KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityAbove 3.00% 97%+3.0%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$49.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
97.0% / 98.0%
Spread
1.0%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Aug 6, 25, 2:30 PMDec 9, 26, 6:55 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 3.00%97%
Volume trend
$1.3kJul 324d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.00% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.