KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Fed maintains rate 47.1%-1.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$4.8K
Liquidity
$113.3K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Sep 29, 25, 2:00 PM UTCDec 9, 26, 6:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "the named outcome" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $103.9M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt52%
- Fed maintains rate-3.0pt45.1%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $38.7M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt48.3%
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt45.4%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)-0.1pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)+0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.3pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt30.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No88%
- Yes+1.2pt12%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $38.6K
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed decision in Dec 2026??
- Kalshi prices Fed maintains rate at 47% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Fed decision in Dec 2026? resolve?
- Fed decision in Dec 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 9, 2026.
- How is Fed decision in Dec 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Fed decision in Dec 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Robinhood (Rothera).