KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic Party 64.4%+1.0pt
Democratic Party 64.4%+1.0ptMarket quality
94 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$80.7K
Open interest
$7M
High open interestBid / Ask
35.0% / 36.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Nov 6, 24, 3:00 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 1h (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
2028 Senate winner
KalshiWhich Party will win the 2026 Senate Election in Minnesota
Manifold MarketsWhich Party will win the 2026 Senate Election in Michigan
Manifold MarketsWhich Party will win the 2026 Senate Election in Virginia?
Manifold MarketsWhich Party will win the 2026 Senate Election in Nebraska?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?
LimitlessRules
If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Library of Congress
- This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. Senate. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027.
Rules for each outcome
- Democratic Party
- If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Republican Party
- If the Republican Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Democratic Party is 66%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Democratic Party 66% · 3 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Limitless — Which party will win the Senate in 2026? · Democratic Party 66%
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will the Republican Party win a US Senate Majority in the 2026 general election? · No 66%
- Also available on Polymarket — Which party will win the Senate in 2026? · Democratic Party 65%
