Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastJD Vance 41.4%Leader of 38 outcomes
Forecasters
804
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 37 minutes ago
Aug 20, 23, 12:02 AMFeb 20, 29, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Ron Desantis3%
Compare venues· JD Vance
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall74% match · linked | High | 40% | — | $227K | $37M | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 PolymarketMost active85% match · verified | Medium | 49% | — | $946.4K | $55.4M | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 Gemini85% match · linked | Medium | 40% | — | $275 | $0 | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad85% match · linked | Low | 35% | — | $0 | $0 | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless85% match · linked | Low | 50% | — | $0 | $0 | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
 Smarkets64% match · linked | Low | 40% | — | $0 | $0 | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets82% match · linked | — | 42% | — | — | — | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 41% | — | — | — | 37 minutes ago | |
| Manifold Markets85% match · linked | — | 41% | — | — | — | 3 days ago | Open → |
 PredictIt82% match · verified | — | 39% | — | — | — | 1 minute ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
49%
+0.1pt43%
27%
+125 more outcomes
74 • Medium qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$681.6M
24h Vol$946.4K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
+0.2pt41.4%
-0.5pt25.2%
+0.2pt23.5%
+3 more outcomes
Community forecast19 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
50%
48%
43%
+4 more outcomes
22 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$15.2K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Myriad
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
1.9 pts73y
+0.0pt35.2%
-0.1pt19.6%
+0.0pt8.5%
+29 more outcomes
30 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Gemini
2028 Republican Nominee for President?
2y
39.5%
30.5%
5.5%
+10 more outcomes
51 • Medium qualityTight spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$33.8K
24h Vol$275
GEMINIAlso available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2y
39%
28%
5%
+11 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the Republican nominee for President in 2028?
2y
+1.2pt42.4%
-1.1pt24.5%
6.2%
+22 more outcomes
Community forecast66 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Kalshi
2028 Republican presidential nominee
2y
40.4%
-1.0pt30.3%
-0.2pt5%
+35 more outcomes
89 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$54.3M
24h Vol$227K
KALSHIAlso available on Smarkets
Republican Presidential Nominee
40%
25.6%
5.3%
+23 more outcomes
22 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$5.1K
24h Vol$0
SMARKETSRules
Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Republican National Convention in 2028
- Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention.
- If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention.
- Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"
- Remember to bet for "Other".
- Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$4.1k70.0%KALSHIMarco Rubio — No7h ago
KALSHIMarco Rubio — No7h ago$9.9k99.5%KALSHIBrian Kemp — No10h ago
KALSHIBrian Kemp — No10h ago$3.4k98.8%KALSHIThomas Massie — No17h ago
KALSHIThomas Massie — No17h ago$2.7k99.0%KALSHIThomas Massie — No17h ago
KALSHIThomas Massie — No17h ago$1.4k98.9%KALSHIThomas Massie — No17h ago
KALSHIThomas Massie — No17h ago$3.1k99.0%KALSHIThomas Massie — No17h ago
KALSHIThomas Massie — No17h ago$7.9k98.8%KALSHIThomas Massie — No17h ago
KALSHIThomas Massie — No17h ago$1.8k97.1%POLYMARKETWill Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — No0x3c63…3e40yesterday
POLYMARKETWill Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — No0x3c63…3e40yesterdayVolume trend
$298Jul 819d of dataJul 28
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Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Republican National Convention in 2028
- Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention.
- If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention.
- Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"
- Remember to bet for "Other".
- Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added