PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No change 84%+3.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
No change 84%+3.0ptMarket quality
≤89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$451K
Liquidity
$3.2M
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jun 17, 26, 11:34 PM UTCOct 29, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
- If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
- The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for No change is 84%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference No change 84% · 3 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Fed decision in October? · No change 82%
- Also available on Limitless — Fed Decision in October? · No change 84%
- Also available on Futuur — Fed interest rate decision — October 2026 · No change 81%
- Also available on Kalshi — Fed decision in Oct 2026? · Fed maintains rate 81%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — Fed rate decision in October 2026 · Fed maintains rate
