PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No change 81.2%-9.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$25.9K
Liquidity
$22.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 4:03 PM UTCOct 29, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
ECB Interest Rates: September 2026
PolymarketECB Interest Rates: September 2026
LimitlessWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?
Manifold Markets🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — European Central Bank rate decision in October · Maintain current rate 81%
Open markets
Central BanksPOLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $512.1K
- 24h Vol
- $51.4K
KALSHIEuropean Central Bank rate decision in September
- Hike 1-25bps+1.0pt95.2%
- Maintain current rate+1.0pt1.9%
- Hike more than 25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $91.1K
POLYMARKETBank of Japan Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase-0.4pt97%
- 50+ bps increase+0.7pt2%
- No change-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate+3.0pt92.4%
- Hike 25bps-3.0pt1.9%
- Cut 50bps1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.2K
KALSHIBank of Japan rate decision in September
- Hike 25bps-1.0pt94.2%
- Hike more than 25bps+1.0pt1.9%
- Maintain current rate1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- H 0+1.0pt63.3%
- H 2525.7%
- C 255.5%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.1K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?
- Bank of England decision in September?
- Bank of Japan Decision in October?
- Fed Rate Decision (Jul 2027)
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
- Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
- Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision in September
- Bank of Brazil decision in November?
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for ECB Interest Rates: October 2026?
- Polymarket prices No change at 81% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 resolve?
- ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 is scheduled to resolve on October 29, 2026.
- How is ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- Where else is ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.