PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No change · —
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Stored reference
No change 98%Leader of 5 outcomes
No change 98%Market quality
78 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$61.1K
High liquidityOpen interest
$148.4K
Bid / Ask
— / —
No changeSpread
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Comments
0
7d Change
+1.8 pts
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 4:03 PM UTCOct 30, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · No change
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
Polymarket🇺🇸📉 Will the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its October 2026 meeting?
Manifold Markets🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed raise the rate 50bps or more in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExRules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for No change is 98%. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference No change 98% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
- Also available on Kalshi — European Central Bank rate decision in October · Maintain current rate 94%
- Also available on Limitless — ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 · No change 98%
