KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Claude 76%Leader of 7 outcomes
Claude 76%Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$200
Open interest
$200
Low open interestSpread
66.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Sep 29, 26, 2:00 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LMArena Leaderboard
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.