KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 4.8% 93%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 9:00 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above 4.8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- The Underlying is the value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credit Data Bank for Auto Loans in the series “Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type.”
- Use the first value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for Q3 2026.
- Subsequent revisions will not affect the market.
- If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above 5.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above 5.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate43.8%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-2.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.9pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026?
- Kalshi prices Above 4.8% at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026 resolve?
- Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026 is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Auto-loan delinquencies in Q3 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q3 2026 is above 4.8%, then the market resolves to Yes.