Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

3.6 pt (24h)3mo

0 (0 bps)

+1.4pt96.9%

1 (25 bps)

-3.6pt2%

2 (50 bps)

-0.1pt1%

+10 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$52.7M

24h Vol$165.4K

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

7.0 pt (24h)1mo

No change

-7.0pt52.9%

25 bps increase

+8.0pt45.1%

25 bps decrease

-1.1pt1%

+2 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceNo change54%· 1 pt venue spread

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$4.7M

24h Vol$2.2M

POLYMARKET

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

0.1 pt (24h)3mo

Exactly 0 cuts

+3.2pt96%

Exactly 1 cut

-4.3pt3%

Exactly 2 cuts

-1.1pt1%

+18 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$9.3M

24h Vol$172.6K

KALSHI

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

7.0 pt (24h)1mo

Fed maintains rate

-7.0pt51.9%

Hike 25bps

+8.0pt44.2%

Cut 25bps

-1.0pt1.9%

+2 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.5M

24h Vol$614.9K

KALSHI

Fed rate cut by which date?

0.3 pt (24h)3mo

April

53%

July

51%

June

50%

+10 more outcomes

Medium quality (55)Spread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$3.7M

24h Vol$109K

POLYMARKET

Fed rate cut before 2027?

3.8 pt (24h)3mo

95%

Yes

-3.8pt5%

High quality (91)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.3M

24h Vol$100.1K

KALSHI

Fed Decision in December?

8.0 pt (24h)2mo

25 bps increase

+8.0pt67%

No change

-6.0pt29.1%

25 bps decrease

-2.1pt1.9%

+2 more outcomes

High quality (≤89)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$965.9K

24h Vol$122.6K

POLYMARKET

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

11.4 pt (24h)2mo

4.25%

+11.4pt50.5%

4.0%

-14.8pt21.6%

≥ 4.5%

-2.3pt17.5%

+12 more outcomes

Medium quality (62)Wide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$6.9M

24h Vol$13.1K

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

3mo

Anthropic

-0.7pt53.5%

SpaceX

45.5%

OpenAI

-0.1pt1%

+9 more outcomes

High quality (87)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$6M

24h Vol$9.6K

POLYMARKET

Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)

1.0 pt (24h)1mo

H 0

-1.0pt51.7%

H 25

+10.0pt39.2%

H 26

+1.0pt3.3%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (57)Spread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

24h Vol$245.4K

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

Fed decision in Dec 2026?

9.0 pt (24h)2mo

Hike 25bps

+9.0pt67.3%

Fed maintains rate

-8.0pt28%

Hike >25bps

1.9%

+2 more outcomes

High quality (80)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$368.3K

24h Vol$133.3K

KALSHI

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

2.2 pt (24h)3mo

98%

Yes

-2.2pt2%

High quality (82)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$636.6K

24h Vol$28.9K

KALSHI

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

19.5 pt (24h)3mo

2 (50 bps)

+19.5pt62.1%

1 (25 bps)

-27.5pt19.4%

3 (75 bps)

+8.8pt16.5%

+3 more outcomes

High quality (83)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$462.1K

24h Vol$40.5K

POLYMARKET

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

22.1 pt (24h)3mo

↓ 3.5%

+0.5pt100%

↑ 4.25%

+22.1pt73%

↑ 4.5%

+9.2pt24%

+18 more outcomes

Medium quality (54)Wide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.8M

24h Vol$7.5K

POLYMARKET

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

3mo

John Brennan

-2.0pt42%

Anthony Fauci

30%

Ilhan Omar

-3.0pt17%

+38 more outcomes

Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$1.6M

24h Vol$8.1K

KALSHI

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

22.6 pt (24h)3mo

4.5%

+11.2pt100%

4.6%

+4.9pt100%

4.8%

+7.9pt100%

+8 more outcomes

Medium quality (70)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$462.1K

24h Vol$20.7K

POLYMARKET

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

24.7 pt (24h)3mo

Exactly 2

+24.7pt64.4%

Exactly 3

+10.5pt24%

Exactly 1

-20.9pt11.5%

+10 more outcomes

High quality (82)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$120.7K

24h Vol$35.7K

KALSHI

Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)

13.0 pt (24h)2mo

H 25

+13.0pt64.9%

H 0

-5.0pt28.9%

H 26

-1.0pt3.5%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (56)Spread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

24h Vol$53.1K

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?

