQMG-VOL2h ago$1.4k94.0%KALSHIHike 25bps — No14h ago
KALSHIHike 25bps — No14h ago$19.8k93.7%POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — NoJAHODAyesterday
POLYMARKETWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — NoJAHODAyesterday$2.8k93.5%POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yesalwayslatetothepartyyesterday
POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yesalwayslatetothepartyyesterday$2.8k93.4%POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yesalwayslatetothepartyyesterday
POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yesalwayslatetothepartyyesterday$10.2k93.6%POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes50000x2d ago
POLYMARKETWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes50000x2d agoVolume trend
$595.4kJul 220d of dataJul 21
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Fed decision in Sep 2026?
$13.2KCut >25bps: 1%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
$972Cut >25bps: 3%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Jul 2027?
$374.3Hike >25bps: 1%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Dec 2027?
$338.5Cut >25bps: 11%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2027?
$191.3Cut 25bps: 21%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2027?
$150.6Fed maintains rate: 39%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds put July Fed no-change at 96% as $65M tradesBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices 2026 Fed at 82% no cuts as yuan note fails to shift oddsBlockchain.News
Polymarket: September Fed hold odds slip to 64% after Warsh hearingsBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds: Fed July hold jumps to 95% after Bitcoin breaks $65KBlockchain.News
Bitcoin climbs above $65K as weak PPI rattles Fed hawksCrypto NewsPolymarket odds tilt to Sept Fed hold at 61.5% after Warsh testimonyBlockchain.NewsRules
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No.
- Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.