PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
25 bps increase 57.7%-0.5ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$693
Liquidity
$4.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 10:13 PM UTCDec 17, 26, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
PolymarketECB Interest Rates: October 2026
LimitlessWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastEx🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tumbles understand why raising interest rates lowers inflation? (before 2027)
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html).
- This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
- If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines.
- Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Limitless — ECB Interest Rates: December 2026 · 25 bps increase 56%
Open markets
Central Banks
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in October 2026
- Fed maintains rate-6.0pt46.8%
- Hike 25bps+11.0pt45.8%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt3.2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.1K
- 24h Vol
- $27K
POLYMARKETBank of Japan Decision in October?
- No change+3.0pt80.4%
- 25 bps increase-1.5pt16.7%
- 50+ bps increase+1.6pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index in September
- Above -0.62+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.60+5.0pt95%
- Above -0.58+7.0pt86%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: October 2026
- No change+1.0pt53.5%
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIBank of Japan rate decision in October
- Maintain current rate+19.0pt73.7%
- Hike 25bps-2.0pt16.7%
- Hike more than 25bps+7.0pt7.9%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in November
- Hike 1-25bps52%
- Hike more than 25bps3%
- Cut more than 25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $4.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.9K
- Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September
- South African Reserve Bank rate decision in September
- Bank of Canada decision in Dec 2026?
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August
- Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?
- US active housing listings in September
- Bank of Canada Decision in December?
- What will Fed Gov Barr say during his housing affordability address?
- Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
- Swiss National Bank decision in September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for ECB Interest Rates: December 2026?
- Polymarket prices 25 bps increase at 58% as of September 19, 2026.
- When does ECB Interest Rates: December 2026 resolve?
- ECB Interest Rates: December 2026 is scheduled to resolve on December 17, 2026.
- How is ECB Interest Rates: December 2026 settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
- Where else is ECB Interest Rates: December 2026 listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless.