PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Gavin Newsom 19%-0.4%Leader of 128 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1M
Liquidity
$70.8M
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.6% / 0.7%
Spread
16.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jul 11, 25, 6:35 PMNov 7, 28, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Gavin Newsom19%
Compare venues· Gavin Newsom
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 19% | 0pt | $1.1M | $70.8M | 13 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi74% match · verified | Medium | 19% | 0pt | $391.3K | $100.2M | 9 minutes ago | Open → |
 Smarkets64% match · auto | Low | 21% | +2pt | $1 | $0 | 6 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless94% match · auto | Low | 23% | +4pt | $0 | $0 | 6 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad78% match · auto | Low | 48% | +29pt | $0 | $0 | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets87% match · verified | — | 20% | +1pt | — | — | 30 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets80% match · verified | — | 22% | +3pt | — | — | 2 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Limitless
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
23%
13.9%
5.5%
+3 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$12.2K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Democratic Nominee for 2028 Presidential Election
1y
7.1%
20%
6%
+14 more outcomes
Community forecast21 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2y
-0.1%21.7%
+0.6%11.7%
-0.1%6.5%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast13 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Myriad
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
4.7%73y
+0.1%48.3%
-0.1%4.5%
-0.1%22.1%
+29 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Kalshi
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
0.1%2y
-0.1%0%
-0.1%1%
+0.1%4%
+43 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$147.2M
24h Vol$391.3K
KALSHIAlso available on Smarkets
Democratic Presidential Nominee
13.5%
0.1%
2.6%
+19 more outcomes
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$10.5K
24h Vol$1
SMARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
- Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.2k81.1%Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — No0xdb03…e8d98h ago
$1.5k15.7%Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — YesDLEK4d ago
$1.3k99.1%Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — No1lakinga116d ago
$4.8k99.4%Nojnsnubbb8d ago
$17.1k99.3%Nokadedavin11d ago
Volume trend
$1.1MJul 210d of dataJul 11
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
- Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.