2028 Republican presidential nominee
1.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionEntertainmentMusic2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityMarco Rubio 29%-1.0%Leader of 38 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$79K
Liquidity
$35.5M
High liquidityBid / Ask
28.0% / 29.0%
Spread
3.6%
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Nov 12, 24, 1:30 PMNov 7, 28, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Marco Rubio29%
Compare venues· J.D. Vance
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall74% match · verified | High | 41% | 0pt | $538.1K | $47M | 3 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | High | 41% | 0pt | $79K | $35.5M | 19 minutes ago | |
 Limitless95% match · auto | Low | 24% | -17pt | $0 | $0 | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad70% match · auto | Low | 78% | +37pt | $0 | $0 | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
 Smarkets64% match · verified | Low | 38% | -3pt | $0 | $0 | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets88% match · linked | — | 39% | -2pt | — | — | 11 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets74% match · linked | — | 40% | -1pt | — | — | 11 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets74% match · linked | — | 41% | 0pt | — | — | 10 hours ago | Open → |
 PredictIt74% match · linked | — | 38% | -3pt | — | — | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
23.5%
50%
2.9%
+4 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$15.2K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
39.4%
27.8%
3.5%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast19 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
0.2%2y
49%
+0.3%41%
-0.6%26%
+125 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$671.6M
24h Vol$538.1K
POLYMARKETAlso available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
38%
29%
5%
+11 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
2y
3%
2.1%
0.1%
+35 more outcomes
Community forecast801 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the Republican nominee for President in 2028?
2y
1.8%
3%
0.5%
+22 more outcomes
Community forecast62 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Myriad
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
1.3%73y
-0.0%77.7%
-0.1%10.5%
+0.3%0.6%
+29 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Smarkets
Republican Presidential Nominee
0.2%
3.3%
0.1%
+24 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$4.2K
24h Vol$0
SMARKETSRules
If Thomas Massie wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Nikki Haley wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Greg Abbott wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$79.0kJul 210d of dataJul 11
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If Thomas Massie wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Nikki Haley wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Greg Abbott wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.