LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic Party 64.5%
Democratic Party 64.5%Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 4, 26, 1:37 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which Party will win the 2026 Senate Election in Virginia?
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Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the U.S. Senate?
KalshiBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
LimitlessRules
the named outcome · the named outcome.
Additional context — Updated Oct 2, 2026
This market's rules have been updated for clarity.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats.
- If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency.
- If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included.
- Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
- Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
- If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for Democratic Party is 65%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Democratic Party 65% · 3 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on ForecastEx — Will the Republican Party win a US Senate Majority in the 2026 general election? · No 64%
- Also available on Kalshi — Which party will win the U.S. Senate? · Democratic Party 64%
- Also available on Polymarket — Which party will win the Senate in 2026? · Democratic Party 64%
