AI | Prediction Markets

Best AI at the end of 2026?

3mo

Claude

+0.3pt69.3%

ChatGPT

15.8%

Gemini

-0.4pt6.9%

+5 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$11.2M

24h Vol$93.9K

KALSHI

Anthropic IPO by which date?

9mo

December 31,

86%

December 15,

-1.0pt83%

November 30,

+3.0pt78%

+7 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$3.2M

24h Vol$54.7K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

0.5 pt (24h)3mo

↑$1.25T

+1.3pt100%

↑$1.1T

+3.6pt100%

↑$1.0T

+2.4pt100%

+10 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$4.7M

24h Vol$31.9K

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

3mo

Anthropic

-0.7pt53.5%

SpaceX

45.5%

OpenAI

-0.1pt1%

+9 more outcomes

High quality (87)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$6M

24h Vol$9.6K

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

2.0 pt (24h)3mo

Anthropic

-1.5pt67.6%

OpenAI

+2.0pt13.3%

Google

9.5%

+12 more outcomes

High quality (82)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.3M

24h Vol$23.4K

POLYMARKET

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

3mo

Before Apr 1, 2027

-1.0pt88%

Before Mar 1, 2027

86%

Before Feb 1, 2027

+1.0pt82%

+9 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$2M

24h Vol$13.7K

KALSHI

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

19.5 pt (24h)3mo

↑$900B

+10.4pt100%

↑$1.0T

+9.5pt80%

↑$1.25T

+19.5pt54%

+12 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.2M

24h Vol$16.7K

POLYMARKET

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?

8.0 pt (24h)1mo

October 31

+2.5pt84%

October 15

-12.5pt41%

September 30

-8.0pt10%

+19 more outcomes

Medium quality (69)Tight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$1.3M

24h Vol$8.5K

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

7.5 pt (24h)14d

Alibaba

-7.5pt82.2%

Moonshot

+4.9pt11.9%

Z.ai

+0.3pt3%

+8 more outcomes

Medium quality (63)Wide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$422.8K

24h Vol$27.7K

POLYMARKET

Best AI in Sep 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)13d

Claude

-1.0pt93.1%

Gemini

ChatGPT

-1.0pt1%

+4 more outcomes

Medium quality (62)Spread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$567.6K

24h Vol$14.6K

KALSHI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

0.1 pt (24h)14d

1510

+45.5pt100%

1520

+0.1pt100%

1530

+0.8pt5%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$388.9K

24h Vol$19.6K

POLYMARKET

Time's Person of the Year for 2026

1.0 pt (24h)3mo

Zohran Mamdani

-1.0pt31%

Pope Leo XIV

19%

Donald Trump

-1.0pt13%

+37 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.3M

24h Vol$5.4K

KALSHI

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

3.0 pt (24h)1y

2027

+6.0pt73%

2026

44%

September 30, 2026

-3.0pt13%

Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$172.9K

24h Vol$37.5K

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

3.6 pt (24h)1y

1.5T+

-13.2pt65%

1.25T–1.5T

-0.5pt10%

No IPO by December 31, 2027

+3.6pt8%

+4 more outcomes

Medium quality (74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$316.8K

24h Vol$19.1K

POLYMARKET

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

2.5 pt (24h)9mo

$1.5T–$1.75T

+8.0pt25.9%

$1.75T–$2.0T

+2.5pt22.2%

$2.5T+

-1.7pt13%

+5 more outcomes

High quality (75)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$169.9K

24h Vol$26.1K

POLYMARKET

Gemini 4.0 released by which date?

1.0 pt (24h)2mo

November 30

+0.5pt89%

October 31

-11.0pt64%

September 30

-1.0pt7%

+4 more outcomes

Medium quality (67)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$526K

24h Vol$7.3K

POLYMARKET

DeepSeek market share this week

8.0 pt (24h)4d

Above 22.7%

99%

Above 21.7%

99%

Above 23.6%

-2.0pt96%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (70)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$79.2K

24h Vol$50.3K

KALSHI

Best AI this week

1.0 pt (24h)4d

Claude

+1.0pt90.7%

ChatGPT

-1.0pt2.8%

Gemini

-3.0pt0.9%

+6 more outcomes

High quality (78)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$102K

24h Vol$35.3K

KALSHI

Next Claude Opus released by which date?

40.7 pt (24h)3mo

October 31

+0.6pt98%

December 31

+0.5pt98%

September 30

-0.5pt81%

+5 more outcomes

Medium quality (71)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$144.8K

24h Vol$24.1K

POLYMARKET

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

2.0 pt (24h)1y

2027

+3.0pt76%

2026

-2.0pt47%

September 30, 2026

-2.0pt14%

Medium quality (70)Tight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$234.5K

24h Vol$12.4K

POLYMARKET

Tencent market share this week

5.0 pt (24h)4d

Above 2.7%

+4.0pt92%

Above 4.5%

-12.0pt23%

Above 5.6%

-5.0pt6%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (67)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$64.3K

24h Vol$43.6K

KALSHI

Top AI model in September?

13d

claude-fable-5.1-max

+4.0pt89.6%

claude-opus-5-max

5.2%

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

2.1%

+3 more outcomes

Medium quality (56)Spread unknownHigh liquidity

Total Vol$218.1K

24h Vol$5.2K

KALSHI

When will any company achieve AGI?

9.0 pt (24h)6mo

Before Apr 1, 2028

+17.0pt92%

Before Jan 1, 2031

90%

Before Jan 1, 2030

86%

+9 more outcomes

Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$141.2K

24h Vol$7.8K

KALSHI

OpenAI market share this week

6.0 pt (24h)4d

Above 21.8%

+6.0pt10%

Above 20.8%

-6.0pt9%

Above 22.6%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$51.2K

24h Vol$22.5K

KALSHI

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?

0.4 pt (24h)14d

↑$925B

+16.0pt52.5%

↓$875B

+6.0pt16.2%

↑$975B

+1.5pt11.1%

+6 more outcomes

High quality (77)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$56.5K

24h Vol$11.9K

POLYMARKET

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

6.5 pt (24h)3mo

+6.5pt86.1%

Yes

-6.5pt13.9%

High quality (77)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$124.6K

24h Vol$5.1K

POLYMARKET

Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?

5.5 pt (24h)3mo

1500+

-7.0pt66%

1505+

-3.5pt58%

1510+

+1.5pt39%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (68)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$71.1K

24h Vol$6.9K

POLYMARKET

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

7.0 pt (24h)1mo

SpaceXAI

+12.5pt34%

Google

33%

Microsoft

+8.5pt30%

+10 more outcomes

Medium quality (64)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$47.8K

24h Vol$7.7K

POLYMARKET

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

2.0 pt (24h)3mo

Before May 1, 2027

+4.0pt41%

Before Apr 1, 2027

+11.0pt34%

Before Jun 1, 2027

-29.0pt28%

+8 more outcomes

Medium quality (71)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.1M

24h Vol$4.4K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

1.0 pt (24h)3mo

Before Jan 1, 2027

-1.0pt7%

Before Sep 1, 2026

Before Dec 1, 2026

+3 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$1.2M

24h Vol$3.9K

KALSHI

Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by which date?

3.6 pt (24h)2mo

November 30

+4.4pt99%

October 31

+3.6pt98%

September 30

+6.0pt92%

+1 more outcomes

Medium quality (65)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$38.8K

24h Vol$8.6K

POLYMARKET

What will Abdul El-Sayed say during The Weeknight?

