AI
4241 related markets tracked across sources for AI.
Open Markets
1,319
Total Volume
$343,040,752
24h Volume
$728,802
Total Liquidity
$1,925,775,556
Related Crypto Assets
Which company has best AI model end of July?
0.1%4d
+0.2%99%
-0.1%0%
0%
+23 more outcomes
77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$7.9M
24h Vol$295.4K
POLYMARKET
Best AI at the end of 2026?
1.5%5mo
-1.5%64%
+1.0%14%
+0.1%11%
+5 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.6M
24h Vol$20K
KALSHI
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
5mo
86%
26%
14%
+71 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$4.9M
24h Vol$10.2K
POLYMARKET
When will Anthropic release Mythos?
2.0%4mo
+2.0%17%
-1.0%17%
10%
+5 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.9M
24h Vol$12.1K
KALSHI
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
2.0%5mo
+3.6%100%
+2.4%100%
+0.5%85%
+10 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.6M
24h Vol$5.4K
POLYMARKET
Time's Person of the Year for 2026
2.0%5mo
+2.0%28%
-1.0%18%
17%
+22 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceZohran Mamdani28%· ±4 pts
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$662.8K
24h Vol$21.9K
KALSHI
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
2.0%1mo
83%
81%
+7.0%72%
+8 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1M
24h Vol$8.5K
KALSHI
Best Chinese AI Company end of July?
9.1%4d
-9.1%76%
+12.2%23%
-0.2%1%
+22 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$700K
24h Vol$39.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
11mo
+1.0%70%
+19.5%64%
7%
+3 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$789K
24h Vol$18.8K
POLYMARKETBest AI this week
1.0%1d
99%
+1.0%2%
-1.0%1%
+5 more outcomes
77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$201.6K
24h Vol$25.4K
KALSHIWhich company has the third best AI model end of July?
5.8%4d
+5.8%99%
-0.7%0%
-0.4%0%
+23 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$126.6K
24h Vol$17.8K
POLYMARKET
Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
10.0%5mo
+2.0%99%
99%
86%
+26 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.1M
24h Vol$2.3K
KALSHI
Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
5mo
58%
29%
7%
+6 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$954.3K
24h Vol$2.1K
KALSHI
Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
5mo
+15.0%89%
+9.0%85%
+11.0%74%
+18 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceGlobalFoundries71%· ±7 pts
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1M
24h Vol$2.8K
KALSHIWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
0.5%5mo
+0.5%63%
11%
9%
+23 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceAnthropic63%· ±4 pts
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$395.4K
24h Vol$4.5K
POLYMARKET
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
17.0%5d
-0.5%85%
-17.0%31%
-0.3%3%
+13 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$324.1K
24h Vol$21.9K
POLYMARKET
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
0.3%5mo
73%
+4.5%63%
-1.5%50%
+12 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$930.1K
24h Vol$2.2K
POLYMARKET
When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
0.8%5mo
+0.6%40%
+0.7%23%
+0.8%7%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$595.7K
24h Vol$2.4K
KALSHI
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
74y
+1.8%88.4%
83.6%
83.4%
+49 more outcomes
Community forecast160 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Top AI model this week
2.0%1d
+2.0%96%
-1.0%1%
-1.0%1%
+1 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$107.9K
24h Vol$35.8K
KALSHIBest AI in Jul 2026?
5d
98%
1%
1%
+4 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$439.9K
24h Vol$1.7K
KALSHI
Top Coding AI this month
2.0%5d
+2.0%95%
-13.0%1%
1%
+5 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$176.4K
24h Vol$7.1K
KALSHI
Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut?
8.5%5mo
-8.5%86%
-16.5%72%
-11.5%52%
+3 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$65.9K
24h Vol$23.5K
POLYMARKET
Best Chinese AI Company this week
2.0%1d
95%
+2.0%6%
1%
+6 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$65K
24h Vol$8.5K
KALSHIBest AI model on August 1?
12.5%6d
+12.5%82%
-10.7%19%
-0.3%0%
+1 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$33.8K
24h Vol$17.9K
POLYMARKET
EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?
4y
+0.1%39.5%
+0.1%28.9%
+0.1%22.8%
+1 more outcomes
Community forecast48 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?
0.5%4d
+1.3%96%
+0.5%1%
+0.5%1%
+23 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$371.7K
24h Vol$3.1K
POLYMARKET
What will happen to Hugging Face?
2y
+42.4%55.4%
-20.5%28.8%
-15.6%11.6%
+1 more outcomes
Community forecast79 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
2.0%13y
-4.0%81%
+2.0%18%
CoinRithm referenceAnthropic81%· ±8 pts
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$317.9K
24h Vol$2.9K
KALSHI
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
0.8%5mo
+32.5%48%
+3.0%34%
-1.5%16%
+7 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceClip-on device for clothing24%· ±12 pts
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$389.6K
24h Vol$2.5K
POLYMARKETTop AI model in July?
5d
82%
2%
1%
+7 more outcomes
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$126.6K
24h Vol$3.8K
KALSHI
When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
6.0%1mo
-3.0%87%
-1.0%80%
-2.0%63%
+4 more outcomes
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$208.5K
24h Vol$1.7K
KALSHIWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
18.0%2mo
-18.0%48%
+4.0%17%
-1.5%11%
+2 more outcomes
77 • High qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$121.9K
24h Vol$8.5K
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
30.0%5mo
+3.6%100%
+9.1%94%
+30.0%71%
+1 more outcomes
88 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$87.2K
24h Vol$11.7K
POLYMARKET
Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)
0.4%4d
+0.4%98%
-0.8%1%
1%
+23 more outcomes
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$126.5K
24h Vol$1K
POLYMARKET
When will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro?
1.0%4d
-3.0%84%
-3.0%61%
+1.0%5%
+5 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$85.2K
24h Vol$2.4K
KALSHI
Sam Altman replaced as OpenAI CEO this year?
4.0%5mo
81%
-4.0%19%
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$101.9K
24h Vol$1.4K
KALSHI
GPU rental prices (H100) end of July?
10.5%5d
+1.0%71%
+10.5%21%
-13.5%8%
+4 more outcomes
61 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$58.8K
24h Vol$7.6K
POLYMARKETWhich company has second best AI model end of July?
4d
+0.3%98%
-0.3%1%
-0.6%1%
+23 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$78.5K
24h Vol$1.1K
POLYMARKETNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
28.0%
-0.2%87%
+0.3%65%
+28.0%59%
+2 more outcomes
61 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$48.6K
24h Vol$7.5K
POLYMARKETWhat will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?
5mo
28.7%
18%
17.1%
+6 more outcomes
Community forecast27 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSBest AI model on August 10?
28.0%15d
+28.0%77%
-15.0%23%
-34.8%2%
+1 more outcomes
88 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$10.1K
24h Vol$10.1K
POLYMARKETWill AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
3y
95%
5%
Community forecast342 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSHighest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
14.6%5mo
+14.6%87%
+28.5%45%
+9.5%22%
+2 more outcomes
88 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$8.8K
24h Vol$6.8K
POLYMARKETBy the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
6mo
90.3%
9.7%
Community forecast834 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSHighest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
2.0%5mo
+0.5%72%
-2.0%39%
-7.5%19%
+2 more outcomes
88 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$9.6K
24h Vol$6K
POLYMARKET
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
33.0%5mo
-33.0%36%
-1.0%35%
29%
79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$141.8K
24h Vol$5K
POLYMARKETNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
0.1%5d
+0.1%97%
2%
+0.3%1%
+29 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$371.1K
24h Vol$697.5
POLYMARKET