KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityExactly 4 cuts 1%+0.1%Leader of 21 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$35K
Liquidity
$4.4M
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.7% / 0.9%
Spread
28.6%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Sep 29, 25, 2:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Exactly 4 cuts1%
Compare venues· Exactly 0 cuts
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · verified | Medium | 85% | — | $53.9K | $2.6M | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Medium | 83% | — | $35K | $4.4M | 29 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets80% match · verified | — | 53% | — | — | — | yesterday | Open → |
| Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 83% | — | — | — | 2 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
5mo
+1.4%82.8%
-0.9%8.1%
-0.2%2.8%
+6 more outcomes
Community forecast16 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
5mo
85%
9%
3%
+10 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$44.8M
24h Vol$53.9K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026?
5mo
53.3%
34.4%
8.5%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast25 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).
- If the Fed cuts 1 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Fed cuts 2 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Fed cuts 3 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Fed cuts 4 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.4k83.0%KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — Yes3d ago
KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — Yes3d ago$1.1k84.6%POLYMARKETWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — YesOptimistic-Functionality3d ago
POLYMARKETWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — YesOptimistic-Functionality3d ago$1.3k84.8%POLYMARKETWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — YesOptimistic-Functionality4d ago
POLYMARKETWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — YesOptimistic-Functionality4d ago$2.9k99.6%POLYMARKETWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Nokristina384d ago
POLYMARKETWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Nokristina384d ago$2.8k99.3%POLYMARKETWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Noaaronhill5d ago
POLYMARKETWill 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — Noaaronhill5d ago$1.7k20.0%KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — No6d ago
KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — No6d ago$3.4k15.0%POLYMARKETWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — NoyameteV98d ago
POLYMARKETWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? — NoyameteV98d ago$2.8k79.0%KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — Yes10d ago
KALSHIExactly 0 cuts — Yes10d agoVolume trend
$35.0kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).
- If the Fed cuts 1 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Fed cuts 2 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Fed cuts 3 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the Fed cuts 4 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.