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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Chess

Chess

77 related markets tracked across sources for Chess.

Open Markets

37

Total Volume

$5,123,720

24h Volume

$190,817

Total Liquidity

$771,724

Open Markets

37

Total Volume

$5,123,720

24h Volume

$190,817

Total Liquidity

$771,724

Related Topics

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Topics

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Bitcoin577

Politics

Middle East370Geopolitics263Politics4143Election3217US Politics2337Latin America468

Macro

Fed114Corporate Actions215Commodities143

Sports

Sports6245Soccer3137Baseball613Esports443Basketball381FIFA World Cup1038Tennis709American Football303

Tech

Tech605

Science

Space134

Weather

Weather296

Theme

Exchange546Stablecoin433

Entity

Binance421

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2026 World Chess Championship: Winner

2026 World Chess Championship: Winner

1.0%6mo
Javokhir Sindarov
Javokhir Sindarov
+1.0%66%
Gukesh Dommaraju
Gukesh Dommaraju
-2.0%33%
Player A
Player A
0%

+10 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$9.3K
24h Vol$2.7K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

6mo
Manifold Markets
Gukesh D
36.4%
Manifold Markets
Javokhir Sindarov
63.6%
Community forecast53 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$30.3K
24h Vol$300
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Who will win the 2026 UzChess Cup (Masters division)?

4d
Manifold Markets
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
39.2%
Manifold Markets
Arjun Erigaisi
30.4%
Manifold Markets
Mukhiddin Madaminov
0.9%

+7 more outcomes

Community forecast12 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$18.8K
24h Vol$4.2K
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

2y
Manifold Markets
Yes
42.3%
Manifold Markets
No
57.7%
Community forecast2,174 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$1.9M
24h Vol$108
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

6mo
Manifold Markets
Yes
35.5%
Manifold Markets
No
64.5%
Community forecast55 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$11.1K
24h Vol$435.9
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner

FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner

2y
Javokhir Sindarov
Javokhir Sindarov
65%
Hikaru Nakamura
Hikaru Nakamura
-1.0%2%
Anish Giri
Anish Giri
1%

+6 more outcomes

60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$11.5K
24h Vol$138.9
KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Which country will win the 2026 Chess Olympiad (Women's event)?

3mo
Manifold Markets
China
32%
Manifold Markets
India
20.5%
Manifold Markets
Ukraine
3.3%

+8 more outcomes

Community forecast2 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$410
24h Vol$410
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Which country will win the 2026 Chess Olympiad (Open event)?

3mo
Manifold Markets
USA
21.2%
Manifold Markets
India
27.8%
Manifold Markets
China
3.6%

+8 more outcomes

Community forecast4 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$337.3
24h Vol$337.3
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Chess Prop Bets: 2026 World Chess Championships

6mo
Manifold Markets
The "Home Field" Factor: Will the venue be in either India or Uzbekistan?
17%
Manifold Markets
Will the match begin before November 1, 2026?
3%
Manifold Markets
Will any game feature an opening move other than 1. e4 or 1. d4?
84%

+15 more outcomes

Community forecast19 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$2.1K
24h Vol$110
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Best Picture Nominees? (2027 Oscars)

7mo
Manifold Markets
The Odyssey
88.8%
Manifold Markets
Dune: Part Three
81.9%
Manifold Markets
Project Hail Mary
76%

+18 more outcomes

Community forecast15 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$1.2K
24h Vol$225
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?

2.0%18d
Yes
Yes
-0.0%6%
No
No
+0.0%95%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$41.9K
24h Vol$98.5
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?

No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by June 30?

0.1%18d
Yes
Yes
5%
No
No
96%
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$6.5K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

6mo
Manifold Markets
Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.
72.8%
Manifold Markets
I will think that a Chinese model is the best coding model for a period of at least a week.
15.6%
Manifold Markets
SSI will release a product
23.3%

+92 more outcomes

Community forecast246 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$60.9K
24h Vol$86.2
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

What year will someone surpass Magnus Carlsen on the list of Top Rated FIDE players?

4y
Manifold Markets
2023
1%
Manifold Markets
2024
1%
Manifold Markets
2025
6.5%

+7 more outcomes

Community forecast48 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$8.8K
24h Vol$99.2
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will I win a game of chess against Manifold? (see other poll)

4mo
Manifold Markets
Yes
34.8%
Manifold Markets
No
65.2%
Community forecast63 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$9.5K
24h Vol$73.9
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will Omar Aboutaleb (0mar) hit Candidate Master before June 12

4d
Manifold Markets
Yes
2.6%
Manifold Markets
No
97.4%
Community forecast77 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$14K
24h Vol$12
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

How will the 2026 World Chess Championship end?

6mo
Manifold Markets
Gukesh Dommaraju wins on classical
25.1%
Manifold Markets
Javokhir Sindarov wins on classical
47.3%
Manifold Markets
Gukesh Dommaraju wins by tiebreak
12.6%

+1 more outcomes

Community forecast14 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$741.7
24h Vol$55
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

If I livestream a game of chess with my partner and run a market on the outcome, will that market get at least 15 traders?

