PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Below 4.70% · —
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Stored reference
Below 4.70% 72%Leader of 13 outcomes
Below 4.70% 72%Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$29.2K
Liquidity
$67.7K
High liquidityOpen interest
$55.8K
Bid / Ask
— / —
Below 4.70%Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
+7.2 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:06 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · Below 4.70%
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
PolymarketHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
Polymarket10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
KalshiHow low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026.
- If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
