Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo change 69.5%+1.4ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+36.2 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 2, 26, 3:16 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 6:00 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate from its level immediately before the October 2026 FOMC meeting.
- The outcome is determined by the net basis-point change announced in the official March FOMC statement.
- If the Fed changes the rate by an amount not matching a displayed option, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 bps for resolution (e.g., a 12.5 bps move is treated as 25 bps).
- Resolution Sources:
- The official FOMC statement for the September2026 meeting:
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Limitless — Fed Decision in October? · No change 66%
- Also available on Kalshi — Fed decision in Oct 2026? · Fed maintains rate 65%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026) · H 0 63%
- Also available on Polymarket — Fed Decision in October? · No change 66%
Open markets
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.1%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.1M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt50%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt44.6%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt85%
- Before July 2027+5.0pt84%
- Before 2027+2.0pt75%
- Total Vol
- $3.9M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No87%
- Yes+3.8pt13%
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $47.9K
- Fed Decision in October?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Fed decision in October??
- Manifold Markets prices No change at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Fed decision in October? resolve?
- Fed decision in October? is scheduled to resolve on October 28, 2026.
- How is Fed decision in October? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate from its level immediately before the October 2026 FOMC meeting.
- Where else is Fed decision in October? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless, Kalshi, Robinhood (Rothera), Polymarket.