AI | Prediction Markets

Which company has best AI model end of June?

20d

Anthropic

+4.1%91%

Google

-3.0%7%

OpenAI

-1.1%3%

+16 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$12.7M

24h Vol$694.4K

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO by...?

0.1%6mo

December

-0.5%70%

September 30,

-6.5%30%

August

+0.5%7%

+3 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.9M

24h Vol$60.1K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

6mo

↑$1.0T

+2.4%100%

↑$1.1T

+0.7%95%

↑$1.25T

88%

+10 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.3M

24h Vol$18.6K

POLYMARKET

Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

0.3%20d

Anthropic

+1.0%88%

Google

+0.5%9%

OpenAI

+0.2%3%

+16 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$1.6M

24h Vol$12.7K

POLYMARKET

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

0.3%20d

Anthropic

+22.0%90%

Google

-16.0%8%

OpenAI

-3.4%4%

+16 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$573.2K

24h Vol$28.4K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by __?

33.0%1y

December 31,

90%

October 31,

+1.5%82%

September 30,

-33.0%10%

+3 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$198.5K

24h Vol$53.1K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

29.5%20d

Anthropic

+29.5%44%

Google

-32.0%34%

OpenAI

-3.0%16%

+26 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$172.2K

24h Vol$60.4K

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of July?

0.3%1mo

Anthropic

+7.0%88%

Google

-3.1%6%

OpenAI

-3.8%4%

+23 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$46.2K

24h Vol$29.6K

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

3.5%6mo

1.5T+

-13.9%32%

No IPO by December 31, 2026

-3.5%26%

750B–1T

+19.4%23%

+4 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.8M

24h Vol$15.6K

POLYMARKET

GPT-5.6 released by...?

9.5%1mo

July 31

+0.8%98%

June 30

+2.5%93%

June 15

+9.5%25%

+5 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$754.5K

24h Vol$78.2K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

20d

No IPO by June 30, 2026

-0.1%100%

600B+

+0.1%1%

<100B

+4 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.6M

24h Vol$4.4K

POLYMARKET

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

1.5%20d

Anthropic

+77.0%100%

OpenAI

-1.5%7%

xAI

+0.1%2%

+8 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.6M

24h Vol$6.1K

POLYMARKET

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

4.5%6mo

↑$900B

-4.5%87%

↑$1.0T

80%

↓$800B

-1.5%70%

+12 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$600.5K

24h Vol$8.2K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?

7.0%21d

↑ $925B

+9.9%100%

↑ $1.0T

+12.6%100%

↑ $975B

+1.3%100%

+9 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$366.7K

24h Vol$6.6K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

0.5%1y

600B+

+0.5%94%

No IPO by December 31, 2027

-0.5%3%

100–200B

+4 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$350.6K

24h Vol$2.8K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

21.5%20d

Anthropic

+21.5%80%

Google

-19.0%13%

OpenAI

-2.5%4%

+26 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$85K

24h Vol$12.5K

POLYMARKET

Claude Mythos: Coding Arena Debut?

1520+

94%

1530+

82%

1540+

74%

+1 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$45.8K

24h Vol$45.8K

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

2.9%20d

No release by June 30

20%

June 23

-0.5%18%

June 30

+3.0%17%

+27 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$95.5K

24h Vol$4.8K

POLYMARKET

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

8.5%18d

June 15–June 21

+9.0%62%

June 22–June 28

-0.8%17%

June 8–June 14

-8.5%13%

+5 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$87.7K

24h Vol$5.8K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best Coding AI model end of June?

0.9%20d

Anthropic

-1.0%93%

OpenAI

+0.9%6%

Z.ai

+0.1%1%

+26 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$46.5K

24h Vol$5.4K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

18.5%20d

Anthropic

+18.5%79%

Google

-10.5%19%

Best Chinese AI Company end of June?

1.5%20d

Alibaba

+1.5%85%

Z.ai

+3.0%14%

Xiaomi

+22 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$31.2K

24h Vol$9.4K

POLYMARKET

Claude Mythos released on…?

20d

On or prior to June 9

100%

June 13

June 18

+20 more outcomes

88 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$142K

24h Vol$142K

POLYMARKET

Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?

