2028 Presidency: Vance, Newsom, or Other?

PoliticsOne-OffMusic Entertainment US Politics Election AI2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 22, 2026, 5:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

Vance (R) defeats Newsom (D) 5.7%-0.3%

Leader of 9 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale

Oct 15, 25, 3:31 AMNov 7, 28, 6:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Vance (R) defeats Newsom (D)6%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Each option requires that the listed candidate both be nominated by their respective party and then win the election.

This is a derivative market, and will resolve according to these underlying markets:
@/EvanDaniel/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20-zA926yNPOA
@/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-e7fd97afa9bf
@/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-757313dd0344
Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Independent or 3rd party wins are included in the "Other" option.

Volume trend

$33

Jul 172d of dataJul 22

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2028 Presidency: Vance, Newsom, or Other?

PoliticsOne-OffMusic Entertainment US Politics Election AI2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Data quality warningStale data

Data as of Jul 22, 2026, 5:20 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2

Current community forecast

Vance (R) defeats Newsom (D) 5.7%-0.3%

Leader of 9 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale

Oct 15, 25, 3:31 AMNov 7, 28, 6:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Vance (R) defeats Newsom (D)6%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

Each option requires that the listed candidate both be nominated by their respective party and then win the election.

This is a derivative market, and will resolve according to these underlying markets:
@/EvanDaniel/who-will-be-elected-president-in-20-zA926yNPOA
@/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-democratic-nominee-e7fd97afa9bf
@/DylanSlagh/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-757313dd0344
Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Independent or 3rd party wins are included in the "Other" option.

Volume trend

$33

Jul 172d of dataJul 22

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