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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Fed
  3. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Manifold Markets

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

FedOne-OffInflationAI6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
0 (0 bps) 82.3%
Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters

10

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale
Dec 11, 25, 8:46 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

0 (0 bps)82%

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

1.0%6mo
0 (0
0 (0
-1.0%80%
1 (25
1 (25
-1.0%13%
2 (50
2 (50
+0.4%3%

+10 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$39M
24h Vol$200.3K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Rules

This market resolves to the exact number of 25-basis-point rate cuts made by the Federal Reserve in 2026, including any cuts at the December FOMC meeting.

Manifold Markets
  • Emergency cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings also count.
  • The market remains open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to capture such actions.
  • Rate cuts are counted as follows:
  • Each 25 bps of total reduction = 1 cut
  • Cuts of 1–24 bps = 1 cut

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$59,807.09-2.88%EthereumETH$1,553.17-5.64%SolanaSOL$68.21-1.20%

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Related News

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Rules

This market resolves to the exact number of 25-basis-point rate cuts made by the Federal Reserve in 2026, including any cuts at the December FOMC meeting.

Manifold Markets
  • Emergency cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings also count.
  • The market remains open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to capture such actions.
  • Rate cuts are counted as follows:
  • Each 25 bps of total reduction = 1 cut
  • Cuts of 1–24 bps = 1 cut