KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityGadi Eizenkot 43.4%Leader of 18 outcomes
Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$697.7
Liquidity
$41.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Apr 11, 26, 12:00 AMOct 27, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Itamar Ben Gvir1%
Compare venues· Gadi Eisenkot
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall83% match · verified | High | 52% | -3pt | $237.3K | $2.1M | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Low | 53% | -2pt | $697.7 | $41.2K | 18 minutes ago | |
 Futuur68% match · linked | Low | 55% | 0pt | $0 | $3.5K | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless83% match · linked | Low | 52% | -3pt | $0 | $0 | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets83% match · linked | — | 46% | -9pt | — | — | 37 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets78% match · linked | — | 51% | -4pt | — | — | 10 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets83% match · linked | — | 48% | -7pt | — | — | 10 days ago | Open → |
 PredictIt69% match · auto | — | 3% | -52pt | — | — | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
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Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election
2mo
55.6%
35.4%
9.1%
37 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.1K
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
If Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).
- If no government forms by Oct 27, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes.
- If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
- If Naftali Bennett becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Gadi Eizenkot becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.2k66.0%POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoGeoStrategistPro2d ago
POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoGeoStrategistPro2d ago$11.4k99.4%POLYMARKETWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE363d ago
POLYMARKETWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE363d ago$6.3k62.0%POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Noflawfence5d ago
POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Noflawfence5d ago$11.0k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE367d ago
POLYMARKETWill Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE367d ago$1.1k99.6%POLYMARKETWill Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Nohklcrypt10d ago
POLYMARKETWill Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Nohklcrypt10d ago$6.6k32.2%POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — YesFussy-Countryside10d ago
POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — YesFussy-Countryside10d ago$5.2k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — No0xe5da…03a113d ago
POLYMARKETWill Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — No0xe5da…03a113d ago$1.0k99.7%POLYMARKETWill Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoCarpenter15d ago
POLYMARKETWill Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoCarpenter15d agoVolume trend
$698Jul 227d of dataJul 28
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If Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government).
- If no government forms by Oct 27, 2027, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes.
- If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.
- If Naftali Bennett becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Gadi Eizenkot becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.