2026 US Midterms

Key markets

• Democrats sweep leads “2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?” at 61.6% on Kalshi. $22.6M total volume, data as of Sep 28, 2026, 5:27 AM UTC
• James Talarico leads “Texas Senate winner?” at 59.4% on Kalshi. $15.1M total volume, data as of Sep 28, 2026, 5:23 AM UTC
• Democrats Sweep leads “Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms” at 60.4% on Polymarket. $14.4M total volume, data as of Sep 28, 2026, 5:23 AM UTC

Selected open markets with a clear leader. Each line shows one venue's market-implied probability, not a combined forecast or tradable quote. Data timestamps may differ from venue quote or last trade times.

2026 Senate race board

39 covered Kalshi US Senate winner markets, closest race first. Figures are each market's normalized market-implied probabilities, not forecasts or tradable quotes. All times refer to recorded market data and may differ from venue quote or last trade times. Coverage is the markets tagged to this topic so far, not necessarily every race. Two markets for one state can settle on different conditions (a party being sworn in, or a named person winning), so check each market's rules. The Polymarket column shows Polymarket's normalized market-implied probability for the same candidate, from its race-winner market for that state. It is not averaged with Kalshi, and the two markets can settle on different rules.