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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Fed

Fed

259 related markets tracked across sources for Fed.

Open Markets

114

Total Volume

$466,384,360

24h Volume

$51,847,463

Total Liquidity

$48,843,233

Open Markets

114

Total Volume

$466,384,360

24h Volume

$51,847,463

Total Liquidity

$48,843,233

Related Topics

InflationAICentral BanksMacro & Economy

Topics

Crypto

Bitcoin575

Politics

Middle East374Geopolitics264Politics4135Election3212US Politics2338Latin America477

Macro

Fed114Commodities139Corporate Actions216

Sports

Sports6315Soccer3154Baseball690Esports430FIFA World Cup1009Tennis673Basketball418American Football303Motorsport92

Tech

Tech625

Science

Space134

Theme

Exchange551Stablecoin422

Entity

Binance410

Related Crypto Assets

EthereumETHSolanaSOLBitcoinBTCBitcoinBTCBNBBNB
EthereumETHSolanaSOLBitcoinBTCBitcoinBTCBNBBNB

Related News

Bitcoin traders brace for Federal Reserve decision as hold odds hit 98%Crypto NewsWall Street abandons rate-cut hopes ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMCCrypto NewsMay 2026 US Jobs Report: Upward Revisions Reshape Crypto Fed Rate Cut OutlookBlockchain ReporterBitcoin price falls below $60K as hot U.S. jobs report crushes rate cut hopesCrypto NewsBNP Paribas warns inflation threat could trigger three Fed hikesCrypto NewsThe Fed has a new chair. What it means for cryptoCrypto News

Related Guides

  • How Prediction Market Probabilities Work (2026): Prices, Odds, and What They Really Mean
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  • Common Prediction Market Mistakes (2026): What Beginners Get Wrong

Related Crypto Assets

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EthereumETHSolanaSOLBitcoinBTCBitcoinBTCBNBBNB

Related Guides

  • How Prediction Market Probabilities Work (2026): Prices, Odds, and What They Really Mean
  • Prediction Market Fees Comparison (2026): Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, PredictIt, and More
  • Common Prediction Market Mistakes (2026): What Beginners Get Wrong
Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

5d
No change
No change
+0.3%99%
25 bps decrease
25 bps decrease
-0.1%0%
25 bps increase
25 bps increase
-0.3%0%

+2 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$80M
24h Vol$4M
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

6mo
0 (0
0 (0
-1.1%79%
1 (25
1 (25
+1.0%14%
2 (50
2 (50
3%

+10 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$33.6M
24h Vol$184.5K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

1mo
No change
No change
93%
25 bps increase
25 bps increase
-0.2%6%
25 bps decrease
25 bps decrease
-0.1%2%

+2 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$9.2M
24h Vol$274.8K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

3.0%6mo
Yes
Yes
-0.0%52%
No
No
+0.0%49%
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$78.4K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

0.1%5d
Pause–Pause–Pause
Pause–Pause–Pause
99%
Other
Other
+0.3%1%
Pause–Pause–Cut
Pause–Pause–Cut
-0.1%1%

+6 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$70.2K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

0.1%6mo
4.0%
4.0%
-0.4%34%
3.75%
3.75%
+3.0%32%
4.25%
4.25%
-0.7%16%

+12 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$6.6M
24h Vol$5.1K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

0.1%5d
December Meeting
December Meeting
+0.5%24%
October Meeting
October Meeting
-0.3%14%
September Meeting
September Meeting
+2.3%10%

+5 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.2M
24h Vol$12.8K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed Decision in September?

Fed Decision in September?

1.0%3mo
No change
No change
+1.0%75%
25 bps increase
25 bps increase
-1.5%20%
25 bps decrease
25 bps decrease
3%

+2 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$235.6K
24h Vol$34.1K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed decision in Jun 2026?

Fed decision in Jun 2026?

6d
Fed maintains rate
Fed maintains rate
98%
Cut 25bps
Cut 25bps
-1.0%1%
Hike 25bps
Hike 25bps
1%

+2 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$205K
24h Vol$13.5K
KalshiKALSHI
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

0.3%
Yes
Yes
0%
No
No
100%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$425.9K
24h Vol$102.4K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Bank of Japan Decision in June?

Bank of Japan Decision in June?

0.2%4d
25
25
-0.6%97%
No change
No change
+0.7%2%
50+
50+
+0.2%1%

+1 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$462.2K
24h Vol$54.2K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

0.2%6mo
↓ 3.5%
↓ 3.5%
+0.5%100%
↓ 3.25%
↓ 3.25%
-1.5%21%
↑ 4.25%
↑ 4.25%
-2.2%19%

+18 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.5M
24h Vol$3.5K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
ECB rate hike in 2026?

ECB rate hike in 2026?

0.3%6mo
Yes
Yes
100%
No
No
0%
79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$136.1K
24h Vol$1.6K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Nothing Ever Happens: June

Nothing Ever Happens: June

19d
Something
Something
11%
Nothing
Nothing
89%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$16.8K
24h Vol$1.3K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Bank of Canada Decision in July?

Bank of Canada Decision in July?

2.0%1mo
No Change
No Change
+2.0%94%
25 bps increase
25 bps increase
-1.8%4%
25 bps decrease
25 bps decrease
-0.3%3%

+2 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$10.8K
24h Vol$844.3
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?

What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?

1.5%7d
Rate / Cut
Rate / Cut
+5.5%94%
Balance Sheet
Balance Sheet
+4.0%75%
Artificial Intelligence / AI
Artificial Intelligence / AI
+0.5%75%

+24 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$5K
24h Vol$2.4K
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed funds rate after Jun 2026 meeting?

Fed funds rate after Jun 2026 meeting?

6d
Above 3.75%
Above 3.75%
1%
Above 3.50%
Above 3.50%
+1.0%99%
Above 4.00%
Above 4.00%
1%

+8 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$22.6K
24h Vol$830.4
KalshiKALSHI
Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

6.2%6mo
Exactly 0 cuts
Exactly 0 cuts
-6.2%72%
Exactly 2 cuts
Exactly 2 cuts
+4.6%8%
Exactly 1 cut
Exactly 1 cut
-0.5%18%

+18 more outcomes

83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$41.6K
24h Vol$193.8
KalshiKALSHI
How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

2.0%5d
0
0
-2.0%73%
1
1
+1.0%14%
2
2
8%

+2 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$30.7K
24h Vol$240.4
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed decision in Jul 2026?

Fed decision in Jul 2026?

1.0%1mo
Fed maintains rate
Fed maintains rate
+1.0%93%
Hike 25bps
Hike 25bps
7%
Hike >25bps
Hike >25bps
1%

+2 more outcomes

79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$6.5K
24h Vol$540.4
KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

ECB rate hike in 2026?

6mo
Manifold Markets
Yes
97.9%
Manifold Markets
No
2.1%
Community forecast15 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$9.5K
24h Vol$1.2K
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?

4y
Manifold Markets
Less than 40%
2.1%
Manifold Markets
40% to 50%
2.5%
Manifold Markets
50% to 60%
9.2%

+4 more outcomes

Community forecast4 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$1.2K
24h Vol$1.2K
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Next Fed rate hike?

Next Fed rate hike?

8.0%6mo
Before 2027
Before 2027
-8.0%47%
Before July 2026
Before July 2026
2%
Before July 2027
Before July 2027
+1.0%68%

+1 more outcomes

60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$15.7K
24h Vol$218.9
KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

6mo
Manifold Markets
Yes
40%
Manifold Markets
No
60%
Community forecast36 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$7.1K
24h Vol$267.5
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?

Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?

35.0%6mo
$7.000+
$7.000+
-0.5%77%
$8.000+
$8.000+
-7.0%54%
$9.000+
$9.000+
-35.0%29%

+1 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$20.1K
24h Vol$199.9
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed rate hike by...?

Fed rate hike by...?

