KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityZohran Mamdani 23%-5.0ptLeader of 25 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$30.4K
Liquidity
$392.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
22.0% / 23.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Feb 19, 26, 8:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Zohran Mamdani23%
Compare venues· Zohran Mamdani
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?
5mo
+0.5pt31.4%
+0.7pt13.6%
-0.2pt12.8%
+46 more outcomes
Community forecast209 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Polymarket
TIME Person of the Year 2026
3.0 pts5mo
-3.0pt27%
-2.0pt18%
-1.5pt15%
+19 more outcomes
69 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.1K
24h Vol$856.6
POLYMARKETRules
If Taylor Swift is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This will count towards the payout criterion: If multiple persons win, all persons that are listed are encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
- If, for example, the Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, both “Joe Biden” and “Kamala Harris” strikes are encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
- The person must be explicitly named as the Person of the Year or pictured on the/a relevant cover if they are associated with the group/concept winning (the picture is only relevant for a natural human being winning).
- Some examples to illustrate this: “Jamal Khasogghi” would resolve to Yes in 2018, when “The Guardians” won, as he is also named and shown on a cover and falls within “The Guardians”.
- Similarly, “Bill Gates” would resolve to Yes in 2005.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$30.4kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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If Taylor Swift is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This will count towards the payout criterion: If multiple persons win, all persons that are listed are encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
- If, for example, the Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, both “Joe Biden” and “Kamala Harris” strikes are encompassed within the Payout Criterion.
- The person must be explicitly named as the Person of the Year or pictured on the/a relevant cover if they are associated with the group/concept winning (the picture is only relevant for a natural human being winning).
- Some examples to illustrate this: “Jamal Khasogghi” would resolve to Yes in 2018, when “The Guardians” won, as he is also named and shown on a cover and falls within “The Guardians”.
- Similarly, “Bill Gates” would resolve to Yes in 2005.