PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityNo change 71%+3.0%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$17.9K
Liquidity
$251.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
70.0% / 71.0%
Spread
1.4%
Tight spread7d Change
+6.0%
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jun 17, 26, 11:34 PMOct 28, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
No change71%
Compare venues· No change
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageMost active | 71% | — | $17.9K | $251.3K | 1 minute ago | |
 Kalshi | 66% | — | $2.5 | $22.6K | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Fed decision in Oct 2026?
13.0%3mo
-13.0%66%
8%
18%
+2 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$33.8K
24h Vol$2.5
KALSHIRules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$17.9kJul 27d of dataJul 8
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.