Fed

No change

+2.0%96%

increase

2%

decrease

-3.0%1%

+1 more outcomes

No change

69%

25 bps decrease

21%

25 bps increase

7%

+2 more outcomes

0 (0

-0.1%39%

1 (25

26%

2 (50

+1.0%18%

+10 more outcomes

Kevin Warsh

95%

Judy Shelton

2%

Michelle Bowman

1%

+32 more outcomes

3.75%

+0.1%30%

3.5%

24%

3.25%

-0.5%19%

+12 more outcomes

Above 0.00%

-1.0%87%

Above 0.25%

-5.0%83%

Above 0.50%

-4.0%83%

+15 more outcomes

United Russia (ER)

+0.1%95%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

+0.1%1%

New People (NL)

+0.1%1%

+31 more outcomes

Cut >25bps

10%

Cut 25bps

24%

Fed maintains rate

68%

+2 more outcomes

No change

+1.5%84%

25 bps decrease

-1.5%9%

25 bps increase

+0.4%6%

+2 more outcomes

More than 50,000

84%

More than 100,000

-5.0%50%

More than 150,000

34%

+4 more outcomes

Cina Match O/U 21.5

100%

Cina Match O/U 22.5

100%

Cina Match O/U 23.5

100%

+6 more outcomes

Above 0.00%

-4.0%85%

Above 0.25%

-5.0%85%

Above 0.50%

-5.0%85%

+15 more outcomes

Cut >25bps

9%

Cut 25bps

+5.0%26%

Fed maintains rate

+4.0%62%

+2 more outcomes

Exactly 0

28%

Exactly 1

27%

Exactly 2

28%

+10 more outcomes

Bondioli Set 1 O/U 8.5

100%

Bondioli Match O/U 21.5

75%

Bondioli Match O/U 22.5

51%

+6 more outcomes

Above 0.00%

-76.0%19%

Above 0.25%

-79.0%19%

Above 0.50%

+35.0%54%

+15 more outcomes

Cut >25bps

8%

Cut 25bps

15%

Fed maintains rate

66%

+2 more outcomes

Cut >25bps

10%

Cut 25bps

19%

Fed maintains rate

-4.0%61%

+2 more outcomes

United Russia (ER)

+1.0%71%

New People (NL)

-0.9%22%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

-0.1%6%

+31 more outcomes

Cut >25bps

8%

Cut 25bps

23%

Fed maintains rate

+7.0%67%

+2 more outcomes

SpaceX

+0.5%88%

xAI

26%

OpenAI

5%

+71 more outcomes

Cut >25bps

10%

Cut 25bps

21%

Fed maintains rate

-1.0%59%

+2 more outcomes

Democratic Party

-0.5%85%

Republican Party

+0.5%16%

Other

0%

+6 more outcomes

Cut >25bps

10%

Cut 25bps

19%

Fed maintains rate

+9.0%69%

+2 more outcomes

Cut >25bps

10%

Cut 25bps

24%

Fed maintains rate

58%

+2 more outcomes

Pause–Pause–Pause

+11.0%78%

Pause–Pause–Cut

-3.5%11%

Other

+0.3%10%

+6 more outcomes

Before 2026

2%

Before 2027

9%

Before 2028

16%

+1 more outcomes

December Meeting

63%

October Meeting

47%

September Meeting

-28.0%39%

+5 more outcomes

Republican Party

51%

Democratic Party

50%

Party A

0%

+6 more outcomes

Cut >25bps

10%

Cut 25bps

20%

Fed maintains rate

55%

+2 more outcomes

Gavin Newsom

22%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

10%

Pete Buttigieg

11%

+7 more outcomes

Kevin Warsh

-0.6%95%

Judy Shelton

2%

Rick Rieder

1%

+1 more outcomes

$2.25–2.50

53%

$2.50–2.75

29%

$2.75–3.00

6%

+7 more outcomes

No change

+0.5%58%

Increase

-0.1%42%

50+

0%

+1 more outcomes

Before Jan 19, 2026

2%

Before February 2026

1%

Before March 2026

1%

+3 more outcomes

Elise Stefanik (UN Ambassador)

100%

Elon Musk (DOGE Head)

+76.0%100%

Robert Lighthizer (USTR)

+3.0%9%

+11 more outcomes

↑ 6.30%

-1.5%100%

↑ 6.20%

100%

↓ 6.00%

+27.4%100%

+6 more outcomes

Robin Smith

41%

Larry Householder

24%

Matt Borges

11%

+22 more outcomes

Below 300

11%

Between 300 and 349

10%

Between 350 and 399

15%

+9 more outcomes

Lockheed Martin

-6.5%39%

Boeing

-1.0%38%

Palantir

-0.5%36%

+15 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

Dan Bongino

+15.9%100%

Tulsi Gabbard

+6.0%56%

Kristi Noem

-0.5%55%

+16 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

Richard Branson

-0.5%13%

Steve Bannon

-4.0%12%

Woody Allen

-1.0%12%

+15 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

↓ 3.5%

+0.5%100%

↓ 3.25%

65%

↓ 3.0%

37%

+18 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes

+5 more outcomes