KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Maintain current rate 81.1%Leader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.5K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Aug 25, 26, 6:00 PM UTCOct 29, 26, 1:14 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
European Central Bank rate decision in September
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KalshiWill Christine Lagarde still be the president of the European Central Bank through the end of 2026?
FutuurWill the EU Deposit Facilities Rate be set above 1.9% at the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank ending September, 10, 2026?
ForecastExRules
If the European Central Bank takes the action of the named outcome at October ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Trading Economics
- The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank.
- For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count.
- If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
- The specific basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., "25-50bp" includes both 25bp and 50bp changes).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 · No change 90%
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for European Central Bank rate decision in October?
- Kalshi prices Maintain current rate at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does European Central Bank rate decision in October resolve?
- European Central Bank rate decision in October is scheduled to resolve on October 29, 2026.
- How is European Central Bank rate decision in October settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the European Central Bank takes the action of the named outcome at October ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is European Central Bank rate decision in October listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.
