Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJD Vance 46.8%Leader of 38 outcomes
Forecasters
810
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.2 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 20, 23, 12:02 AM UTCFeb 20, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will either Rubio or Vance be the 2028 Republican nominee for president?
Manifold MarketsWill Ron Desantis be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the Republican nominee for Vice President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsLA-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiLA-04 Republican nominee?
KalshiLA-05 Republican nominee?
KalshiRules
Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Republican National Convention in 2028
- Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention.
- If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention.
- Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"
- Remember to bet for "Other".
- Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 51%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · JD Vance 45%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will be the Republican nominee for President in 2028? · JD Vance 47%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2028 Republican presidential nominee · J.D. Vance 45%
- Also available on Smarkets — Republican Presidential Nominee · JD Vance 46%
- Also available on Myriad — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · JD Vance 81%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee · JVAN 47%
- Also available on Gemini — 2028 Republican Nominee for President? · J.D. Vance 48%
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+41.0pt56%
- Nicolás Maduro-39.9pt43%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.6M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.9M
- 24h Vol
- $635.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.7M
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices JD Vance at 47% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028? resolve?
- Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on February 20, 2029.
- How is Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Republican National Convention in 2028
- Where else is Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, PredictIt, Manifold Markets, Kalshi, Smarkets, Myriad, Robinhood (Rothera), Gemini.