PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Pause–Pause–Pause
Resolved: Jun 17, 2026, 9:08 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current implied probability
Pause–Pause–Pause 100%+0.4ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$18.1K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknown7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 75 days ago
StaleJan 29, 26, 10:23 PMJun 17, 26, 12:00 AM
Probability Timeline
Pause–Pause–Pause100%
Pause–Pause–Cut0%
Other0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
- The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
- A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
- A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
- A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt56.4%
- No change-1.0pt41.6%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $76.9M
- 24h Vol
- $4.1M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt58.6%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt37.5%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $28.9M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+8.0pt55.9%
- Fed maintains rate-9.0pt39%
- Cut 25bps2.4%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $873.1K
KALSHIFed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Above 3.50%99%
- Above 3.25%99%
- Above 2.75%99%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $359.3K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.4pt88.1%
- 1 (25 bps)+2.0pt8.9%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.8pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes72%
- No28%
- Total Vol
- $8.4M
- 24h Vol
- $109.2K
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed Decision in October?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in September?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed Decision in December?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- What will Fed Gov Waller say during his Economic Outlook?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)?
- Polymarket prices Pause–Pause–Pause at 100% as of June 18, 2026.
- When does Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) resolve?
- Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) is scheduled to resolve on June 17, 2026.
- How is Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.