US Politics

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance

50%

Marco Rubio

+0.1pt20%

Tucker Carlson

+39 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$701.3M

24h Vol$329.4K

POLYMARKET

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

1.6 pt (24h)2y

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

+0.4pt19%

Jon Ossoff

+0.5pt16%

Gavin Newsom

+0.1pt14%

+48 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$1.3B

24h Vol$146.1K

POLYMARKET

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Jon Ossoff

17.2%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

15.2%

Gavin Newsom

14.1%

+45 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$213.7M

24h Vol$627.6K

KALSHI

Presidential Election Winner 2028

0.9 pt (24h)2y

JD Vance

-0.5pt24%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

13%

Jon Ossoff

12%

+49 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$704M

24h Vol$68.1K

POLYMARKET

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

3.9 pt (24h)3mo

Gadi Eizenkot

+3.9pt58.6%

Benjamin Netanyahu

28.3%

Naftali Bennett

-1.0pt7.1%

+16 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$36.6M

24h Vol$252.2K

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

3mo

86%

Yes

14%

CoinRithm referenceNo86%· 1 pt venue spread

High quality (91)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$65M

24h Vol$100.3K

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

0.2 pt (24h)3mo

December 31

-0.2pt49.6%

October 31

-1.0pt29.1%

September 30

12%

+17 more outcomes

High quality (83)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$27M

24h Vol$222.8K

POLYMARKET

2028 Republican presidential nominee

0.1 pt (24h)2y

J.D. Vance

45.5%

Marco Rubio

-1.0pt20.2%

Ron DeSantis

-0.1pt4%

+35 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$63.7M

24h Vol$72.7K

KALSHI

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

0.1 pt (24h)3mo

Nicolás Maduro

-0.1pt87.4%

Delcy Rodríguez

-2.5pt9.5%

María Corina Machado

+0.2pt2.1%

+13 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$96M

24h Vol$35.6K

POLYMARKET

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

4mo

D-House, D-Senate

+1.0pt47.1%

D-House, R-Senate

-1.0pt35.3%

R-House, R-Senate

15.7%

+1 more outcomes

High quality (95)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$12M

24h Vol$298K

KALSHI

Which party will win the U.S. House?

4mo

Democratic Party

+1.0pt84.2%

Republican Party

15.8%

High quality (94)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$28.3M

24h Vol$111.2K

KALSHI

$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?

5.0 pt (24h)3mo

$10M

+2.2pt99%

$25M

+3.5pt97%

$50M

+9.5pt96%

+4 more outcomes

CoinRithm reference$10M99%· 0 pt venue spread

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.9M

24h Vol$1.6M

POLYMARKET

Texas Senate winner?

2.0 pt (24h)1y

Ken Paxton

+2.0pt54%

James Talarico

-1.0pt46%

High quality (94)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$10.9M

24h Vol$236.6K

KALSHI

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)3mo

+1.0pt86%

Yes

-1.0pt14%

High quality (89)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$14.5M

24h Vol$108.3K

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

0.3 pt (24h)3mo

Before Jan 20, 2029

+1.0pt21%

Before 2028

-1.0pt12%

Before 2027

-0.3pt5%

+5 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$33.3M

24h Vol$43.8K

KALSHI

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

1mo

Democrats Sweep

-1.0pt51%

R Senate, D

+1.0pt36%

Republicans Sweep

12%

+2 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$11.4M

24h Vol$131.4K

POLYMARKET

Los Angeles Mayor winner?

1.0 pt (24h)8mo

Karen Bass

64%

Nithya Raman

+1.0pt36%

High quality (93)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$30.9M

24h Vol$41.9K

KALSHI

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

3mo

December 31

September 30

-0.1pt1%

April 30

+3 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$66.7M

24h Vol$16.1K

POLYMARKET

Which party will win the House in 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)1mo

Democratic Party

+1.0pt86.3%

Republican Party

13.7%

High quality (92)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$10.4M

24h Vol$113.2K

POLYMARKET

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

3mo

93.1%

Yes

6.9%

High quality (88)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$25.7M

24h Vol$33.5K

POLYMARKET

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?

6.0 pt (24h)6mo

March 31, 2027

+2.0pt47.9%

December

-6.0pt30.8%

October

-2.0pt15.4%

+9 more outcomes

High quality (78)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$11M

24h Vol$80.5K

POLYMARKET

California Governor winner? (Person)

0.9 pt (24h)1y

Xavier Becerra

-0.8pt96%

Steve Hilton

+0.9pt4%

High quality (94)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$13.6M

24h Vol$41.9K

KALSHI

Which states will redistrict before the midterms?

1.0 pt (24h)1mo

California

+1.4pt98%

North Carolina

98%

Texas

98%

+22 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$2.3M

24h Vol$129.1K

KALSHI

Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?

1.5 pt (24h)1mo

Helena Foulkes

-0.5pt98%

Dan McKee

+1.5pt2%

Gregory Stevens

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$776.2K

24h Vol$405.6K

KALSHI

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?

4.5 pt (24h)9mo

December 31,

+0.5pt69%

October 31,

+3.0pt67%

November 30,

-0.5pt67%

+15 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$7.5M

24h Vol$34K

POLYMARKET

Trump out as President before 2027?