13d

Trump

99%

Muslim / Islam

99%

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

99%

+11 more outcomes

Low quality (45)Spread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$15.1K

24h Vol$15.1K

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20

4.0 pt (24h)4d

Above 120T tokens

98%

Above 126T tokens

+11.0pt44%

Above 136T tokens

39%

+13 more outcomes

Low quality (45)Spread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$18.9K

24h Vol$11.2K

KALSHI

Anthropic market share this week

15.0 pt (24h)4d

Above 2.25%

98%

Above 2.05%

+2.0pt96%

Above 2.55%

+12.0pt89%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (62)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$19.2K

24h Vol$10.6K

KALSHI

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

3mo

Anthropic

-2.0pt67%

OpenAI

21%

xAI

+6 more outcomes

High quality (84)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.1M

24h Vol$2K

KALSHI

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

3.0 pt (24h)1y

1.8T+

-3.0pt78.2%

1.5–1.8T

+1.1pt8.9%

1.2–1.5T

+0.8pt5.9%

+4 more outcomes

CoinRithm reference1.8T+79%· 1 pt venue spread

High quality (79)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$441.3K

24h Vol$4.6K

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

1.7 pt (24h)1y

$800B

+1.7pt96%

$1T

+0.5pt85%

$1.2T

-4.0pt75%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (67)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.5M

24h Vol$1K

POLYMARKET

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?

3.0 pt (24h)2y

2028

30%

2027

+3.0pt13%

2026

+0.1pt4%

Medium quality (72)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$354.9K

24h Vol$3.6K

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

0.1 pt (24h)1y

Anthropic

-0.1pt94%

OpenAI

+0.1pt6%

CoinRithm referenceAnthropic93%· 2 pt venue spread

High quality (79)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$370.3K

24h Vol$3.5K

POLYMARKET

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

7.0 pt (24h)1y

Before 2030

+2.1pt51.2%

Before 2028

-7.0pt35.8%

Before 2027

+2.8pt13%

Medium quality (63)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$789.2K

24h Vol$1.5K

KALSHI

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

6.0 pt (24h)13y

Anthropic

-1.0pt88.5%

OpenAI

+6.0pt11.5%

CoinRithm referenceAnthropic93%· 2 pt venue spread

Medium quality (74)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$388.1K

24h Vol$2.6K

KALSHI

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

0.2 pt (24h)1y

$2.25–$2.5T

24.8%

$2.0–$2.25T

21.9%

$1.75–$2.0T

17.1%

+7 more outcomes

Medium quality (70)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$765.8K

24h Vol$1.2K

POLYMARKET

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

0.3 pt (24h)1y

October 2026

-7.0pt47.3%

November 2026

+9.6pt27.3%

December 2026

+0.3pt7.3%

+14 more outcomes

Medium quality (72)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$227.3K

24h Vol$4.2K

POLYMARKET

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

4.0 pt (24h)3mo

OpenAI

28%

xAI

+4.0pt14.9%

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

3mo

↑ 1510

+14.4pt100%

↑ 1520

100%

↑ 1500

+4.8pt100%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$212.9K

24h Vol$3.3K

POLYMARKET

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

3mo

+61.3pt100%

#10

+2.3pt100%

26%

+1 more outcomes

Medium quality (69)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$241.3K

24h Vol$2.8K

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

2.0 pt (24h)3mo

+2.0pt82.2%

Yes

-2.0pt17.8%

High quality (75)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$256.6K

24h Vol$1.9K

POLYMARKET

Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)3mo

45%+

+4.3pt76%

50%+

+1.0pt56%

55%+

-0.5pt32%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (64)Tight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$113.1K

24h Vol$4.3K

POLYMARKET

AI

Related Crypto Assets

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Best AI in Sep 2026?

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

Time's Person of the Year for 2026

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

Gemini 4.0 released by which date?

DeepSeek market share this week

Best AI this week

Next Claude Opus released by which date?

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

Tencent market share this week

Top AI model in September?

When will any company achieve AGI?

OpenAI market share this week

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?

When will Anthropic release Mythos?

Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by which date?

What will Abdul El-Sayed say during The Weeknight?

OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 14–20

Anthropic market share this week

Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Markets people searched for