AI | Prediction Markets

Best AI at the end of 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)3mo

Claude

-1.5pt60%

ChatGPT

-1.0pt22%

Grok

+0.6pt8%

+5 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$10.6M

24h Vol$78.3K

KALSHI

Anthropic IPO by which date?

9mo

December 31,

-2.0pt88%

December 15,

86%

November 30,

-0.5pt84%

+7 more outcomes

Medium quality (55)Spread unknownHigh liquidity

Total Vol$2.8M

24h Vol$86.9K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

3.5 pt (24h)3mo

↑$1.25T

+1.3pt100%

↑$1.1T

+3.6pt100%

↑$1.0T

+2.4pt100%

+10 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$4.5M

24h Vol$19K

POLYMARKET

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

1.0 pt (24h)21d

Before Apr 1, 2027

-1.0pt97%

Before Jan 1, 2027

+1.0pt96%

Before Mar 1, 2027

-4.0pt94%

+9 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.7M

24h Vol$41.7K

KALSHI

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

0.1 pt (24h)3mo

Anthropic

+0.5pt59.6%

SpaceX

+1.0pt38.4%

OpenAI

+0.1pt2%

+9 more outcomes

High quality (88)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$6M

24h Vol$10.5K

POLYMARKET

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?

5.0 pt (24h)2y

2028

-9.5pt62.4%

2027

-0.5pt29.7%

2026

-5.0pt7.9%

High quality (84)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$283.7K

24h Vol$145.7K

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

3mo

Anthropic

-4.0pt59.2%

OpenAI

+1.0pt22.3%

Google

7.8%

+12 more outcomes

High quality (89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.2M

24h Vol$21.4K

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?

15.5 pt (24h)1mo

October 31

-6.0pt57.7%

October 15

27%

September 30

-15.5pt12.6%

+19 more outcomes

Medium quality (69)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.3M

24h Vol$13.7K

POLYMARKET

Gemini 4.0 released by which date?

16.0 pt (24h)2mo

November 30

-3.0pt87%

October 31

-6.0pt71%

September 30

-16.0pt13%

+4 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$451.5K

24h Vol$33.7K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

6.5 pt (24h)1y

$2.25–$2.5T

+6.5pt24%

$2.0–$2.25T

-0.4pt21.1%

$1.75–$2.0T

18.3%

+7 more outcomes

High quality (79)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$664.8K

24h Vol$19.5K

POLYMARKET

Best AI in Sep 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)20d

Claude

-2.0pt80.2%

ChatGPT

-5.0pt10.4%

Gemini

+1.0pt2.8%

+4 more outcomes

High quality (81)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$407.5K

24h Vol$32.1K

KALSHI

Time's Person of the Year for 2026

1.0 pt (24h)3mo

Zohran Mamdani

-1.0pt29%

Pope Leo XIV

20%

Donald Trump

+2.0pt12%

+22 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.2M

24h Vol$8.1K

KALSHI

Top AI model in September?

20d

claude-fable-5.1-max

+6.0pt81%

claude-opus-5-max

+3.0pt10.5%

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

+1.0pt5.3%

+3 more outcomes

Medium quality (60)Spread unknownHigh liquidity

Total Vol$206.9K

24h Vol$52.5K

KALSHI

OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?

6.0 pt (24h)

1480+

-0.5pt65%

1490+

48%

1500+

-11.0pt19%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (61)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$299.9K

24h Vol$30.1K

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

2.5 pt (24h)21d

Alibaba

+2.5pt68.3%

Moonshot

-5.0pt26.7%

Z.ai

+2.3pt4%

+8 more outcomes

High quality (77)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$271.4K

24h Vol$28.2K

POLYMARKET

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

1.0 pt (24h)3mo

↑$900B

+10.4pt100%

↑$1.0T

+2.5pt86%

↑$1.25T

+7.0pt61%

+12 more outcomes

Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.1M

24h Vol$5.2K

POLYMARKET

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

2.0 pt (24h)3mo

Before 2030

+7.0pt72%

Before 2028

+19.9pt69%

Before 2027

+2.0pt28%

Medium quality (71)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$752.3K

24h Vol$7K

KALSHI

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

3.5 pt (24h)1y

1.8T+

+3.5pt85.3%

1.5–1.8T

-2.6pt9.8%

1.2–1.5T

-0.3pt2%

+4 more outcomes

CoinRithm reference1.8T+87%· 0 pt venue spread

High quality (77)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$407.1K

24h Vol$7.8K

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

2.1 pt (24h)9mo

$1.25T–$1.5T

21.6%

$1.75T–$2.0T

20.6%

$1.5T–$1.75T

-2.8pt16.5%

+5 more outcomes

High quality (79)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$123K

24h Vol$11.5K

POLYMARKET

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

1.6 pt (24h)1y

October 2026

55.7%

November 2026

-0.6pt24.5%

December 2026

+1.6pt4.7%

+14 more outcomes

Medium quality (70)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$188.4K

24h Vol$6.1K

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?

