KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityCut >25bps 11%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$338.5
Liquidity
$4.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
11.0% / 12.0%
Spread
9.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Oct 6, 25, 2:00 PMDec 8, 27, 6:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Cut >25bps11%
Large trades
$24.4k72.0%KALSHIHike >25bps — Yes15d ago
KALSHIHike >25bps — Yes15d agoVolume trend
$338Jul 215d of dataJul 21
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
$2MHike 25bps: 12%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
$9KHike 25bps: 47%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
$661Cut 25bps: 7%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Jul 2027?
$374.3Hike >25bps: 1%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Dec 2026?
$232.7Hike >25bps: 8%KALSHI
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2027?
$150.6Fed maintains rate: 39%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds put July Fed no-change at 96% as $65M tradesBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices 2026 Fed at 82% no cuts as yuan note fails to shift oddsBlockchain.News
Polymarket: September Fed hold odds slip to 64% after Warsh hearingsBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds: Fed July hold jumps to 95% after Bitcoin breaks $65KBlockchain.News
Bitcoin climbs above $65K as weak PPI rattles Fed hawksCrypto NewsPolymarket odds tilt to Sept Fed hold at 61.5% after Warsh testimonyBlockchain.NewsRules
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No.
- Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.