Current implied probability
Anthropic 69.4%+4.0ptLeader of 26 outcomes
Market quality
85 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$11K
Liquidity
$561.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
67.0% / 68.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jun 4, 26, 5:41 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Anthropic68%
Compare venues· Anthropic
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall66% match · linked | High | 64% | -4pt | $84.2K | $4.8M | 15 minutes ago | Open → |
 PolymarketThis page | High | 68% | 0pt | $11K | $561.5K | 15 minutes ago | |
 Gemini66% match · auto | Medium | 71% | +3pt | $344 | $0 | 35 minutes ago | Open → |
 Futuur90% match · auto | Low | 67% | -1pt | $0 | $15.8K | 35 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Futuur
Which company will have the best AI model at the end of 2026?
5mo
66.3%
16.8%
9.9%
+3 more outcomes
41 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$274.5
24h Vol$0
FUTUURAlso available on Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
2.0 pts5mo
-0.9pt62.1%
-0.8pt13.6%
-0.3pt9.7%
+5 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.8M
24h Vol$84.2K
KALSHIAlso available on Gemini
Best AI at the end of 2026?
5mo
67.1%
16.7%
10.5%
+2 more outcomes
56 • Medium qualityTight spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$43.6K
24h Vol$344
GEMINIRules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.6k89.8%KALSHIGemini — No2d ago
KALSHIGemini — No2d ago$1.4k97.9%KALSHIMuse Spark — No6d ago
KALSHIMuse Spark — No6d ago$1.3k86.5%KALSHIChatGPT — No10d ago
KALSHIChatGPT — No10d ago$1.3k87.3%KALSHIGemini — No14d ago
KALSHIGemini — No14d ago$1.2k92.6%KALSHIGrok — No20d ago
KALSHIGrok — No20d agoVolume trend
$11.0kJul 228d of dataJul 29
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This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
- Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
- If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”).
- This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.