KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityCut 25bps 7%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$661
Liquidity
$33K
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 8.0%
Spread
14.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Sep 29, 25, 2:00 PMOct 28, 26, 5:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Cut 25bps7%
Compare venues· Fed maintains rate
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall92% match · auto | Medium | 64% | — | $10.2K | $306.4K | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Medium | 64% | — | $661 | $33K | 21 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Fed Decision in October?
3mo
+1.0%64%
+1.0%21%
11%
+2 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$295.6K
24h Vol$10.2K
POLYMARKETRules
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No.
- Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$661Jul 220d of dataJul 21
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No.
- Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
- Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
- If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.