Current community forecast
0 (0 bps) 91.6%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 11, 25, 8:46 AMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market resolves to the exact number of 25-basis-point rate cuts made by the Federal Reserve in 2026, including any cuts at the December FOMC meeting.
- Emergency cuts outside scheduled FOMC meetings also count.
- The market remains open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to capture such actions.
- Rate cuts are counted as follows:
- Each 25 bps of total reduction = 1 cut
- Cuts of 1–24 bps = 1 cut
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026? · 0 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75) 34%
- Also available on Polymarket — How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? · 0 (0 bps) 87%
- Also available on Kalshi — Number of rate cuts in 2026? · Exactly 0 cuts 87%
Open markets
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change68%
- 25 bps increase-2.0pt31%
- 25 bps decrease-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $54.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Fed maintains rate+2.0pt67%
- Hike 25bps-2.0pt29.1%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+1.1pt86.3%
- 1 (25 bps)9.8%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt2.9%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+9.9pt57.8%
- SpaceX+2.0pt41.2%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change70.6%
- 25 bps increase23.5%
- 25 bps decrease-0.3pt3.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Fed maintains rate67.1%
- Hike 25bps26.8%
- Cut 25bps2.4%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $108.5K
- 24h Vol
- $52.9K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many Fed rate cuts in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices 0 (0 bps) at 92% as of August 27, 2026.
- When does How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? resolve?
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves to the exact number of 25-basis-point rate cuts made by the Federal Reserve in 2026, including any cuts at the December FOMC meeting.
- Where else is How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Polymarket, Kalshi.