19d
Manifold Markets
Yes
66.9%
Manifold Markets
No
33.1%
Community forecast29 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$608.4
24h Vol$0
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
2026 Grand Chess Tour: Super Rapid and Blitz Croatia Winner

2026 Grand Chess Tour: Super Rapid and Blitz Croatia Winner

1.0%25d
Vincent Keymer
Vincent Keymer
+1.0%25%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
-1.0%25%
Alireza Firouzja
Alireza Firouzja
+0.5%22%

+18 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$129
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

What team will win NSBA 4

2mo
Manifold Markets
Team GidTheKid
3.2%
Manifold Markets
Team Xpoes
10.4%
Manifold Markets
Team ConnorChang
25%

+11 more outcomes

Community forecast16 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$873.8
24h Vol$25
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

12.0%1y
Naftali Bennett
Naftali Bennett
-12.0%30%
Benjamin Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu
+5.0%38%
Gadi Eizenkot
Gadi Eizenkot
21%

+15 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$339.8
24h Vol$16.9
KalshiKALSHI
Will Jimmy Kimmel be fired this year?

Will Jimmy Kimmel be fired this year?

5.0%6mo
Yes
Yes
+5.0%23%
No
No
77%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$413.4
24h Vol$0.5
KalshiKALSHI
Will early elections in the UK be announced before 2027?

Will early elections in the UK be announced before 2027?

1.0%6mo
Yes
Yes
+1.0%10%
No
No
90%
49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$333.6
24h Vol$4.2
KalshiKALSHI
FIDE World Team Blitz Chess Championship Winner

FIDE World Team Blitz Chess Championship Winner

17d
WR Chess
WR Chess
61%
Dragon Chilling
Dragon Chilling
1%
Hexamind Chess Team
Hexamind Chess Team
28%

+22 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$108
24h Vol$30
KalshiKALSHI
46th FIDE Chess Olympiad: Team USA

46th FIDE Chess Olympiad: Team USA

38.0%3mo
Hikaru Nakamura
Hikaru Nakamura
+38.0%70%
John Donaldson
John Donaldson
1%
Levon Aronian
Levon Aronian
0%

+12 more outcomes

32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$75.5
24h Vol$0.5
KalshiKALSHI
Grand Chess Tour 2026 Finals Winner

Grand Chess Tour 2026 Finals Winner

3.0%3mo
Wesley So
Wesley So
+3.0%16%
Fabiano Caruana
Fabiano Caruana
-1.0%25%
Alireza Firouzja
Alireza Firouzja
11%

+15 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$42.6
24h Vol$3.6
KalshiKALSHI
When will France announce a snap election?

When will France announce a snap election?

6mo
Yes
Yes
23%
No
No
77%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$47.1
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
Next government of the United Kingdom?

Next government of the United Kingdom?

3y
Reform UK majority
Reform UK majority
15%
Reform UK minority
Reform UK minority
11%
Reform UK minority + Conservative support
Reform UK minority + Conservative support
15%

+16 more outcomes

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$19.9
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 10 Rated in July 2026

FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 10 Rated in July 2026

39.0%1mo
Anish Giri
Anish Giri
-39.0%50%
Alireza Firouzja
Alireza Firouzja
-51.0%8%
Magnus Carlsen
Magnus Carlsen
99%

+17 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$13.4
24h Vol$1.8
KalshiKALSHI
46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament Winner

46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament Winner

4mo
China
China
8%
United States of America
United States of America
-8.0%28%
India
India
39%

+22 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$13.1
24h Vol$0.2
KalshiKALSHI
FIDE World Team Rapid Chess Championship Winner

FIDE World Team Rapid Chess Championship Winner

15d
WR Chess
WR Chess
61%
Hexamind Chess Team
Hexamind Chess Team
27%
Kazchess
Kazchess
0%

+22 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$10.5
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in July 2026

FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in July 2026

1mo
Magnus Carlsen
Magnus Carlsen
99%
Hikaru Nakamura
Hikaru Nakamura
99%
Fabiano Caruana
Fabiano Caruana
99%

+11 more outcomes

49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$8.6
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
Japan consumer confidence for June 2026

Japan consumer confidence for June 2026

19d
Above 28.5
Above 28.5
86%
Above 29.0
Above 29.0
98%
Above 29.5
Above 29.5
86%

+12 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$6.4
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
Titled Tuesday Winner: June 16th

Titled Tuesday Winner: June 16th

19d
Arjun Erigaisi
Arjun Erigaisi
6%
Aravindh Chithambaram
Aravindh Chithambaram
5%
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
18%

+22 more outcomes

32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2.4
24h Vol$2.4
KalshiKALSHI
US consumer confidence on Jun 11, 2026

US consumer confidence on Jun 11, 2026

15h
Above 76.3
Above 76.3
0%
Above 76.8
Above 76.8
0%
Above 77.3
Above 77.3
0%

+12 more outcomes

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
Titled Tuesday Top 3: Jun 16

Titled Tuesday Top 3: Jun 16

19d
Arjun Erigaisi
Arjun Erigaisi
0%
Sina Movahed
Sina Movahed
0%
Dmitry Andreikin
Dmitry Andreikin
0%

+22 more outcomes

28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
Titled Tuesday Top 5: Jun 16

Titled Tuesday Top 5: Jun 16

19d
Arjun Erigaisi
Arjun Erigaisi
0%
Sina Movahed
Sina Movahed
0%
Dmitry Andreikin
Dmitry Andreikin
0%

+22 more outcomes

28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI