Selected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 76%Leader of 4 outcomes
December 31 76%Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$19.3K
Liquidity
$5.2K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$7K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Oct 26, 26, 5:03 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Carbon" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by the listed date to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon".
- Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.