LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No change 83.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
No change 83.5%Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 10, 26, 8:20 AM UTCOct 28, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome · the named outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
- The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket.
- (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued.
- If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "the named outcome" bracket.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for No change is 84%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference No change 84% · 3 venues · 1 pt venue spread
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Fed decision in October? · No change 83%
- Also available on Futuur — Fed interest rate decision — October 2026 · No change 81%
- Also available on Kalshi — Fed decision in Oct 2026? · Fed maintains rate 81%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — Fed rate decision in October 2026 · Fed maintains rate 80%
- Also available on Gemini — Fed decision in October? · Fed maintains rate
