Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
1.6 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsMiddle East2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
October 24 · —
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Stored reference
October 24 100%Leader of 31 outcomes
October 24 100%Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$208.7K
Liquidity
$372.9K
High liquidityOpen interest
$1.3M
Bid / Ask
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October 24Spread
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Comments
388
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jul 16, 26, 11:11 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 8:29 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 1Won
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August 15Won
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August 2Won
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August 3Won
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August 31Won
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August 4Won
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August 9Won
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July 18Won
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July 20Won
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July 22Won
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July 23Won
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July 24Won
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July 25Won
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July 26Won
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Market depth · October 24
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWhich of the following things will happen in the 2026 USA/Israel vs. Iran conflict by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
- A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
