Fed

Fed Decision in September?

1.0 pt (24h)6d

25 bps increase

52.5%

No change

-1.0pt47.5%

50+ bps decrease

+2 more outcomes

CoinRithm reference25 bps increase52%· 2 pt venue spread

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$105.1M

24h Vol$1.6M

POLYMARKET

Fed decision in Sep 2026?

Hike 25bps

+2.0pt53.4%

Fed maintains rate

-2.0pt43.7%

Hike >25bps

+2 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$40.6M

24h Vol$2.5M

KALSHI

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0.4 pt (24h)3mo

0 (0 bps)

+0.3pt93%

1 (25 bps)

-0.4pt5%

2 (50 bps)

+10 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$51.6M

24h Vol$52.1K

POLYMARKET

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.1 pt (24h)3mo

Exactly 0 cuts

-0.8pt90.1%

Exactly 1 cut

+1.1pt8.9%

Exactly 2 cuts

-0.9pt1%

+18 more outcomes

Medium quality (69)Spread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$8.8M

24h Vol$49.4K

KALSHI

Next Fed rate hike?

3mo

Before 2028

+1.0pt85%

Before July 2027

-1.0pt83%

Before 2027

75%

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$3.9M

24h Vol$20.5K

KALSHI

Fed rate hike in 2026?

3mo

Yes

70.3%

29.7%

High quality (82)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$8.8M

24h Vol$8.1K

POLYMARKET

Fed rate decision in September 2026

5.0 pt (24h)9d

Hike 25bps

+5.0pt48.6%

Fed maintains rate

-4.0pt44.9%

Cut 25bps

2.8%

+2 more outcomes

High quality (90)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

24h Vol$123.4K

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

Fed Decision in October?

0.1 pt (24h)1mo

No change

66%

25 bps increase

30.1%

25 bps decrease

-0.1pt2.9%

+2 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceNo change68%· 1 pt venue spread

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.4M

24h Vol$47.4K

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

0.1 pt (24h)3mo

Anthropic

-0.8pt59.2%

SpaceX

38.8%

OpenAI

+0.1pt2%

+9 more outcomes

High quality (87)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$6M

24h Vol$9.3K

POLYMARKET

Fed rate cut before 2027?

2.4 pt (24h)3mo

89%

Yes

+2.4pt11%

High quality (90)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$1.2M

24h Vol$45.7K

KALSHI

Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?

Above 2.75%

99%

Above 3.00%

99%

Above 3.25%

99%

+8 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.7M

24h Vol$26.9K

KALSHI

Fed rate hike by which date?

2.0 pt (24h)1mo

October Meeting

+2.0pt54.2%

September Meeting

+2.0pt45.8%

April Meeting

-0.1pt0%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$2.9M

24h Vol$10.1K

POLYMARKET

Fed rate cut by which date?

4mo

December Meeting

October Meeting

-0.1pt4%

January Meeting

-0.8pt0%

+5 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$3.4M

24h Vol$7K

POLYMARKET

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

1mo

Fed maintains rate

+1.0pt65.7%

Hike 25bps

26.7%

Cut 25bps

-2.0pt3.8%

+2 more outcomes

High quality (83)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$560.4K

24h Vol$11.8K

KALSHI

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

1.3 pt (24h)3mo

Before Jan 31, 2028

+39.0pt67%

Before Jun 1, 2027

45%

Before Jan 1, 2027

+1.3pt9%

+5 more outcomes

Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$720K

24h Vol$8K

KALSHI

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

7.9 pt (24h)3mo

4.5%

+11.2pt100%

4.6%

+4.9pt100%

4.8%

+7.9pt100%

+7 more outcomes

Medium quality (71)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$324.9K

24h Vol$12.4K

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in December?

0.8 pt (24h)3mo

No change

48%

25 bps increase

43.1%

25 bps decrease

-0.8pt5.9%

+2 more outcomes

High quality (81)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$565.4K

24h Vol$5K

POLYMARKET

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

0.1 pt (24h)3mo

+0.1pt94%

Yes

-0.1pt6%

High quality (76)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$208.2K

24h Vol$11K

POLYMARKET

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

3mo

4.0%

-0.5pt41.2%

4.25%

+2.6pt23.5%

3.75%

-0.6pt21.6%

+12 more outcomes

High quality (82)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$6.8M

24h Vol$2.4K

POLYMARKET

What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?

8.0 pt (24h)8d

Central Bank

-1.0pt92%

Good Day

+1.0pt88%

Productivity

88%

+43 more outcomes

Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$88.6K

24h Vol$10.9K

KALSHI

Fed Decision in January?

0.5 pt (24h)4mo

No change

58.6%

25 bps increase

-1.0pt23.1%

25 bps decrease

+0.5pt13.5%

+2 more outcomes

High quality (79)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$68.1K

24h Vol$5.5K

POLYMARKET

Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?

5.0 pt (24h)7d

55%

Yes

45%

Medium quality (61)Spread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

24h Vol$18K

FORECASTEX

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

2.0 pt (24h)6d

Pause–Pause–Pause

-2.0pt46.1%

Pause–Pause–Cut

-0.1pt1%

Cut–Pause–Pause

-0.8pt0%

+6 more outcomes

High quality (79)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$841K

24h Vol$4.8K

POLYMARKET

Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)

4.0 pt (24h)3mo

H 0

+4.0pt48.6%

H 25

-1.0pt39%

C 25

-1.0pt7.6%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (58)Spread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

24h Vol$17.3K

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

1.0 pt (24h)3mo

Anthony Fauci

+1.0pt38%

John Brennan

+2.0pt35%

Letitia James

16%

+38 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.5M

24h Vol$1.5K

KALSHI

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0.4 pt (24h)3mo

1 (25 bps)

+1.0pt42.1%

0 (0 bps)

28%

2 (50 bps)

23.4%

+3 more outcomes

High quality (75)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$296.1K

24h Vol$4.6K

POLYMARKET

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

1.9 pt (24h)3mo

95%

Yes

+1.9pt5%

High quality (79)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$594.9K

24h Vol$1.9K

KALSHI

Fed decision in September?

20d

Hike 25bps

50.7%

Fed maintains rate

44%

Cut 25bps

2.4%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (62)Tight spreadLiquidity unknownHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$194.3K

24h Vol$3.7K

GEMINI

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

3.1 pt (24h)21d

4.82%

-20.0pt56%

4.85%

-0.5pt42%

4.91%

+2.0pt27%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (63)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$9.3K

24h Vol$6.7K

POLYMARKET

Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)

1.0 pt (24h)1mo

H 0

+1.0pt63.3%

H 25

25.7%

C 25

5.5%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (56)Spread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

24h Vol$7.1K

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

3.4 pt (24h)3mo

4.0%

+0.3pt100%

3.9%

-0.9pt8%

3.5%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (70)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$247.4K

24h Vol$2K

POLYMARKET

How many dissenting votes at the September Fed meeting?

-1.0pt33%

-1.0pt16%

-2.0pt14%

+3 more outcomes

Medium quality (72)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$116.1K

24h Vol$3.7K

KALSHI

Who will be nominated as a Fed Governor in 2026?

6.0 pt (24h)3mo

Stephen Miran

+7.7pt14%

Kevin Hassett

11%

Michelle Bowman

+9 more outcomes

Medium quality (60)Wide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$235.2K

24h Vol$1.2K

KALSHI

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

0.7 pt (24h)1mo

No Change

-0.1pt89%

25 bps increase

-0.7pt11%

50+ bps increase

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (73)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$55.8K

24h Vol$4.2K

POLYMARKET

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

1mo

No change

81.2%

25 bps increase

-0.5pt18.8%

50+ bps decrease

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (50)Spread unknownMedium liquidity

Total Vol$76.7K

24h Vol$2K

POLYMARKET

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

11.5 pt (24h)3mo

↑ 6.50%

+13.4pt100%

↑ 6.30%

-1.5pt100%

↑ 6.20%

100%

+11 more outcomes

Medium quality (64)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$71.8K

24h Vol$1.8K

POLYMARKET

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?

0.7 pt (24h)3mo

95%

Yes

-0.7pt5%

Medium quality (56)Wide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$74.4K

24h Vol$1.4K

KALSHI

September 2026 Fed Combo: Rate and Dissents

Rate: No change, Dissents: >0

-4.0pt44.3%

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0

-1.0pt40.6%

Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0

11.3%

+3 more outcomes

Medium quality (70)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$84.5K

24h Vol$1.1K

KALSHI

Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?

5.0 pt (24h)23d

Above -25,000

94%

Above 0

85%

Above 10,000

82%

+10 more outcomes

Medium quality (63)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$32.9K

24h Vol$2.8K

KALSHI

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

2.7 pt (24h)3mo

↓ 3.5%

+0.5pt100%

↑ 4.25%

+1.4pt26%

↑ 4.5%

+2.7pt8%

+18 more outcomes

Medium quality (73)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.8M

24h Vol$541

POLYMARKET

Who will dissent at the September Fed meeting?

2.0 pt (24h)7d

Beth Hammack

-1.0pt43%

Neel Kashkari

-1.0pt42%

Lorie Logan

42%

+9 more outcomes

Medium quality (66)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$39K

24h Vol$1.5K

KALSHI

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

3mo

Dot Plot Omitted

38%

Reserve President Removed

17%

Presser Skipped

14%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (57)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$39K

24h Vol$1K

KALSHI

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by which date?

0.3 pt (24h)3mo

November 30

+1.5pt8%

December 31

+1.1pt7%

October 31

-0.5pt2%

+1 more outcomes

Medium quality (70)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$17K

24h Vol$2.2K

POLYMARKET

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

3.5 pt (24h)21d

Below 4.76%

-3.5pt77%

Below 4.73%

-8.0pt68%

Below 4.70%

-17.0pt51%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (62)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$9.4K

24h Vol$2.7K

POLYMARKET

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

1.8 pt (24h)3mo

-1.8pt96%

Yes

+1.8pt4%

Medium quality (74)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$13.7K

24h Vol$1.7K

POLYMARKET

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

1.0 pt (24h)1mo

Pause–Pause–Pause

-1.0pt34%

Pause–Pause–Cut

+0.1pt1%

Cut–Pause–Pause

+6 more outcomes

High quality (75)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$748.7K

24h Vol$268

POLYMARKET

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by which date?

4.0 pt (24h)3mo

December 31

-4.0pt13%

May 30

Medium quality (57)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$445.2K

24h Vol$408.9

POLYMARKET

Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in September 2026?

2.0 pt (24h)7d

Yes

56%

44%

Medium quality (56)Spread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

24h Vol$3.9K

FORECASTEX

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