Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
4.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionMiddle EastChessSports1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityGadi Eizenkot 43.1%+1.0ptLeader of 18 outcomes
Market quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$344.1
Liquidity
$41.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 11.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 11, 26, 12:00 AMOct 27, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Naftali Bennett12%
Compare venues· Gadi Eisenkot
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall83% match · verified | High | 52% | -3pt | $235.5K | $1.8M | 11 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Medium | 53% | -2pt | $344.1 | $41.3K | 11 minutes ago | |
 Futuur68% match · linked | Low | 55% | 0pt | $0 | $3.5K | 11 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless83% match · linked | Low | 50% | -5pt | $0 | $0 | 11 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets83% match · linked | — | 46% | -9pt | — | — | 37 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets78% match · linked | — | 51% | -4pt | — | — | 10 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets83% match · linked | — | 48% | -7pt | — | — | 10 days ago | Open → |
 PredictIt69% match · auto | — | 3% | -52pt | — | — | 11 minutes ago | Open → |
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FUTUURRules
If Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).
- If no government forms by Oct 27, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes.
- If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
- If Naftali Bennett becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Gadi Eizenkot becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
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$344Jul 227d of dataJul 28
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If Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).
- If no government forms by Oct 27, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes.
- If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
- If Naftali Bennett becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Gadi Eizenkot becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.