KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Exactly 5 cuts 38.6%+4.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$41.7K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jun 2, 26, 11:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the total number of Central Bank of Brazil rate cuts for 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- The Underlying is the number of discrete decreases in the Brazil interest rate value during calendar year 2026.
- Each separate decrease counts as one rate cut, regardless of the size of the decrease.
- For example, a decrease from 14.75% to 14.50% counts as one rate cut, and a decrease from 14.50% to 14.25% would count as another rate cut.
- Rate cuts before market issuance count, provided they occurred during calendar year 2026.
- As of issuance, Brazil has already had 2 qualifying 2026 rate cuts: the Selic target was reduced to 14.75% in March 2026 and to 14.50% in April 2026.
Open markets
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+12.0pt65.3%
- No change-13.0pt33.7%
- 50+ bps increase-0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $113.7M
- 24h Vol
- $5.6M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+9.0pt63.1%
- Fed maintains rate-9.0pt34%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $44.5M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt59.1%
- Fed maintains rate35.4%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $446.4K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.1pt92.1%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5.9%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.2pt1%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt88%
- Before July 2027+3.0pt86%
- Before 2027-2.0pt72%
- Total Vol
- $4.1M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-2.0pt64.1%
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt33%
- 25 bps decrease-0.9pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Fed decision in September?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Exactly 5 cuts at 39% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026? resolve?
- Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the total number of Central Bank of Brazil rate cuts for 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.