PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Below 4.50% 84%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$685.5
Liquidity
$7.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:06 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
PolymarketHow high will the 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Futuur10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
Kalshi10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026.
- If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Below 4.50% is 84%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference Below 4.50% 84% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