6mo

Yes

94%

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$28.6K

24h Vol$6.6K

POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

0.9%6mo

Yes

+0.0%3%

-0.0%97%

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$991.4K

24h Vol$1.2K

POLYMARKET

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

6.8%20d

30%+

+0.7%100%

35%+

+2.6%100%

45%+

+14.0%57%

+2 more outcomes

61 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$310.7K

24h Vol$14.2K

POLYMARKET

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by June 30?

1.0%21d

↑$850B

-18.0%47%

↓$800B

-5.1%34%

↑$875B

-12.5%20%

+9 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$191.4K

24h Vol$4.5K

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

6.0%6mo

Anthropic

+6.0%65%

Google

+0.5%17%

OpenAI

-3.5%12%

+23 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$4.8K

24h Vol$3.3K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

12.0%1y

Anthropic

-0.1%71%

OpenAI

+0.1%30%

88 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$133.2K

24h Vol$18.7K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

0.5%1y

1.8T+

+0.5%48%

1.2–1.5T

19%

1.5–1.8T

-1.1%18%

+4 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$141.1K

24h Vol$3.3K

POLYMARKET

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

0.1%20d

Yes

99%

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$288.9K

24h Vol$1.6K

POLYMARKET

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

22d

Perplexity

5.9%

Anthropic

1.3%

Mistral

5.1%

+3 more outcomes

Community forecast47 forecastersType: multiple choice

Total Vol$129.3K

24h Vol$3K

MANIFOLD MARKETS

AI bubble burst by...?

4.5%6mo

2026

+4.5%27%

2025

+0.1%0%

March 31, 2026

-0.1%0%

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$2.9M

24h Vol$1.8K

POLYMARKET

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

16.5%6mo

Google

-16.5%49%

OpenAI

+3.0%36%

Best AI model on June 13?

40.9%3d

Other

+44.0%57%

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

-40.9%45%

claude-opus-4-6

+0.1%0%

+3 more outcomes

77 • High qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$12.4K

24h Vol$7.2K

POLYMARKET

Outcomes of the Anthropic vs. US government feud?

22d

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

100%

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

100%

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

6.7%

+23 more outcomes

Community forecast592 forecastersType: multiple choice

Total Vol$363.8K

24h Vol$516

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Claude 5 (Anthropic) release date

20d

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

+17 more outcomes

Community forecast336 forecastersType: multiple choice

Total Vol$474.1K

24h Vol$5K

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

11.5%1mo

July 31

96%

June 30

80%

June 26

+1.0%69%

+3 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$37.8K

24h Vol$2.5K

POLYMARKET

Best AI at the end of 2026?

5.9%6mo

Claude

+5.9%73%

Gemini

+1.2%15%

ChatGPT

-1.5%11%

+4 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$52.4K

24h Vol$659.1

KALSHI

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

6mo

<155

1.5%

155-160

1.6%

160-165

4.8%

+5 more outcomes

Community forecast35 forecastersType: multiple choice

Total Vol$31.5K

24h Vol$2.2K

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

$ANTH

+14.0%54%

$CLDE

+0.9%24%

$ANAI

-10.8%6%

+17 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$35.1K

24h Vol$854

POLYMARKET

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Yes

90.1%

9.9%

Community forecast2,681 forecastersType: binary

Total Vol$2.4M

24h Vol$665.8

MANIFOLD MARKETS

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

2.0%1y

$800B

+2.0%85%

$1T

+0.5%82%

$1.2T

+4.0%67%

+2 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$1.5M

24h Vol$348.2

POLYMARKET

Claude Mythos (Anthropic) release date

7mo

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

Before July 2026

99.1%

+8 more outcomes

Community forecast157 forecastersType: multiple choice

Total Vol$39.7K

24h Vol$12.9K

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Grok 4.4 released by...?

10.0%20d

July 31

67%

June 30

-10.0%14%

June 15

-2.5%4%

+1 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$18.2K

24h Vol$2.7K

POLYMARKET

Will Claude Mythos be released by the end of June 2026?

21d

Yes

95.8%

4.2%

Community forecast41 forecastersType: binary

Total Vol$26.5K

24h Vol$18.3K

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30?

2.3%21d

Anthropic + OpenAI

+0.0%96%

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

3.1%1y

1.5T+

+3.1%47%

1.25T–1.5T

+1.0%17%

1T–1.25T

-0.6%12%

+4 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$22.1K

24h Vol$357.5

POLYMARKET