Chess
206 related markets tracked across sources for Chess.
Open Markets
107
Total Volume
$7,393,317
24h Volume
$27,717
Total Liquidity
$2,819,592
FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
2y
70%
-2.0%28%
3%
+6 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceJavokhir Sindarov66%· ±4 pts
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$12.2K
KALSHI
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
5mo
35%
+0.4%12%
4%
+46 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$3.2M
24h Vol$1.7K
POLYMARKET
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
74y
88.4%
83.6%
83.4%
+49 more outcomes
Community forecast160 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?
5.0%1y
+4.0%61%
58%
57%
+12 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$25.7K
24h Vol$4.8K
KALSHI
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
2.0%1y
+4.0%52%
+2.0%36%
+8.0%10%
+15 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceGadi Eisenkot53%· ±50 pts
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$70.8K
24h Vol$427.8
KALSHI
Who will become Prime Minister of India after next general election?
1.0%3y
-1.0%47%
-4.0%20%
-2.0%8%
+6 more outcomes
56 • Medium qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$31.3K
24h Vol$1.8K
KALSHI
Titled Tuesday Winner: Jul 28
4.0%16d
+4.0%12%
10%
+1.0%9%
+51 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$7.5K
24h Vol$2.9K
KALSHI
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
0.5%5mo
84%
+0.0%16%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$47.8K
24h Vol$510.4
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?
11mo
97%
3%
Community forecast69 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Titled Tuesday Top 8: Jul 28
2.0%16d
34%
29%
23%
+51 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$6K
24h Vol$1.1K
KALSHITitled Tuesday Top 3: Jul 28
16.0%16d
+16.0%23%
+3.0%17%
15%
+51 more outcomes
36 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$1.8K
24h Vol$1K
KALSHIWho will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
5mo
-1.4%66.3%
+1.4%33.7%
Community forecast56 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Sinquefield Cup Winner
1.5%26d
50%
50%
50%
+11 more outcomes
60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$9.7K
24h Vol$168.7
POLYMARKETWill anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?
5mo
93%
7%
Community forecast41 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Gotham Chess (Levy Rozman) join Manifold before the end of 2026?
5mo
84%
16%
Community forecast17 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Next Prime Minister of Spain?
0.1%1y
81%
50%
50%
+55 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceAlberto Núñez Feijóo81%· ±6 pts
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$71.5K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKET
2026 World Chess Championship: Winner
5mo
66%
34%
0%
+10 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceJavokhir Sindarov66%· ±4 pts
83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$29K
24h Vol$6
POLYMARKET
Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?
3mo
38%
23%
-0.8%11%
+15 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$19.7K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETWhich country will win the 2026 Chess Olympiad (Women's event)?
2mo
32%
20.5%
16.3%
+8 more outcomes
Community forecast2 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSParty of Next Prime Minister of Romania?
2.0%5mo
-0.5%34%
-2.0%21%
17%
+10 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$177.8K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
2y
60%
40%
Community forecast86 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho will be the top 10 Chess players at the end of 2026?
5mo
+0.3%98.3%
+0.3%96.3%
94.5%
+18 more outcomes
Community forecast32 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?
124y
36.1%
31.9%
15%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast81 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho will be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
3y
46%
23.7%
17.4%
+13 more outcomes
Community forecast49 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Sinquefield Cup Winner
1mo
22%
+1.0%19%
15%
+7 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$3.8K
24h Vol$199.8
KALSHIWho will be World Chess Champion at the end of the 2020s?
3y
+2.7%34.2%
+1.2%19.9%
-5.8%16.8%
+10 more outcomes
Community forecast38 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSEsports World Cup Chess Finals Winner
4.0%27d
+4.0%58%
18%
13%
+14 more outcomes
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2.5K
24h Vol$180.2
KALSHI2026 Esports World Cup - Chess winner?
21d
-6.5%37.7%
+3.0%23%
+1.0%10.4%
+6 more outcomes
Community forecast16 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow will the Hubble Tension ("crisis in cosmology") be resolved?
3y
+2.2%51.9%
+2.0%31.1%
-4.3%17%
Community forecast53 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSBest Picture Nominees? (2027 Oscars)
5mo
+3.0%95.1%
81.9%
80.2%
+18 more outcomes
Community forecast23 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Gukesh D win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
5mo
66.4%
33.6%
Community forecast32 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSChess Prop Bets: 2026 World Chess Championships
5mo
84%
68.3%
64.9%
+15 more outcomes
Community forecast19 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Fidelity National Financial (FNF) beat quarterly earnings?
25.5%10d
-0.3%52%
+0.3%49%
63 • Medium qualityTight spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1K
24h Vol$603.5
POLYMARKET
Jimmy Kimmel: Fired in 2026?
1.0%5mo
90%
-1.0%10%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$47K
24h Vol$8.5
KALSHIWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
2y
57%
43%
Community forecast2,183 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill chess be solved by 2040?
13y
86.6%
13.4%
Community forecast251 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich country will win the 2026 Chess Olympiad (Open event)?
2mo
+2.4%30.7%
+3.3%23.2%
-2.2%13.2%
+8 more outcomes
Community forecast7 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Kenya get a chess international master within 1year?
11mo
86.9%
13.1%
Community forecast2 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSChennai Grand Masters Winner
3d
99%
4%
4%
+5 more outcomes
44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$26.5K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIWhat games will I enjoy playing with my partner?
5mo
100%
100%
100%
+217 more outcomes
Community forecast80 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich parties will be part of the next government of Romania?
52%
+3.0%44%
36%
+3 more outcomes
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$27K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKET
FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in August 2026
1mo
99%
99%
99%
+17 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$19.3K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIFIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 10 Rated in August 2026
1mo
99%
99%
99%
+17 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$15.2K
24h Vol$0
KALSHI
46th FIDE Chess Olympiad: Team USA
2mo
99%
99%
99%
+12 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$15.3K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIWhen will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?
1y
-0.5%53%
+0.3%36.6%
+0.2%10.4%
Community forecast30 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026?
5mo
97%
3%
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$8K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
5mo
100%
100%
100%
+92 more outcomes
Community forecast263 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?
3y
55%
45%
Community forecast60 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS