5,995 markets tracked all-time for 2026 US Midterms, settled ones included. A market can appear under several topics.
Open Markets
5,887
Total Volume
$319,898,596
24h Volume
$8,999,876
Liquidity + open interest
$260,112,708
Fairshake plans $6m push for six US House candidatesCrypto News
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Democrats sweep-3.0pt60.8%D-House, R-Senate28.4%Republicans sweep+0.7pt9.8%+1 more outcomes
KALSHI
Democrats Sweep-1.0pt62.8%R Senate, D27.4%Republicans Sweep+1.0pt8.8%+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKET
James Talarico-2.0pt65%Ken Paxton+1.0pt35%KALSHI
Democratic Party-2.0pt90.1%
Republican Party+2.0pt9.9%POLYMARKET
Troy Jackson-3.0pt55.6%Susan Collins44.4%KALSHI
Xavier Becerra-0.1pt96%Steve Hilton-0.2pt4%KALSHI
Xavier Becerra+0.1pt97%
Steve Hilton-0.3pt3%
Alex Padilla0%+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKET
Sherrod Brown62.4%Jon Husted37.6%KALSHI
Abdul El-Sayed-2.0pt68.3%Mike Rogers+3.0pt31.7%KALSHI
Above 52-3.0pt33.3%5218.1%5113.3%+7 more outcomes
KALSHI
James Talarico (D)+1.0pt65.7%
Ken Paxton (R)+1.0pt34.3%POLYMARKET
Roger Marshall63.4%Adam Hamilton36.6%KALSHI
Democratic Party-1.0pt64%Republican Party36%POLYMARKET
Kathy Hochul+0.2pt95%Bruce Blakeman-0.2pt5%KALSHI
230-233-1.0pt15.4%234-23712.7%238-24111.8%+9 more outcomes
KALSHI
Byron Donalds+1.0pt77.2%David Jolly-1.0pt22.8%KALSHI
Greg Abbott+1.0pt73.5%Gina Hinojosa26.5%KALSHI
Darline Graham86.1%Annie Andrews13.9%KALSHI
Democrats, 8 to 10%-1.0pt25.2%Democrats, 10 to 12%20.7%Democrats, 6 to 8%+2.0pt18%+7 more outcomes
KALSHI
Ashley Hinson+2.0pt56%Josh Turek-1.0pt44%KALSHI
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)
Rob Sand87.1%Zach Lahn12.9%KALSHI
Roy Cooper-0.3pt97%Michael Whatley-0.3pt3%KALSHI
Jon Ossoff-0.9pt95%Mike Collins+1.2pt5%KALSHI
Abdul El-Sayed-1.0pt67.3%Mike Rogers+2.0pt30.8%Mallory McMorrow1%+1 more outcomes
KALSHI
Democratic party75.3%Republican party+1.0pt24.8%KALSHI
Maura Healey-0.9pt94.1%Mike Minogue+1.5pt5.9%KALSHI
Chris Pappas+1.0pt89.1%John E. Sununu10.9%KALSHI
Peggy Flanagan85.9%Michele Tafoya-1.0pt14.1%KALSHI
James Talarico and Troy Jackson+3.0pt47.6%Ken Paxton and Susan Collins-3.0pt24.8%James Talarico and Susan Collins+1.0pt19.1%+3 more outcomes
KALSHI
Amy Acton+2.0pt68.3%Vivek Ramaswamy-3.0pt31.7%KALSHI
Below 19327.5%198-202+1.0pt16.5%203-207-1.0pt13.8%+8 more outcomes
KALSHI
Abdul El-Sayed (D)-1.0pt70.6%
Mike Rogers (R)+2.0pt29.4%POLYMARKET
Sherrod Brown (D)61.4%
Jon Husted (R)38.6%POLYMARKET
Mary Peltola73.3%
Sen. Dan Sullivan-1.0pt26.7%
Ann Diener0%+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKET
Aaron Ford-3.0pt51.5%Joe Lombardo+2.0pt48.5%KALSHI
Ashley Hinson (R)+1.0pt55.5%
Josh Turek (D)44.5%POLYMARKET
Rick Jackson+3.0pt55.5%Keisha Lance Bottoms-1.0pt44.5%KALSHI
Pete Ricketts+2.0pt71.8%Dan Osborn27.2%Cindy Burbank1%KALSHI
Ashley Moody+0.1pt91%Angie Nixon+0.1pt9%KALSHIROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)
≤4737.5%4817.3%49-0.5pt12.5%+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKET
Darline Graham Nordone (R)+1.0pt84.2%
Annie Andrews (D)-1.0pt15.8%POLYMARKET
Josh Shapiro-0.8pt97%Stacy Garrity+0.6pt3%KALSHI
Bobby Pulido-1.0pt82%Monica De La Cruz+1.0pt18%KALSHI
Xavier Becerra-0.6pt96%Steve Hilton+0.4pt4%KALSHIROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)
Troy Jackson (D)57%
Susan Collins (R)43%POLYMARKETSelected open markets with a clear leader. Each line shows one venue's market-implied probability, not a combined forecast or tradable quote. Data timestamps may differ from venue quote or last trade times.
39 covered Kalshi US Senate winner markets, closest race first. Figures are each market's normalized market-implied probabilities, not forecasts or tradable quotes. All times refer to recorded market data and may differ from venue quote or last trade times. Coverage is the markets tagged to this topic so far, not necessarily every race. Two markets for one state can settle on different conditions (a party being sworn in, or a named person winning), so check each market's rules. The Polymarket column shows Polymarket's normalized market-implied probability for the same candidate, from its race-winner market for that state. It is not averaged with Kalshi, and the two markets can settle on different rules.
| Market | Leader | Runner-up | Gap | Polymarket, same candidate | Total volume | Data as of (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine Senate winner? (Person) | Troy Jackson 55% | Susan Collins 45% | 10.0 pts | Troy Jackson (D) 57% | $2.8M | |
| Maine Senate winner? | Troy Jackson 55.6% | Susan Collins 44.4% | 11.2 pts | Troy Jackson (D) 57% | $8.2M | |
| Iowa Senate winner? | Ashley Hinson 56% | Josh Turek 44% | 12.0 pts | Ashley Hinson (R) 55.5% | $4.6M | |
| Iowa Senate winner? (Person) | Ashley Hinson 56.3% | Josh Turek 43.7% |
| 12.6 pts |
| Ashley Hinson (R) 55.5% |
| $38.5K |
| Ohio Senate winner? | Sherrod Brown 62.4% | Jon Husted 37.6% | 24.8 pts | Sherrod Brown (D) 61.4% | $6.2M |
|---|
| Kansas Senate winner? | Roger Marshall 63.4% | Adam Hamilton 36.6% | 26.8 pts | Roger Marshall (R) 63% | $3M |
|---|
| Texas Senate winner? | James Talarico 65% | Ken Paxton 35% | 30.0 pts | James Talarico (D) 65.7% | $20.4M |
|---|
| Michigan Senate winner? (Person) | Abdul El-Sayed 67.3% | Mike Rogers 30.8% | 36.5 pts | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70.6% | $2.2M |
|---|
| Michigan Senate winner? | Abdul El-Sayed 68.3% | Mike Rogers 31.7% | 36.6 pts | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70.6% | $5.6M |
|---|
| Nebraska Senate winner? | Pete Ricketts 71.8% | Dan Osborn 27.2% | 44.6 pts | Pete Ricketts (R) 72% | $2.3M |
|---|
| Alaska Senate winner? (Person) | Mary Peltola 73.8% | Dan Sullivan 23.3% | 50.5 pts | Mary Peltola 73.3% | $394.9K |
|---|
| Alaska Senate winner? | Democratic party 75.3% | Republican party 24.8% | 50.5 pts | No current Polymarket quote | $2.5M |
|---|
| Minnesota Senate winner? | Peggy Flanagan 85.9% | Michele Tafoya 14.1% | 71.8 pts | Peggy Flanagan (D) 86.1% | $1.6M |
|---|
| South Carolina Senate winner? | Darline Graham 86.1% | Annie Andrews 13.9% | 72.2 pts | No current Polymarket quote | $2.4M |
|---|
| New Hampshire Senate winner? | Chris Pappas 89.1% | John E. Sununu 10.9% | 78.2 pts | Chris Pappas (D) 89% | $1.9M |
|---|
| Florida Senate winner? | Ashley Moody 91% | Angie Nixon 9% | 82.0 pts | Ashley Moody (R) 89.2% | $1.3M |
|---|
| Mississippi Senate winner? | Cindy Hyde-Smith 91% | Scott Colom 9% | 82.0 pts | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 91.2% | $278.9K |
|---|
| Idaho Senate winner? | Jim Risch 92% | Todd Achilles 8% | 84.0 pts | Jim Risch (R) 93% | $304.2K |
|---|
| South Dakota Senate winner? | Mike Rounds 92.1% | Brian Bengs 7.9% | 84.2 pts | Mike Rounds (R) 92% | $233.1K |
|---|
| Arkansas Senate winner? | Tom Cotton 93.1% | Hallie Shoffner 6.9% | 86.2 pts | Tom Cotton (R) 94% | $202.3K |
|---|
| Tennessee Senate winner? | Bill Hagerty 93.1% | Marquita Bradshaw 6.9% | 86.2 pts | Bill Hagerty (R) 95% | $184.4K |
|---|
| Montana Senate winner? | Kurt Alme 93.1% | Seth Bodnar 5.9% | 87.2 pts | Kurt Alme (R) 92% | $672.3K |
|---|
| Georgia Senate winner? | Jon Ossoff 95% | Mike Collins 5% | 90.0 pts | Jon Ossoff (D) 97% | $1.6M |
|---|
| Louisiana Senate winner? | Julia Letlow 96% | Jamie Davis 4% | 92.0 pts | No current Polymarket quote | $92.3K |
|---|
| Kentucky Senate winner? | Andy Barr 96% | Charles Booker 4% | 92.0 pts | Andy Barr (R) 97% | $184.3K |
|---|
| New Jersey Senate winner? | Cory Booker 96% | Justin Murphy 4% | 92.0 pts | Cory Booker (D) 98% | $49.5K |
|---|
| Oklahoma Senate winner? | Kevin Hern 97% | N’Kiyla Thomas 3% | 94.0 pts | No current Polymarket quote | $41.2K |
|---|
| North Carolina Senate winner? | Roy Cooper 97% | Michael Whatley 3% | 94.0 pts | No current Polymarket quote | $2.8M |
|---|
| Massachusetts Senate winner? | Ed Markey 97% | John Deaton 3% | 94.0 pts | No current Polymarket quote | $28.3K |
|---|
| Wyoming Senate winner? | Harriet Hageman 97% | James Byrd 3% | 94.0 pts | Harriet Hageman (R) 98% | $24.5K |
|---|
| New Mexico Senate winner? | Ben Ray Luján 98% | Larry E. Marker 2% | 96.0 pts | No current Polymarket quote | $44.2K |
|---|
| Oregon Senate winner? | Jeff Merkley 98% | David Brock Smith 2% | 96.0 pts | No current Polymarket quote | $12.3K |
|---|
| Colorado Senate winner? | John Hickenlooper 99% | Mark Baisley 1% | 98.0 pts | No current Polymarket quote | $31.4K |
|---|
| Rhode Island Senate winner? | Jack Reed 99% | Raymond McKay 1% | 98.0 pts | No current Polymarket quote | $23.7K |
|---|
| Alabama Senate winner? | No current quote | $11.8K | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delaware Senate winner? | No current quote | $26.9K | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois Senate winner? | No current quote | $18.6K | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Senate winner? | No current quote | $31.5K | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia Senate winner? | No current quote | $25.3K | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
