PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
JD Vance 20%Leader of 128 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.2M
Liquidity
$37.5M
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.6% / 0.7%
Spread
16.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 11, 25, 7:05 PMNov 7, 28, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
JD Vance20%
Compare venues· JD Vance
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 20% | 0pt | $1.2M | $37.5M | 1 minute ago | |
 Kalshi80% match · verified | Medium | 18% | -2pt | $256.5K | $36.3M | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
 Smarkets85% match · auto | Low | 13% | -7pt | $23 | $0 | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless94% match · auto | Low | 50% | +30pt | $0 | $0 | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
 Futuur85% match · linked | Low | 15% | -5pt | $0 | $0 | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad83% match · auto | Low | 36% | +16pt | $0 | $0 | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets87% match · auto | — | 19% | -1pt | — | — | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
Presidential Election Winner 2028
2y
50%
50%
50%
+4 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$16.7K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Manifold Markets
2028 US Presidential Election winner?
2y
0.3%
-0.2%13.4%
0.2%
+42 more outcomes
Community forecast1,006 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Smarkets
2028 Presidential Election Winner
6.7%
0.2%
0.1%
+30 more outcomes
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$312.4K
24h Vol$23
SMARKETSAlso available on Futuur
US Presidential Election Winner in 2028
3mo
15%
15%
14%
+2 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$299.9
24h Vol$0
FUTUURAlso available on Myriad
US Presidential Election Winner 2028
46.1%2y
-0.5%36.3%
+4.3%26.8%
-0.7%5.1%
+28 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Kalshi
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
0.1%3y
+0.1%1%
18%
2%
+27 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$50.5M
24h Vol$256.5K
KALSHIRules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
- This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
- If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.1k0.6%Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — YesDesy-172519218523431m ago
$1.0k98.0%Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — No0xed3e…2a9e3d ago
$1.0k97.9%Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — No0xbe1a…03a93d ago
$1.0k98.0%Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — No0xe76a…37c43d ago
$1.0k98.0%Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — No0x0240…78f23d ago
$1.0k98.0%Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — No0xbe1a…03a93d ago
$1.0k98.0%Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — No0xc550…e0903d ago
$1.0k98.0%Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — No0xc550…e0903d ago
Volume trend
$1.2MJul 210d of dataJul 11
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The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
- This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
- If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.