18.0 pt (24h)21d

No release by September 30

+18.0pt73.1%

September 30

+0.3pt4.2%

September 23

-2.0pt3.4%

+28 more outcomes

Medium quality (69)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$80.9K

24h Vol$8.6K

POLYMARKET

Tencent market share this week

Above 3.1%

99%

Above 2.2%

99%

Above 3.7%

98%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (71)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$27.5K

24h Vol$27.5K

KALSHI

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

7.7 pt (24h)21d

Moonshot

+22.5pt61%

Alibaba

-7.7pt20%

Z.ai

-3.0pt13.3%

+8 more outcomes

Medium quality (70)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$94.3K

24h Vol$6.9K

POLYMARKET

Anthropic market share this week

Above 2.25%

95%

Above 2.45%

79%

Above 2.6%

52%

+6 more outcomes

Low quality (48)Spread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$23.5K

24h Vol$23.5K

KALSHI

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

1.0 pt (24h)3mo

No IPO by December 31, 2026

+1.0pt93%

1.5T+

750B–1T

-0.2pt2%

+4 more outcomes

High quality (79)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$2.1M

24h Vol$3.6K

POLYMARKET

Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

4.1 pt (24h)3mo

50%+

+4.1pt100%

55%+

+13.0pt86%

60%+

+4.0pt44%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (67)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$89K

24h Vol$5.1K

POLYMARKET

Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?

13.0 pt (24h)3mo

1505+

+14.5pt66%

1500+

-1.0pt64%

1510+

41%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (64)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$40.6K

24h Vol$7.2K

POLYMARKET

OpenAI market share this week

Above 19.8%

99%

Above 18.7%

99%

Above 20.4%

93%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (70)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$17.4K

24h Vol$17.4K

KALSHI

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

7.0 pt (24h)3mo

-7.0pt79.2%

Yes

+7.0pt20.8%

Medium quality (74)Tight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$45K

24h Vol$6.2K

POLYMARKET

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

2027

64.3%

2026

27.6%

September 30, 2026

8.2%

High quality (75)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$20.9K

24h Vol$13.8K

POLYMARKET

Most popular AI this week

Tencent

78%

OpenAI

12.7%

Z.ai

4.2%

+4 more outcomes

Low quality (43)Spread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$16.6K

24h Vol$16.6K

KALSHI

OpenAI IPO by which date?

0.5 pt (24h)3mo

March 31, 2027

+9.5pt46.9%

June 30, 2027

45.1%

December

+0.5pt7.1%

+5 more outcomes

Medium quality (68)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$2.9M

24h Vol$1K

POLYMARKET

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

6.0 pt (24h)3mo

Anthropic

+6.0pt62.8%

OpenAI

-4.0pt20.4%

xAI

+2.0pt8%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (70)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.1M

24h Vol$3K

KALSHI

OpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

4.5 pt (24h)3mo

40%+

-0.1pt99%

50%+

+4.5pt97%

60%+

-13.0pt3%

Medium quality (54)Wide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$40K

24h Vol$5.1K

POLYMARKET

DeepSeek market share this week

Above 20.8%

84%

Above 21.9%

55%

Above 22.6%

40%

+6 more outcomes

Low quality (45)Spread unknownMedium liquidity

Total Vol$14.5K

24h Vol$14.5K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

21d

Before Dec 1, 2026

+11.0pt19%

Before Jan 1, 2027

-11.0pt17%

Before Sep 1, 2026

+3 more outcomes

Medium quality (50)Spread unknownHigh liquidity

Total Vol$1.2M

24h Vol$1.9K

KALSHI

OpenAI corporate adoption rate in August

3.0 pt (24h)21d

Above 38.5%

97%

Above 39.5%

+13.0pt75%

Above 40%

-11.0pt26%

+4 more outcomes

Medium quality (59)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$23.9K

24h Vol$9.5K

KALSHI

Best AI this week

Claude

+96.0pt81%

ChatGPT

-79.0pt8.3%

Gemini

-83.0pt5.8%

+6 more outcomes

Low quality (40)Spread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$13.7K

24h Vol$11K

KALSHI

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

11.5 pt (24h)3mo

December 31

+5.0pt90%

October 31

+11.5pt54%

Medium quality (57)Wide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$16.8K

24h Vol$8.5K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?

8.0 pt (24h)21d

Before Jan 1, 2027

+8.0pt41%

Before Oct 1, 2026

+8.0pt24%

Medium quality (65)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$16.7K

24h Vol$8K

KALSHI

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

1mo

Before Jun 1, 2027

71%

Before May 1, 2027

65%

Before Mar 1, 2027

42%

+8 more outcomes

Medium quality (71)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.1M

24h Vol$1.1K

KALSHI

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

2.0 pt (24h)3mo

-2.0pt76.2%

Yes

+2.0pt23.8%

High quality (75)Tight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$218.2K

24h Vol$4.7K

POLYMARKET

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

13y

Anthropic

+1.0pt91.3%

OpenAI

8.7%

CoinRithm referenceAnthropic95%· 1 pt venue spread

Medium quality (69)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$355K

24h Vol$2.2K

KALSHI

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

2.0 pt (24h)3mo

OpenAI

+2.0pt36%

xAI

-1.0pt14.9%

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

0.7 pt (24h)1y

1.5T+

+0.9pt79.2%

1.25T–1.5T

+2.5pt9.9%

1T–1.25T

-1.8pt4%

+4 more outcomes

High quality (77)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$236.5K

24h Vol$3.3K

POLYMARKET

When will any company achieve AGI?

3.0 pt (24h)21d

Before Jan 1, 2030

+11.0pt90%

Before Jan 1, 2029

87%

Before Jan 1, 2031

85%

+9 more outcomes

Medium quality (61)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$128.4K

24h Vol$3.5K

KALSHI

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

5.6 pt (24h)

1480+

+0.1pt95%

1490+

-5.6pt87%

1495+

+9.0pt77%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (61)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$144.6K

24h Vol$2.5K

POLYMARKET

Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

11.0 pt (24h)3mo

60%+

-11.0pt44.8%

65%+

-4.5pt23.2%

70%+

-1.5pt12.8%

+3 more outcomes

Medium quality (55)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$63.9K

24h Vol$4.2K

POLYMARKET

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