PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No change 87.3%+3.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
No change 87.3%+3.0ptMarket quality
76 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$994.8
Liquidity
$98.7K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+18.5 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jul 31, 26, 11:42 PM UTCOct 30, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Bank of Japan Decision in December?
PolymarketBank of Japan rate decision in December
KalshiWill the Bank of Japan have a negative interest rate again before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Bank of Japan leave the rate unchanged at the October 30, 2026 meeting?
ForecastExFed Decision in October?
PolymarketFed rate decision in October 2026
Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
- If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for No change is 89%. The venue spread is about 4 percentage points. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference No change 89% · 2 venues · 4 pt venue spread
- Also available on Kalshi — Bank of Japan rate decision in October · Maintain current rate 86%
- Also available on Limitless — Bank of Japan Decision in October? · No change 89%
- Also available on Futuur — Bank of Japan interest rate decision — October 2026 · No change 83%