KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before January 20, 2029 · —
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Stored price
Before January 20, 2029 25.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Before January 20, 2029 25.5%Market quality
81 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.5K
Open interest
$3.1M
High open interestBid / Ask
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Before January 20, 2029Spread
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Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before January 20, 2029
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Claudia Sheinbaum announces departure as President of Mexico?
KalshiNarendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?
KalshiLaurent Nuñez announces departure as Interior Minister of France?
KalshiJeanine Pirro announces departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney?
KalshiWill Javier Milei finish his first term as the president of Argentina?
Manifold MarketsWill Javier Milei be reelected for a second term as the President of Argentina?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCBloomberg NewsNBC
- An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
Rules for each outcome
- Before January 20, 2029
- If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2028
- If Donald Trump leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