4mo
October Meeting
October Meeting
+4.5%43%
September Meeting
September Meeting
-0.5%25%
July Meeting
July Meeting
+0.5%8%

+2 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$157.5K
24h Vol$3.7
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

4.0%1mo
Pause–Pause–Pause
Pause–Pause–Pause
-4.0%90%
Other
Other
+1.2%5%
Pause–Pause–Cut
Pause–Pause–Cut
+2.2%4%

+6 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$54.3K
24h Vol$64.9
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will the Federal Open Market Committee announce a decrease in the federal funds rate at the June 17, 2026, meeting?

6d
Manifold Markets
Yes
7.5%
Manifold Markets
No
92.5%
Community forecast12 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$2.8K
24h Vol$114.3
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

0.2%18d
Yes
Yes
1%
No
No
99%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$276.3K
24h Vol$18.3
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

6mo
December 31
December 31
40%
May 30
May 30
0%
44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$417.9K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

0.3%6mo
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh
88%
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh
-0.3%8%
Kevin Hassett
Kevin Hassett
-8.4%0%

+6 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$158.8K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

0.1%3mo
Pause–Pause–Pause
Pause–Pause–Pause
71%
Other
Other
-4.0%18%
Pause–Pause–Cut
Pause–Pause–Cut
-10.9%14%

+6 more outcomes

49 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.2K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

0.1%6mo
December 31
December 31
-1.5%22%
June 30
June 30
-0.1%6%
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$16.4K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Bank of Israel Decision in July?

Bank of Israel Decision in July?

2.0%24d
Decrease
Decrease
+2.0%66%
No Change
No Change
+1.0%34%
Increase
Increase
+0.6%2%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$14.5K
24h Vol$11.9
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Bank of Japan Decision in July?

Bank of Japan Decision in July?

0.5%1mo
No change
No change
+0.5%90%
25 bps increase
25 bps increase
-1.5%8%
50+ bps increase
50+ bps increase
+0.2%3%

+2 more outcomes

60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$4K
24h Vol$82
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?

19d
Manifold Markets
Yes
14%
Manifold Markets
No
86%
Community forecast9 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$383.3
24h Vol$300.3
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Fed abolished before 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

6mo
Yes
Yes
5%
No
No
95%
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$4.4K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

0.5%6mo
Yes
Yes
+0.0%9%
No
No
91%
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$105.5K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Bank of Mexico Decision in June

Bank of Mexico Decision in June

0.7%13d
No change
No change
+2.5%92%
Decrease
Decrease
+0.7%7%
Increase
Increase
-0.4%1%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$17.2K
24h Vol$88.3
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

2.0%6mo
Yes
Yes
-0.0%70%
No
No
+0.0%31%
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$35.1K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Fed rate hike in 2026?

6mo
Manifold Markets
Yes
45%
Manifold Markets
No
55%
Community forecast30 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$2K
24h Vol$208.8
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
ECB rate cut in 2026?

ECB rate cut in 2026?

6mo
Yes
Yes
14%
No
No
87%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$28.2K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

1.0%6mo
Tim Walz
Tim Walz
+1.0%27%
Ilhan Omar
Ilhan Omar
-3.0%37%
Hunter Biden
Hunter Biden
-5.1%10%

+22 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$8.3K
24h Vol$41.8
KalshiKALSHI
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

4.0%5mo
Before Dec 1, 2026
Before Dec 1, 2026
-4.0%31%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Before Aug 1, 2026
+0.1%10%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Before Sep 1, 2026
-4.0%14%

+7 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$8.1K
24h Vol$16.8
KalshiKALSHI
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

1.5%6mo
Yes
Yes
+0.0%47%
No
No
-0.0%53%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$10.7K
24h Vol$4.1
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Fed rate cut before 2027?

Fed rate cut before 2027?

5.1%6mo
Yes
Yes
+5.1%30%
No
No
70%
44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$3.4K
24h Vol$84
KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

Nothing Ever Happens: June (Polymarket)

19d
Manifold Markets
Nothing
81%
Manifold Markets
Something
19%
Community forecast7 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$542.5
24h Vol$157.4
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Bank of Mexico Decision in August?

Bank of Mexico Decision in August?

0.1%1mo
No change
No change
+0.5%77%
25 bps increase
25 bps increase
-25.6%21%
25 bps decrease
25 bps decrease
11%

+2 more outcomes

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$7.2K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET