Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No change (97.9%)
Resolved: Oct 28, 2026, 7:05 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No change
At 7 days out
88%
At 24 hours out
94%
ConsensusProbability Timeline
No change97.9%
Decrease (25 bps or more)0%
Increase (25 bps or more)2%
Won
Lost
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate from its level immediately before the October 2026 FOMC meeting.
- The outcome is determined by the net basis-point change announced in the official March FOMC statement.
- If the Fed changes the rate by an amount not matching a displayed option, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 bps for resolution (e.g., a 12.5 bps move is treated as 25 bps).
- Resolution Sources:
- The official FOMC statement for the September2026 meeting:
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