3mo

94.1%

Yes

5.9%

CoinRithm referenceNo94%· 1 pt venue spread

High quality (86)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$11.4M

24h Vol$21K

POLYMARKET

Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?

2.0 pt (24h)2y

Anna Kelly

20%

Scott Jennings

+1.0pt18.2%

Maria Bartiromo

-2.0pt10%

+41 more outcomes

High quality (87)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$4.5M

24h Vol$47.7K

KALSHI

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

0.5 pt (24h)3mo

+0.5pt94%

Yes

-0.5pt6%

High quality (80)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$10.6M

24h Vol$17.4K

POLYMARKET

Will the SAVE Act become law?

0.3 pt (24h)3mo

96%

Yes

-0.3pt4%

High quality (92)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$13.2M

24h Vol$13.7K

KALSHI

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

0.1 pt (24h)30d

Yulia Navalnaya

UNRWA

-1.4pt6%

International Court of Justice

-0.2pt6%

+17 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$23.8M

24h Vol$6K

POLYMARKET

Maine Senate winner?

1.0 pt (24h)1y

Troy Jackson

67.3%

Susan Collins

+1.0pt32.7%

High quality (92)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$4.7M

24h Vol$25.4K

KALSHI

NATO x Russia military clash by which date?

1.0 pt (24h)3mo

December 31

+1.0pt23%

October 31

10%

December 31, 2025

-0.1pt0%

+3 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$6.7M

24h Vol$15.6K

POLYMARKET

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?

2.5 pt (24h)1mo

October 31

+6.0pt43.2%

September 30

+2.5pt26.3%

September 21

18.6%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (70)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.7M

24h Vol$67.3K

POLYMARKET

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

3.0 pt (24h)3mo

Karoline Leavitt

100%

Todd Blanche

98%

Howard Lutnick

+3.0pt29%

+29 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$5.4M

24h Vol$19K

KALSHI

2028 Democratic VP nominee

Elissa Slotkin

-4.7pt7.8%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

-0.3pt6.9%

Pete Buttigieg

-0.4pt6.9%

+42 more outcomes

Medium quality (68)Spread unknownHigh liquidity

Total Vol$2.9M

24h Vol$36.5K

KALSHI

Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

4mo

Republican Party

53%

Democratic Party

47%

High quality (91)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$8M

24h Vol$12.1K

KALSHI

New York Governor winner?

1.5 pt (24h)1y

Kathy Hochul

-1.0pt91.1%

Bruce Blakeman

+1.5pt8.9%

High quality (90)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.3M

24h Vol$76.9K

KALSHI

Iowa Senate winner?

1.0 pt (24h)1y

Ashley Hinson

-1.0pt64%

Josh Turek

36%

High quality (91)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$2.2M

24h Vol$42.4K

KALSHI

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

1mo

Democratic Party

52%

Republican Party

48%

CoinRithm referenceDemocratic Party53%· 1 pt venue spread

High quality (86)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$4.2M

24h Vol$19.1K

POLYMARKET

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?

0.3 pt (24h)1mo

93%

Yes

+0.3pt7%

High quality (91)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$3.1M

24h Vol$25.3K

KALSHI

Michigan Senate winner?

1.0 pt (24h)1y

Abdul El-Sayed

-2.0pt62%

Mike Rogers

+1.0pt38%

High quality (89)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$3.2M

24h Vol$24.6K

KALSHI

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?

0.5 pt (24h)21d

No Meeting by September 30

+0.5pt92%

Switzerland

+0.1pt3%

Pakistan

+0.1pt3%

+16 more outcomes

High quality (88)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$5.6M

24h Vol$9.7K

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

0.4 pt (24h)1mo

No change

66.7%

25 bps increase

30.4%

25 bps decrease

-0.4pt2%

+2 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceNo change68%· 1 pt venue spread

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.4M

24h Vol$43.3K

POLYMARKET

How many House seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

4mo

Below 193

20.4%

203-207

-1.0pt14.8%

198-202

13%

+8 more outcomes

High quality (86)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$2.7M

24h Vol$19K

KALSHI

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by which date?

8.5 pt (24h)3mo

December 31

+0.5pt35%

September 30

+8.5pt21%

July 31

-0.6pt0%

+8 more outcomes

Medium quality (67)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$6.4M

24h Vol$7.4K

POLYMARKET

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?

1.0 pt (24h)3mo

December 31

-1.0pt13%

October 31

+1.0pt7%

May 31

+1 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$1.9M

24h Vol$23.6K

POLYMARKET

Nebraska Senate winner?

3.0 pt (24h)1y

Pete Ricketts

+3.0pt74%

Dan Osborn

-3.0pt26%

Cindy Burbank

-0.1pt0%

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$793.4K

24h Vol$49.8K

KALSHI

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

0.9 pt (24h)3mo

No meeting before 2027

+0.5pt91.2%

Qatar / UAE

+0.9pt2%

Switzerland

-1.1pt2%

+11 more outcomes

High quality (87)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$3.3M

24h Vol$10.2K

POLYMARKET

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