15.0 pt (24h)1mo

Above 2.75%

99%

Above 3.00%

99%

Above 3.25%

99%

+8 more outcomes

Medium quality (74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$90.2K

24h Vol$25.1K

KALSHI

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

16.0 pt (24h)2mo

Above 3.00%

+1.0pt99%

Above 2.75%

99%

Above 3.75%

+3.0pt98%

+8 more outcomes

Medium quality (74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$169.4K

24h Vol$12.6K

KALSHI

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

10.0 pt (24h)1mo

No change

-9.5pt78%

25 bps increase

+10.0pt21%

50+ bps increase

-0.6pt1%

+2 more outcomes

High quality (79)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$100.4K

24h Vol$11.6K

POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in January?

7.0 pt (24h)4mo

No change

-1.0pt54.8%

25 bps increase

+7.0pt28.9%

25 bps decrease

-1.5pt9.6%

+2 more outcomes

High quality (81)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$83.4K

24h Vol$11.5K

POLYMARKET

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

4.0 pt (24h)2mo

Hike–Pause–Hike

+11.0pt38.5%

Hike–Hike–Hike

+7.0pt25%

Hike–Pause–Pause

-4.0pt20.8%

+6 more outcomes

High quality (80)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$47.1K

24h Vol$13.7K

POLYMARKET

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

7.0 pt (24h)1y

Above 1.00%

98%

Above 1.50%

96%

Above 1.25%

95%

+18 more outcomes

Medium quality (66)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$49K

24h Vol$6.1K

KALSHI

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

3.5 pt (24h)3mo

+3.5pt96%

Yes

-3.5pt4%

High quality (78)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$24.1K

24h Vol$8.8K

POLYMARKET

Number of rate hikes in 2026?

3mo

Exactly 2

60.6%

Exactly 1

21.2%

Exactly 3

15.2%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (71)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$13.7K

24h Vol$13.7K

KALSHI

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?

5.5 pt (24h)13d

Below 5.24%

+15.0pt31%

Below 5.05%

-17.9pt9%

Below 5.00%

-13.8pt6%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (65)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$22.8K

24h Vol$5.6K

POLYMARKET

I bond fixed rate in November 2026

13.0 pt (24h)1mo

Above 1.0%

97%

Above 1.2%

+22.0pt91%

Above 1.4%

-13.0pt7%

+3 more outcomes

Medium quality (66)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$10.9K

24h Vol$7.6K

KALSHI

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

2.3 pt (24h)3mo

Below 4.0%

+0.3pt100%

Below 3.8%

-1.1pt6%

Below 3.6%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (68)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$272.5K

24h Vol$2.3K

POLYMARKET

Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?

7.0 pt (24h)1mo

Yes

55%

45%

Medium quality (51)Spread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

24h Vol$7.5K

FORECASTEX

Fed Rate Decision (Jul 2027)

12.0 pt (24h)10mo

H 0

-12.0pt64%

C 25

+25.0pt41%

H 26

+18.0pt21%

+2 more outcomes

Low quality (49)Spread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

24h Vol$6.5K

ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)

Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August

Above 0.00

76%

Above -0.10

+1.0pt75%

Above 0.10

49%

+4 more outcomes

Medium quality (60)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$5.9K

24h Vol$5.6K

KALSHI

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

2mo

Yes

80.2%

19.8%

High quality (82)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$5K

24h Vol$5K

POLYMARKET

Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?

6.0 pt (24h)3mo

7 or more cuts

33.3%

Exactly 5 cuts

-6.0pt32.3%

Exactly 6 cuts

31.3%

+3 more outcomes

High quality (76)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$116.6K

24h Vol$2.1K

KALSHI

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?

0.1 pt (24h)3mo

96%

Yes

+0.1pt4%

Medium quality (67)Wide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$179.7K

24h Vol$1.2K

KALSHI

Fed decision in Jan 2027?

