Fed

Fed Decision in July?

No change

+5.4%79%

25 bps increase

-5.9%20%

50+ bps increase

-0.1%1%

+2 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceNo change79%· ±0 pts

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$93.4M

24h Vol$1.9M

POLYMARKET

Fed decision in Jul 2026?

3.0%3d

Fed maintains rate

+3.0%78%

Hike 25bps

-2.0%22%

Cut 25bps

+2 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceNo change79%· ±0 pts

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$37M

24h Vol$381.1K

KALSHI

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

5mo

0 (0

+0.4%85%

1 (25

-1.0%9%

2 (50

+0.1%3%

+10 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$44.8M

24h Vol$59.1K

POLYMARKET

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.1%5mo

Exactly 0 cuts

-0.8%82%

Exactly 1 cut

-0.1%10%

Exactly 2 cuts

-1.1%2%

+18 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$6.6M

24h Vol$34.7K

KALSHI

Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?

Above 3.50%

99%

Above 2.75%

99%

Above 3.00%

99%

+8 more outcomes

77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$2.9M

24h Vol$33.5K

KALSHI

Fed Decision in September?

1mo

25 bps increase

54%

No change

41%

25 bps decrease

+0.3%4%

+2 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$4.4M

24h Vol$40.5K

POLYMARKET

Fed rate hike in 2026?

4mo

Yes

72%

28%

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$4.7M

24h Vol$58.3K

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

5mo

SpaceX

86%

xAI

26%

Anthropic

14%

+71 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$4.9M

24h Vol$10.2K

POLYMARKET

Next Fed rate hike?

3.0%5mo

Before July 2027

-3.0%79%

Before 2028

-6.0%78%

Before 2027

-3.0%67%

+1 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$2.8M

24h Vol$11.4K

KALSHI

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

0.9%5mo

Raúl Castro

99%

John Brennan

42%

Letitia James

34%

+38 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.1M

24h Vol$8.4K

KALSHI

Fed rate hike by which date?

6.0%3mo

October Meeting

69%

September Meeting

61%

July Meeting

-6.0%20%

+2 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.5M

24h Vol$8.6K

POLYMARKET

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

2.0%5mo

Before Jan 31, 2028

-1.0%80%

Before Jun 1, 2027

-3.0%65%

Before Jan 1, 2027

-2.0%26%

+7 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$926K

24h Vol$5.2K

KALSHI

Bank of Japan Decision in July?

0.9%4d

No change

+0.9%99%

25 bps increase

-0.8%2%

50+ bps decrease

+2 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$315.2K

24h Vol$20.6K

POLYMARKET

What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference?

3.0%4d

Balance Sheet

83%

Central Bank

82%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

+1.0%77%

+40 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceBalance Sheet83%· ±2 pts

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$142K

24h Vol$35.7K

KALSHI

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

0.1%4mo

4.0%

+2.5%29%

3.75%

-4.1%27%

4.25%

+5.4%24%

+12 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$6.7M

24h Vol$3.9K

POLYMARKET

What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?

2.0%3d

Balance Sheet

+0.5%85%

Central Bank

82%

Productivity

78%

+30 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceBalance Sheet83%· ±2 pts

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$63.2K

24h Vol$10.1K

POLYMARKET

Ecusfed 26 SEP

1mo

H 25

45%

H 0

42%

C 25

+2 more outcomes

77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$25.9K

24h Vol$25.9K

ROTHERA

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

5.7%2d

Pause–Pause–Pause

+5.7%78%

Other

-5.5%21%

Pause–Pause–Cut

-0.1%1%

+6 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$885.8K

24h Vol$9.4K

POLYMARKET

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

5mo

↓ 3.5%

+0.5%100%

↑ 4.25%

+3.3%38%

↑ 4.5%

+3.3%17%

+18 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.7M

24h Vol$1.1K

POLYMARKET

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

3mo

Other

72%

Pause–Pause–Pause

28%

Pause–Pause–Cut

-0.1%1%

+6 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$529.6K

24h Vol$2.2K

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

1.0%3mo

No change

+1.0%55%

25 bps increase

-0.5%30%

25 bps decrease

-1.0%9%

+2 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$331.9K

24h Vol$2K

POLYMARKET

Fed decision in Sep 2026?

1mo

Hike 25bps

49%

Fed maintains rate

46%

Cut 25bps

+2 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$352.1K

24h Vol$1.8K

KALSHI

How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?

+5.0%30%

26%

-2.0%24%

+2 more outcomes

CoinRithm reference230%· ±4 pts

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$86K

24h Vol$6.4K

KALSHI

July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

2.0%3d

Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: >0

+5.0%65%

Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0

-2.0%19%

Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0

+3 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$41.4K

24h Vol$7.2K

KALSHI

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

3.0%4mo

Above 3.00%

+3.0%97%

Above 3.25%

+1.0%96%

Above 2.75%

96%

+8 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$89.3K

24h Vol$1.3K

KALSHI

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0.9%5mo

2 (50

-0.5%33%

0 (0

+0.5%30%

1 (25

30%

+3 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$55.8K

24h Vol$1K

POLYMARKET

How many dissent at the July Fed meeting?

0.5%3d

-0.5%27%

-0.5%26%

26%

+2 more outcomes

CoinRithm reference230%· ±4 pts

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$48.6K

24h Vol$1.5K

POLYMARKET

Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

3.0%11mo

Before Jan 1, 2028

10%

Before Jul 1, 2027

+3.0%9%

Before Jan 1, 2027

+1 more outcomes

61 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$28.7K

24h Vol$7.7K

KALSHI

Bank of Canada Decision in September?

7.5%1mo

No Change

+7.5%90%

25 bps increase

-4.1%9%

50+ bps increase

+1.0%2%

+2 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$13.2K

24h Vol$3.9K

POLYMARKET

Bank of Israel decision in August?

5.0%1mo

No Change

+5.0%74%

25 bps cut

-1.5%26%

50+ bps cut

-1.0%3%

+2 more outcomes

77 • High qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$12.9K

24h Vol$5.1K

POLYMARKET

Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date?

2.0%5mo

June 30, 2027

December 31, 2026

-2.0%5%

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$5.1K

24h Vol$2.9K

POLYMARKET

Nothing Ever Happens: July

2.6%5d

Nothing

+0.0%78%

Something

-0.0%22%

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$66.4K

24h Vol$1.7K

POLYMARKET

Fed rate cut before 2027?

0.3%5mo

82%

Yes

-0.3%18%

83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$821.6K

24h Vol$184.7

KALSHI

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?

1.0%2y

94%

Yes

+1.0%6%

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$126K

24h Vol$443.7

KALSHI

Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?

1.0%1mo

Above 2.75%

99%

Above 3.25%

99%

Above 3.00%

98%

+8 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$110.8K

24h Vol$338.1

KALSHI

Who will dissent at the July Fed meeting?

7.0%3d

Beth Hammack

+7.0%62%

Lorie Logan

+7.0%61%

Michelle Bowman

+9 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$22.9K

24h Vol$4.9K

KALSHI

Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?

4.0%12d

Above -25,000

96%

Above 0

93%

Above 10,000

-1.0%91%

+10 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$61.2K

24h Vol$583.1

KALSHI

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?

0.1%5mo

Before 2027

+0.1%10%

Before Jun 1, 2026

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$255.3K

24h Vol$170.4

KALSHI

Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?

5mo

Stephen Miran

12%

Michelle Bowman

Lorie Logan

+9 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$229.7K

24h Vol$104

KALSHI

US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?

8.5%4d

5%+

+0.5%95%

6%+

+1.0%95%

7%+

+8.5%71%

+3 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$9.5K

24h Vol$1.2K

POLYMARKET

Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in July 2026?

Yes

77%

23%

68 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidity

Total Vol$400

24h Vol$400

FORECASTEX

Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?

1.0%6mo

Above 0.00%

98%

Above 1.25%

+1.0%96%

Above 0.25%

95%

+15 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$46.5K

24h Vol$410.6

KALSHI

Will the fed funds rate be below 4% at anytime by the end of 2026?

5mo

Yes

99.3%

0.7%

Community forecast34 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Ecusfed 26 DEC

4mo

H 0

58%

C 26

50%

H 25

29%

+2 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.1K

24h Vol$1.1K

ROTHERA

Bank of Mexico Decision in August?

0.2%10d

No change

+0.2%88%

25 bps decrease

+0.8%10%

50+ bps increase

+1.6%2%

+2 more outcomes

83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$79K

24h Vol$115.2

POLYMARKET

Bank of Israel Decision in September?

12.0%1mo

No Change

+12.0%76%

Decrease

-11.5%18%

Increase

-0.4%11%

36 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidity

Total Vol$10.6K

24h Vol$1.6K

POLYMARKET

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date?

1.5%5mo

December 31

-1.5%35%

May 30

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$428.9K

24h Vol$477.8

POLYMARKET

Price of Dozen Eggs in July?

0.5%16d

$2.00–$2.25

81%

$2.25–$2.50

-0.5%12%

$1.75–$2.00

+7 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$15.6K

24h Vol$166

POLYMARKET

Related Crypto Assets

Fed Decision in July?

Fed decision in Jul 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Fed funds rate after Jul 2026 meeting?

Fed Decision in September?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Next Fed rate hike?

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

Fed rate hike by which date?

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

Bank of Japan Decision in July?

What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?

Ecusfed 26 SEP

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Fed Decision in October?

Fed decision in Sep 2026?

How many dissenting votes at the July Fed meeting?

July 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

How many dissent at the July Fed meeting?

Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

Bank of Canada Decision in September?

Bank of Israel decision in August?

Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date?

Nothing Ever Happens: July

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?

Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?

Who will dissent at the July Fed meeting?

Jobs numbers in Jul 2026?

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?

Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?

US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?

Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in July 2026?

Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?

Will the fed funds rate be below 4% at anytime by the end of 2026?

Ecusfed 26 DEC

Bank of Mexico Decision in August?

Bank of Israel Decision in September?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date?

Price of Dozen Eggs in July?