7.0 pt (24h)4mo

Fed maintains rate

+7.0pt57.4%

Hike 25bps

+5.0pt21.3%

Cut 25bps

13.9%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (67)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$69.5K

24h Vol$2.7K

KALSHI

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

3mo

Above 6.6%

99%

Above 6.7%

99%

Above 6.9%

92%

+7 more outcomes

Medium quality (53)Wide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$57.1K

24h Vol$3.2K

KALSHI

Which central banks will hike before 2027?

5.0 pt (24h)3mo

US Federal Reserve

+5.0pt99%

Reserve Bank of Australia

92%

Bank of England

+7.0pt80%

+4 more outcomes

Medium quality (68)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$69.5K

24h Vol$2.2K

KALSHI

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

1mo

No Change

+0.8pt65%

25 bps increase

+1.7pt35%

50+ bps increase

+2 more outcomes

High quality (75)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$83.6K

24h Vol$1.5K

POLYMARKET

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

8.5 pt (24h)13d

4.82%

+45.5pt100%

4.85%

+18.1pt100%

4.88%

+58.0pt100%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (53)Moderate spreadLow liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$45.1K

24h Vol$2.9K

POLYMARKET

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

5.0 pt (24h)13d

Below 4.76%

-5.0pt7%

Below 4.64%

-1.0pt4%

Below 4.67%

-0.4pt3%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (68)Tight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$39.3K

24h Vol$3.3K

POLYMARKET

Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date?

0.3 pt (24h)9mo

June 30, 2027

-1.0pt10%

December 31, 2026

-0.3pt3%

Medium quality (71)Tight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$40.2K

24h Vol$3.1K

POLYMARKET

Fed decision in Jul 2027?

3.0 pt (24h)10mo

Fed maintains rate

+2.0pt81.3%

Hike >25bps

+8.0pt10.4%

Cut 25bps

-15.0pt4.2%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (66)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$55.3K

24h Vol$2.1K

KALSHI

Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?

5.0 pt (24h)4mo

Above 0.00%

98%

Above 0.25%

+1.0pt98%

Above 1.75%

+5.0pt97%

+15 more outcomes

Medium quality (59)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$55.8K

24h Vol$2K

KALSHI

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?

3.5 pt (24h)13d

5.30%

+3.3pt100%

5.33%

+27.5pt100%

5.36%

+49.6pt100%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (63)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$26.5K

24h Vol$4K

POLYMARKET

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

45.4 pt (24h)3mo

5.40%

93%

5.45%

-4.0pt77%

5.50%

+14.5pt47%

+6 more outcomes

Medium quality (60)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$20.1K

24h Vol$4.6K

POLYMARKET

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

3.0 pt (24h)3mo

Dot Plot Omitted

-3.0pt30%

Trimmed Mean Emphasized

11%

Presser Skipped

+1.0pt10%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (58)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$41.7K

24h Vol$1.7K

KALSHI

Central Bank of Colombia decision in September

8.0 pt (24h)12d

No change

+8.0pt52.8%

50+ bps increase

+1.1pt27.4%

25 bps increase

-1.9pt17%

+2 more outcomes

Medium quality (58)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$43.7K

24h Vol$1.5K

POLYMARKET

Related Crypto Assets

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Fed Decision in October?

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

Fed rate cut by which date?

Fed rate cut before 2027?

Fed Decision in December?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)

Fed decision in Dec 2026?

Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)

Fed funds rate after Oct 2026 meeting?

Fed funds rate after Dec 2026 meeting?

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

Fed Decision in January?

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

Number of rate hikes in 2026?

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in September?

I bond fixed rate in November 2026

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?

Fed Rate Decision (Jul 2027)

Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?

Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026?

Fed decision in Jan 2027?

How high will 30yr mortgage rate get this year?

Which central banks will hike before 2027?

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

Warsh out as Fed Chair by which date?

Fed decision in Jul 2027?

Fed funds rate after Jan 2027 meeting?

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Central Bank of Colombia decision in September

Markets people searched for